Does a safe Martingale exist ? - page 18

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I will say yes : Proelio = Safe Martingale :)

 
loverotten:

I will say yes : Proelio = Safe Martingale :)

Is it? :):):)

Is this what you are talking about : https://www.mql5.comhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability_theory)

Or this : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

Suppose a gambler has a 63 unit gambling bankroll. The gambler might bet 1 unit on the first spin. On each loss, the bet is doubled. Thus, taking k as the number of preceding consecutive losses, the player will always bet 2k units.

With a win on any given spin, the gambler will net 1 unit over the total amount wagered to that point. Once this win is achieved, the gambler restarts the system with a 1 unit bet.

With losses on all of the first six spins, the gambler loses a total of 63 units. This exhausts the bankroll and the martingale cannot be continued.

In this example, the probability of losing the entire bankroll and being unable to continue the martingale is equal to the probability of 6 consecutive losses: (10/19)6 = 2.1256%. The probability of winning is equal to 1 minus the probability of losing 6 times: 1 − (10/19)6 = 97.8744%.

The expected amount won is (1 × 0.978744) = 0.978744.
The expected amount lost is (63 × 0.021256)= 1.339118.
Thus, the total expected value for each application of the betting system is (0.978744 − 1.339118) = −0.360374 .

 
In this paper, a general way to compute the density of the arithmetic average of a Markov process is proposed. This approach is then applied to the pricing of average rate options (Asian options). It is demonstrated that as long as a closed form formula is available for the discount bond price when the underlying process is treated as the riskless interest rate, analytical formulas for the density function of the arithmetic average and the Asian option price can be derived. This includes the affine class of term-structure models. The CIR (1985) square-root interest rate process is used as an example. When the underlying process follows a geometric Brownian motion, a very efficient numerical method is proposed for computing the density function of the average. Extensions of the techniques to the cases of multiple state variables are also discussed.
 
AngelGirl:
Your luck might work for some time, but you'll certainly run out of it.
All is in the size of your account
 

Very interesting EA was published today on CodeBase - 

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Ingrid Martingale - expert for MetaTrader 5

If there are no positions opened by this advisor in the market, this situation is called “zero reading”, that is, the starting point of a new work cycle. On the "zero counting" decision to open a position is applied based on the calculation of the Pivot Point (the calculation is taken from the Pivot Points EA code).

  • if bar # 2 punched support level R1 down, and bar # 1 closed above this level - a signal to open BUY
  • if bar # 2 pierces resistance level S1 up, and bar # 1 closes below this level - a signal to open SELL
 
yes it exist.depends on how and when you use it!
 

the safest way maybe to split the risk per trade. for example, if your risk per trade is 10% with 1000$ ballance.

and you trade with 0.1 lot size, then we can split that to 0.02 for five times, or 0.01 for ten times.

thats only my opinion. correct me if im wrong.

 
Abdul Barrud Darovi #: if your risk per trade is 10% and you trade with 0.1 lot size,… correct me if im wrong.

The statement makes no sense. Risk depends on your initial stop loss, lot size, and the value of the symbol. You can't risk 10% and 0.1 lots. One determines the other.

Never risk more than a small percentage of your trading funds, certainly less than 2% per trade, 6% total.

  1. You place the stop where it needs to be — where the reason for the trade is no longer valid. E.g. trading a support bounce, the stop goes below the support.

  2. AccountBalance * percent/100 = RISK = OrderLots * (|OrderOpenPrice - OrderStopLoss| * DeltaPerLot + CommissionPerLot) (Note OOP-OSL includes the spread, and DeltaPerLot is usually around $10/PIP, but it takes account of the exchange rates of the pair vs. your account currency.)

  3. Do NOT use TickValue by itself - DeltaPerLot and verify that MODE_TICKVALUE is returning a value in your deposit currency, as promised by the documentation, or whether it is returning a value in the instrument's base currency.
              MODE_TICKVALUE is not reliable on non-fx instruments with many brokers - MQL4 programming forum (2017)
              Is there an universal solution for Tick value? - Currency Pairs - General - MQL5 programming forum (2018)
              Lot value calculation off by a factor of 100 - MQL5 programming forum (2019)

  4. You must normalize lots properly and check against min and max.

  5. You must also check Free Margin to avoid stop out

  6. For MT5, see 'Money Fixed Risk' - MQL5 Code Base (2017)

Most pairs are worth about $10 per PIP. A $5 risk with a (very small) 5 PIP SL is $5/$10/5 or 0.1 Lots maximum.

 
risk management is the key to any system performance
 

this is a terrible comparison, you can trade a martingale system on a 1:100 leverage account with $10k and profit around 4% a month with trading 0.01 lot sizes... the problem with martingale is size and capital... the smaller your size and the larger your capital the more you minimize risk. you dont have to 2x every entry either a 1.3 or 1.5 for example are just as effective. if you can access a larger account preferably without a "max daily loss" and just "a max loss" while trading small, 0.01 0.02 you can still profit a nice monthly profit  

key components in a successful martingale are:
LEVERAGE
CAPITAL
TRADE SIZE
MULTIPLYER 

JUST THINK, A 100K ACCOUNT WITH 1:100 LEVERAGE TRADING MICRO LOTS WITH A 1.3-2X MULTIPLYER show me that blowing on any demo or test 

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