My Forex Prediction using Advanced GET - page 63
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My Second trade today was GBPUSD which I sold at 1.5956 and bought back at 1.5932 making a gain of 24 pips or US$240.00 within 7 hours 7 mins.
Although GET did not give any Sell signals on this currency pair, the Elliott Wave chart from GET shows it is in Primary Wave [3] DOWN and my comments were "Continue to SHORT. It is ONLY THE BEGINNING."
So for today, my 2 trades total a gain of 66 pips or US$712.12;
I am calling it a day and off to sleep. Tomorrow shall attach details of my transactions.
KennethAttached is a doc file containing my transactions for the above pairs yesterday.
Kenneth
I admit i have not been analyzing elliots wave too much, this week i resumed at PA/trend following/Fibonacci method witch is working for me. Elwave is good at identifying strong trend, but my prefered indicator (adaptivelaguerre_v2.1) is as good. I feel comfortable using it on a triple screen system. But i recently found the courage to go daily and i don't regret it, untill i can go full time to daytrading, the daily is the only time frame natural to me. I can trade it stress free, keep my day job and still makes lot of pips! Nice monthly/weekly/daily signal on Guppy bullish. And watch out for cable, I buy it on the next up break. I think there should be another major correction on stocks markets as the reality is getting way out of sync with this new bull (corrective) market. The economy is not picking up as fast as the indices would want it. The U.S.$ should U-TURN if that happen. A mater of weeks...
Introduction:
In my early days of experimenting the different settings/parameters in GET, I soon discovered that changes in these variables DO AFFECT WAVE COUNTS sometimes “drastically” and made me wonder (1) is there an “ideal” setting and if so, what should these be? (2) where the wave counts differ due to differences in wave counts, what could have been their causes? And (3) where these (wave count differences) occur, does it have any EFFECT ON THE OVERALL DIRECTION OF THE MARKET?
Answer: The answers are important as it will affect my trading decision.
Individually, the settings can differ from individual to individual to suit his trading style. When we open a New Chart, the software asks for (1) Bars – 300 (default), (2) Period: Daily and (3) Find Last Date – automatic. And the DEFAULT Elliott Wave property is ORIGINAL(?). For normal purposes, this would suffice.
The fields where an user normally makes changes are in (1) Bars. If this is changed to 500, 1000 or 2000, the Wave Count starts at the same point somewhere away from the First Bar of the number of bars used irrespective whether it is 500, 1000 or 2000. There is no Starting Date for user to specify and the GET software automatically starts its Wave Count from a particular point. No details are given in the manuals although I observed GET focuses on the later bars of the chart to do its wave count. This is fine enough for trading purposes (which I myself have been using for years now.
Ideal Setting: What do I mean “an ideal” setting? Personally, it should be such that by using this ideal setting/parameter, I should get ANY CHART be it for (1) currency pair, (2) DOW, (3) Hang Seng, (4) Nikkei and even (5) our Malaysian stock market THAT THE BULL MARKETS for any of these financial markets SHOULD END MORE OR LESS AT AROUND THE SAME TIME, give it a few months of time lag.
In my presentation of “Where Will You Put Your Money To Make It Grow” back in August 22 this year, I attached some charts showing these markets ended their bull run one after the other, starting in July 2007.
If we can get such a confluence of such patterns, then that would be an “ideal”. The criteria will be that the Wave Count STARTS FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE TIME PERIOD specified in the Settings parameters and not start somewhere away from its beginning.
The setting/parameters are as follows:-
1.Using LOCALIZE option in EW icon in GET software
2.Using GET's ORIGINAL option in Properties of EW icon
3.Using 1000-2000 bars as the end of the last bull run in 2007 will suffice
Attached is a chart to show what I mean. We are still in the midst of a BEAR MARKET and that bear market has not completed its wave cycle yet.
Causes in Wave Count Differrences: This is the result of using different settings/parameters. The Wave Counts begins at “different” points in time. It does NOT start at a SPECIFIC DATE.
Attached are another 2 charts showing THE SAME STARTING POINT but using different parameters. These are:-
Chart 2:
1.Using ORIGINAL setting
2.Using 2000 Bars
Chart 3:
1.Using ORIGINAL setting
2.Using 500 Bars
Despite the differences in the number of bars, the Wave Count of these 2 charts start at the same point and NOT at the beginning of the number of bars?? This is one of the “peculiar” feature of GET.
However, by Using LOCALIZE setting, the Wave Count begins at the Start of the Number of Bars.
OVERALL DIRECTION: When we use LOCALIZE option, the current Wave Count is Wave [4] with Wave [5] in formation ie a BEAR MARKET.
Using the parameters in Chart 2 and Chart 3, the current Wave Count is Wave [3] Down with Wave [4] in formation.
The MAIN POINT is that all the charts are pointing a BEAR MARKET. In Bear Markets, we SHORT but we stay aside while it is in Corrective mode ie Wave [4].
Unfortunately, I do not have a working Elwave software now to test all these but in general, the ideal setting should be such that you get a confluence of all the major financial markets having their last bull run similar to that display in Chart 1 attached. And using that, you compare the Elwave chart with the GET chart.
Kenneth
NOTIFICATION: TIME TO COMPARE DAILY/WEEKLY CHART CHANGES
A question that arises in my mind is in view of the price upheaval in both the GBPUSD and GBPJPY, how has it affected the Weekly EW Charts.
Have these price surges in the Pound disturb/disrupt the basic Wave Counts in their Elliott Wave structures.
This evening we shall take a look at both the Weekly and Daily EW charts to find out the position and how we may have to adjust our trading strategies to any new situations.
I have always regarded stock market tradiing and forex trading like engaging in a battle. We cannot fight a war without an overall war plan and sufficient resources.
Kenneth
The last 2 days of last week have seen volatility in GBPJPY and GBPUSD on news that BoE may pause the QE program (quantitative easing program) and fueled the surge in the Pound by as much as 250 to 300 pips in a single day. Such type of price volatility has not been seen for some time.
What were the Daily and Weekly EW charts telling us? It is time once again to do a comparison between the Daily and the Weekly EW charts.
Attached you will find a doc file containing both the Daily/Weekly charts for our 5 currency pairs.
Always Remember: THE WEEKLY charts will dictate the OVERALL DIRECTION of the market and the Daily charts to work out the details.
Here are my views on each of the currency pairs:-
EURJPY: The Daily chart displays it is in Corrective mode. However, the last 7 bars have been moving up.
Looking at the Weekly chart, the Bear Trend is still NOT over. It has only completed its Wave [4] Up which is a Contra Trend or Retracement to the main trend. Wave [5] Down is in formation.
EURUSD: The Daily chart shows EURUSD is still in a strong uptrend with an earlier Ending Diagonal pattern totally disappeared as fresh data input comes in.
The Weekly chart shows it is in a Corrective mode. But Looking at the last few bars of Wave [C], there is still the possibility of it going up further as I do no think the subwave 5 has hit its peak.
GBPJPY: In the Daily chart, Subwave 4 has only retraced 38.2% and will make an attempt to hit the FR of 50-61.8% levels.
The Weekly chart shows this pair is in a Bear Trend and here again I am skeptical it has retraced its full extent.
GBPUSD: The Daily chart shows it is in Corrective mode but the last 4 bars have been moving up.
The Weekly chart shows it is in a Bear Trend and that it is not over yet as the last Wave Count is Wave [4].
USDJPY: The Daily chart shows it is in Wave [5] Down. Has it completed its downpath??
The Weekly chart shows it is in a Bear Trend with Wave [4] completed and Wave [5] in formation. Reconciling these 2 charts, it is unlikely that the Wave [5] in the Daily chart has completed yet.
General: Other than EURUSD, all the other 4 currency pairs are in a BEAR trend based on Weekly charts. You short when the market is going down and not when it is going up in a corrective mode (in which case you are going against the Contra Trend).
Kenneth