My Forex Prediction using Advanced GET - page 54
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Kenneth,
Questions:
EURJPY Daily: Would you term it as an extended 5th with an ending diagonal? If so, this is what I read from Pretchers book : Fifth Wave extensions, runcated fifths and diagonal traingle al imply the same thing: dramatc reversal ahead'.
Further questions
EURUSD: Counting in the weekly doesnt seem to follow strict EW counting. Wave 2 ending seems to be near the start of Wave 1 start. Though I understand that is allowed, shouldnt the end of Wave 1 around the end of 2008 be near where the B is?
And also in the weekly, do we take it as Wave 3 has ended? If so, should we be expecting a corrective 4th?
Combining this with EUR/JPY, we see that a weakness in Euro is imminent.
Kenneth,
Questions:
EURJPY Daily: Would you term it as an extended 5th with an ending diagonal? If so, this is what I read from Pretchers book : Fifth Wave extensions, runcated fifths and diagonal traingle al imply the same thing: dramatc reversal ahead'.To answer your question, we have to first determine whether: HAS PRIMARY WAVE [5] ENDED?
If the answer is Yes, then the answer to your question is: it is not an extended Primary Wave [5].
I have a counter question to ask:
How do you determine that Primary Wave [5] has ended? What technical tools do you use? Have you used these tools to do so?
Two principal tools to use are:-
FIBONACCI RATIOS: Using the Table of Fibonacci Relationships, we find that the height of Wave [5] from Wave [4] has almost hit 0.618 of the combined length of Wave [3] from its base of a previous bottom Wave [5]. and since then ie from June 5 to todate, none of its price movements were able to go beyond that Wave [5] level over a period of 4 months – that is not very positive.
I cannot remember whether Prechter has mentioned in his book the reason behind a wave extension. It is this: THERE IS SUSTAINED BUYING.
If there is sustained buying, we should NOT be seeing shrinking daily bars.
On the other hand, is this not a typical pattern of an Ending Diagonal? For the benefit of readers, I am attaching what an ending diagonal of a Wave [5] looks like. Does the diagram and the EW chart for EURJPY look idential; if so, it is an Ending Diagonal of Wave 5; if no, then it is not. Let readers judge for themselves and let me know.
ELLIOTT WAVE OSCILLATOR: Finally, we use EW Oscillator to do the job for us. In the atacchment, you will see a falling oscillator from Wave 3 to Wave 5 – that is an indication that Wave 5 has ended or going to end.
If Wave 5 is extended, we should be seening a RISING Oscillator, not a falling oscillator.
General: I hope I have answered sufficiently in detail why I conclude that Wave [5] is over and that EURJPY is now in a state of consolidation. Prices are purely hanging around without that type of “omphh” in a rising Wave 5.
You have asked a very good and tough question and unless we know our stuff, it will not be easy to answer. My answers are normally or abnormally long-winded, as I am a detailed man.
Kenneth
(PS: I have to go off for my morning walk. After that breakfast, and then I have to go to church and will only be back home around 3:30 pm; have my siesta, dinner at 8:00 pm and then relax to watch TV. No more replies for the day.)
I was searching for the ending diagonal but never could figure out where.. Maybe Gann68 you want to post a graph of what you mean?
Thanks Kenneth. Appreciate the time you take to explain things. It always helps beginners like myself to have this long explanation and I can see your logic and it is spot on.
EW Oscillator is a really good tool. What I didnt know is that for an extended 5th the Oscillator will be RISING and will not fall, like for the normal 5th. Combining that Fib Ratios gives the 'weight of evidence' ..your favourite words :-)
I was searching for the ending diagonal but never could figure out where.. Maybe Gann68 you want to post a graph of what you mean?
Hi GreatYves,
I have heard that many of these EW tools actually change the wave counts as more new information comes in, in form of new price data. So my thinking was whether the current 5 that we see would get shifted to the end of the series of ABC's that we now see. If you join the first C with the last C after Wave 5 and the C and the B on the top, it looks like a triangle...like an ending diagonal triangle.
I have attached the pic. Yet to figure out how you guys place it in the post itself, instead of an attachment.
A statistical study that I came across suggesting that fib ratios are over exaggerated and actually never subscribed to Ellioticians:
http://www.socionomics.org/pdf/EW_Fibo_Statistics.pdf
Would be great to have the views of those who are actively trading using Fib principle.
Please also see Goel's analysis, supporting Fib ratio's occurrences in markets.