My Forex Prediction using Advanced GET - page 67
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Attached are the charts for 4 currency pairs. GBPJPY has been excluded as the chart was dated Oct 19, 2009 when it should be updated to Oct 23, 2009 - I do not know what happened to the forex data update.
EURJPY: This will continue to be a BUY since Primary Wave [3] is established.
For day traders, however, you enter your trade when prices are moving UP, not when prices are moving Down. This is to ensure prices are moving in the SAME DIRECTION as the Primary Wave.
EURUSD: I still prefer to Stay Aside on this pair though its trend is still very much intact - this means I will neither Buy nor Sell.
Using Fibonacci Ratio to calc, it is likely to end Wave [5] around 1.5309;
GBPUSD: Because of the weakness of the Pound, and chartwise this will continue to be a SHORT.
USDJPY: This will be a BUY as it is in Primary Wave [3] Up. For day traders, you will not place any buy orders until price movements are Up in line with the Primary Wave direction.
General: For Position Traders, you will need to follow the guidelines on Entry Points in our articles on Sat and Sun.
Good Trading
Kenneth
Thanks kenneth for great articles. Keep them coming. Its a very good knowledge base. I'm converting all these to pdf for future reference.
As a case study, I am going to use Elwave to produce the Wave Counts for 30 min time frame, and look at the respective Entry Points for various Wave Degrees and see how well they will perform by the close of the NY market.
Attached is a chart for EURJPY 30 min. Based on the Elwave chart, we shall be a BUYER of this pair.
We can be (1) a Minute Wave v trader, (2) a Minuette Wave 3 trader or (3) a Subminuette Wave iii trader.
Minor Wave v Trader:
We have missed our entry point at Minor Wave iv of 137.60, so we have to move down to a lower level of subwave ie Minuette Wave degree to do our entry.
Minuette Wave 3 Trader:
Here again, we have also missed our entry point at Minuette Wave 2 at 137.75, so we will move down to the next lower level of subwave ie Subminuette Wave ii to do our entry which is at 137.87; At current quote of 138.02 (which is 15 pips higher than our entry point of 137.87) we can enter our trade and our Stop Loss will be at 137.82;
At the time of writing, the quote is 138.02 and likely to head for 137.75 which is Minuette Wave 2 support level which will be OUR ENTRY POINT and our Stop Loss will be 5 pips BELOW our entry point, and see what happens at the end of the NY session. (Alternatively, we can wait for prices to hit 137.69 to do our Entry as this is Minor Wave iv support level with our Stop Loss at 5 pips less.
General: I myself have not traded in this manner before but based on Elliott Wave Theory, Waves 2 and 4 are the best entry points. Personally, I prefer to be a Minor Wave Trader than a Minuette Wave Trader or a Subminuette Wave Trader as at these 2 levels their support levels can be easily broken.
Kenneth
Here an alt wave count view of eurjpy,
GreatYves,
How can we get EW counts on MT4, as shown in your chart? Should any separate plugin's be downloaded? I quite like the counts that is shown in the chart.
Thanks, GreatYves.
This Aternate Wave Count is even "fantastic". These are the possibilities:-
1. When the chart pattern is a Triangle in an Elliott Wave ie after Wave e, prices are going to ZOOM UP since the Wave e is the last leg down in the triangle within Wave B.
2. It will BREAK THROUGH WAVE A of the ABC. According to Elliott Wave Theory, it is going to be a dramatic C.
Putting the pieces together, whether it is Primary Wave [3] Up per the chart I put up OR WAVE C per this chart, IT IS ALSO GOING UP.
And it is certain [3] or C will NOT end so soon. So, I can continue to LONG this pair but make sure I do not enter at a time when the Daily Bar is moving down ie a bearish candle - that is how I do my entries in a LONG trade.
KennethThe only trouble with this alternate count is that diagonal triangles occur normally at termination. Quoting Jeffrey Kennedy (one of the senior analysts at EWI), because diagonal traingles are terminating waves, they can NEVER occur in the Wave B position of a corrective pattern.
Attached are the charts for 4 currency pairs as GBPJPY is "out of action" due to data still showing up to Oct 19, 09.
EURJPY: Although the Primary Wave is [3] Up, there are 2 technical signs I do NOT like ie (1) a long BEARISH candle and (2) the 5-3-3 Stochastics starting to hook below 80 level.
There is likely to be a retracement in which case I would STAY ASIDE for the moment until signs are clearer that the uptrend will resume.
EURUSD: The technical signs are picking up that the uptrend may not be as smooth as before ie (1) a long Bearish candle and (2) a Stochastics that is going down.
Very likely a CORRECTIVE mode ABC will take place.
GBPUSD: This pair will continue to be a SHORT as the Fibonacci Ratio of 1.618 ie 1.5214 is far down meaning it still has a long way to do down.
USDJPY: The pair is getting stronger in its PRIMARY WAVE [3] UPtrend heading for FR 1.618 of 93.11;
Its 5-3-3 Stochastics is strong, though above 80 level and normally interpreted as overbought is likely to remain above this level.
This will be a BUY. Fundamentalists may like to look at both US and Japanese fundamentals to find out the reason for the buying demand that is depicted in EW chart.
Elwave Chart: Later I will be continuing to show the Day Trading for EURJPY using 30 min to see how it unfolds today.
Kenneth
The only trouble with this alternate count is that diagonal triangles occur normally at termination. Quoting Jeffrey Kennedy (one of the senior analysts at EWI), because diagonal traingles are terminating waves, they can NEVER occur in the Wave B position of a corrective pattern.
I've pick this wave count on 5WAVES - the home of elliott wave analysis.
But that trend line have just proven very tough to brake true. A reversal is possible.
Did we make or break yesterday Mon Oct 26, 09 when we used Elwave's Wave Counts to day trade EURJPY on 30 min Elwave charts????
Background:
As a day trader, the Wave Degrees that we use to make our Entries are differrent from those used by a position trader. The position trader uses Primary, Intermediate and Minor Wave Degrees using Daily charts, whereas a day trader with time constraints uses much short time frames such as 4 hr, 1 hr, 30 min etc. and he uses lower levels of subwaves such as Minor Wave Degree, Minute Wave and Minuette Wave degrees as his Entry Points.
Entry Points – Waves 2 and 4:
In all cases, Wave 2 and Wave 4 are their entry points but unfortunately in practice it is difficult to pin point whether indeed these retracements are over. Fibonacci Ratios are used. EW pundits have used 31.8% for Wave 2 and 61.8% for Wave 4 or vice versa. But there have been situations where these levels have been broken, and we are stopped out. After we have been stopped out, the trend resumes making a mockery of our entries.
Alternative Entry Points – Waves 2 and 4 PLUS/MINUS 15 Pips:
To eliminate the abovementioned type of situations where prices go below Waves 2 and 4, we will take another approach by waiting and making sure that indeed the retracement is over. And we do so by Adding/Subtracting 15 pips from those Waves 2 and 4 levels.
Highest was: 138.48
We went in as a Minor Wave Trader but at as we have missed out the Minor Wave entry level:-
So we enter at:-
Minute Wave Level
Wave iv Entry: 137.60 + 15 pips = 137.75
Gain = 138.48 minus 137.75 = 73 pips
Stop Loss = Entry Point minus Wave iv level minus 5 pips
ie 137.75 – (137.60-0.05) = 20 pips
Risk Reward Ratio = 73/20 = 3.65x
Minuette Wave level
Wave 2 Entry: 137.75+15 pips = 137.90
Gain = 138.48 minus 137.90 = 58 pips
Stop Loss = 20 pips ie 137.90-137.75+0.05
Risk/Reward = 2.90x
SubMinuette Wave level
Wave 2 Entry: 137.75+15 pips = 137.90
Gain = 138.48 minus 137.90 = 58 pips
Stop Loss = 20 pips ie 137.90-137.75+0.05
Risk/Reward = 2.90x
General: Despite the fact that ultimately the EURJPY went down, but there was a period of time BEFORE it went down, that it hit a high of 138.48;
Without being greedy, if we have a STOP LOSS of 20 pips and a Target Profit of 50 pips, these would have been achieved, giving us a gain of 30 pips or 1.5x Risk/Reward ratio.
Kenneth
(Probably this Sat we will summarize the essential differences in trading approach between Day Trading and Position Trading.)
I've pick this wave count on 5WAVES - the home of elliott wave analysis. But that trend line have just proven very tough to brake true. A reversal is possible.
Many thanks GreatYves.