My Forex Prediction using Advanced GET - page 19
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Thanks Kenneth for the pdf`s.. I hope you were able to catch some pips on your longs. Not such a good week for currencys.
I am a collector of important world economic news. Has a library of them saved. Anytime can scan a copy for your reading.
Now about trading, as most of the EW charts are turning bearish, this morning I have short 2 curency pairs - GBPJPY and USDJPY (1 lot each) and made about US$650.00;
Although I wanted to stay aside, succumb to temptation to trade. Sometimes cannot control myself also lah - hehehe. I am as human as anybody else.
I have been busy compiling data and statistics for the Theory of Statistical Odds, so that I can share with readers. Just completed the data for 2009 from Jan to Jul. I intend to go as far back as to 2001.
Shall keep readers informed from time to time.
Thanks for your posting, GreatYves.
Regards
Kenneth
SOS - Trojan Horse in my Get software
I need urgent help from my readers.
My Get software has been infected with Trojan Horse Generic 14 UUU.
How can I remove this trojan horse? I shall be in problem if my Get software is not functioning.
Any help, please.
Thanks
Kenneth
Morning, Guys:
Sorry for the delay.
Trying to fix the "Trojan Horse" problem last nite.
How come NO ONE COME FORTH to help. OR is it readers just do not know how to solve the problem????? I thought we are finished and I have to stop posting in this thread. What a pity it will be after 1 month of hard work and for what????
Anyway, thanks to GreatYves who has given some indirect help through his PM, and we are now back in business.
I am attaching herewith the EW charts for the 9 currency pairs.
Today again there is a long list of economic data release (no end to this) and I am staying aside unless I cannot resist the temptation to give it a try.
Have a good day
Kenneth
Theory, Hypothesis and Observation:
World Economies:
When a country's economy is strong, its currency should also be strong.
If it's economy is weak or uncertain, so will its currency be weak or uncertain.
China has a strong economy but they have kept it undervalued to maintain their exports – an example of government manipulation – that is what the USA is accusing them of doing.
The Japanese Government has the habit of entering the forex market from time to time “to adjust” their Yen to a level that there is not too much complaint against them.
Britain is more cautious nowadays about forex interventions since the Soros epic.
USA, Japan, Eurozone and Britain are all having a tough and rough time trying to get out of their recession, and with weak economies because of recession, their currencies have also weakened.
World Stock Markets – USA, FTSE and Nikkei: With the onset of recession, world financial markets have taken a dive, notably DJI, S&P500, FTSE and Nikkei (the major world stock markets) and others.
The Dow, S&P500, FTSE and Nikkei were all enjoying a jubilant bull market from around March 2003 to October 2007 during the boom years in world economies – a period of about 5 years. World economies were growing and bright forecasts of future GDP growth were made all over.
Investors and “expert” investment advisors all seem to have forgotten about financial history. Boom is not here forever, and market excesses will always be corrected. There is no such thing as continuous world economic growth without retracements. Elliott Wave theory says: “3 steps forward, 2 steps backward”. Lessons from history are always relevant.
Whatever the reasons given, when the truth dawns upon the public, THE SELLING STARTED in October 2007 and financial markets plunged mercilessly. Within less than one and a half years, fortunes were wiped away and we were back to where we first started.
Market Recovery: Experts and economists are debating whether the worst is over and whether the DOW is going to enter into a new bull phase – debating and debating. It never stops.
Q: Are world financial markets entering a new bull market OR is it correcting the first wave when the market dived from Oct 07 to Oct 08.
A: Attached are the EW WEEKLY CHARTS for DOW, S&P500, FTSE and NIKKEI. One look at the charts, readers of this thread will be able to answer that question. We do not have to be experts. I keep the answer to myself.
And after the present Wave 4 is over, what would you expect??? Let the picture chart tell the story.
Forex Market:
The relationship between world economies, stock markets and forex markets are relevant to us as forex traders. Q: What trading strategy can we use to capitalize on such a relationship?
I have already established the close relationship between world economies and their stock markets and have provided the relevant EW charts to co-relate that relationship. As readers will have noticed, the charts of Dow, Ftse and Nikkei go very well with world economic growth and economic burst.
We will now examine the relationship of world stock markets and their currencies.
Our observation of world economic behavioural pattern is that when world economies grow, their currencies should also grow in the same way as stock markets follow economic growth. And when their economy slows down or reversed gear, so will both their stock markets and their currencies.
Conclusion:
As you can see from the Elliott Wave Weekly Charts, both the major currencies and their respective stock markets MOVE IN UNISION. Economic data is always slow to come by. They are normally released weeks or months later, by which time it has become history. However, both the stock markets and forex markets will react immediately. Whilst economists and experts in US were engaged in debates about their housing boom and their subprime mortgages problems, both the stock markets and the forex market STARTED THEIR DECLINE in October 2007 (some as early as in June/July 2007).
The lesson is this. When we see world equity markets falling – check your Weekly Charts (especially if you have Advanced Get or any other EW softwares) whether a Wave 5 has topped. (Fibonacci ratios will help). Funds are moving out of equities and probably out of the country. The DOLLAR will follow suit. SHORT the Dollar.
The recent rally that we saw in Dow is NOT that the economy is recovering or starting to boom again and the US is entering a new bull market, BUT RATHER it went up because it is in an Up Contra-Trend Wave 4 to the sharp Down Wave 3 that struck from Oct 08 to Jun 09.
When the current Wave 4 (on a weekly chart) is over, heaven knows what will happen. I shall be SHORTING the Dollar against other major currencies.
Kenneth
Hi, Guys:
Later in the evening (probably around 4:00-4:30 pm EST), I shall be posting the EW Daily Charts and the Weekly Charts for our 9 currency pairs, and examine the differences (if any) between them for the purpose of identifying the main trend of our trading currencies.
Until then,
Kenneth
Attached are the EW charts for 7 currency pairs. I have dropped the USDCAD and USDCHF to reduce the portfolio to a more manageable size. Too much work and time involved, eats into my private leisure time.
AUDUSD: Both the Weekly and Daily EW Charts show they are in Wave 4. The Weekly chart shows it has touched FR 1.618 whilst the Daily chart shows an Engulfing Bearish Candlestick.
If commodity prices fall, the Aussie Dollar will follow suit. Commodity prices will be the clue.
GBPJPY: The Weekly and Daily EW charts are a replica of one another – both showing Wave 4. The Weekly shows Wave C to be a flat, and unless prices push above the A and C resistance line, it is heading south.
Fundamentally, Britain is far behind in its economic recovery whilst Japan, Eurozone and US have been releasing encouraging economic news.
A weak economy and a weak currency go hand in hand. Read our article on Economies and Their Currencies posted earlier.
GBPUSD: The Daily chart is showing it is in Wave 5 Up whilst the Weekly shows it is in Wave 4 contra-trend.
The rally in the Pound in the Daily chart is the rally in the Weekly chart that started around Jan 23 this year, and it has hit above FR 1.618. There is nothing fundamentally bright to push it higher compared with the economic situation in US.
EURGBP: Nothing exciting about this currency pair, chartwise.
EURJPY: Both Daily and Weekly charts show prices moving within a range. Whenever prices are in a range, Elliott Wave-wise, it is in a Correction Phase – that means stay away. Normal technical analysis suggests using a Ranging method to trade. Buy at lower boundary and Sell at Top border.
EURUSD: For the Daily chart, this Wave 5 is an extended Wave 5 and is getting exhausted. It is forming within the Weekly Chart of an A, B, C. ie within C the last leg of the corrective phase.
USDJPY: Since the Daily and Weekly Charts go different ways ie not in line with one another, then CAUTION rules.
GENERAL: ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT GOLD. The rallies that we are seeing are deceptive in both equity markets and forex markets amidst a background of economic uncertainties and glimmers of hope. It has led many to think that the financial markets have bottomed, and that the bull run has started.
The sharp rally that follows a sharp plunge can turn out to be a “trap” for the uninitated.
Kenneth
Correlation of Fundamentals, Stock Market and Forex
Kenneth37,
You made a great work, thank you for sharing your thoughts with the members of this forum.
I mostly agree with your conclusions, although I have to admit I do not know much about Elliot Wave analysis, I never had intention to study it deeply enough.
I agree that the fundamentals of the US, UK and Eurozone do not back a long rally in the stock market. Anyway, did you take into account that the USD usually becomes stronger if the stock market indeces fall when you said "I shall be SHORTING the Dollar against other major currencies."? (The reason for that strengthening is the risk aversion that comes into play when the stock market indices decline.)
Regards,
Chrisstoff
NOTIFICATION: Comparison of EW Charts between Aug 15 and Aug 8
I shall be putting a posting tomorrow around (10:30-11:00 am EST) on a comparative study of the EW charts between Aug 15 and Aug 8 to give us some clues as to the direction of market for next week, especially whether there are any significant signs of improvement or deterioration in their wave formations.
By doing two types of comparisons ie (1) between Daily and Weekly charts and (2) between last Fri and the previous Fri, it will give us a clearer picture and feel of the market. Time does not permit me to do a further comparison of (3) Weekly charts and Weekly charts between the two time periods.
Until then
Kenneth
Kenneth37,
You made a great work, thank you for sharing your thoughts with the members of this forum.
I mostly agree with your conclusions, although I have to admit I do not know much about Elliot Wave analysis, I never had intention to study it deeply enough.
I agree that the fundamentals of the US, UK and Eurozone do not back a long rally in the stock market. Anyway, did you take into account that the USD usually becomes stronger if the stock market indeces fall when you said "I shall be SHORTING the Dollar against other major currencies."? (The reason for that strengthening is the risk aversion that comes into play when the stock market indices decline.)
Regards,
ChrisstoffThanks, Chrisstoff, for your posting. I hope to reply you in more detail tomorrow evening EST.
It is truly a joy to me to see reader members joining in the discussion in this thread.
Regards
Kenneth
No comment..
Here's and Hourly eurusd chart with analysis. Comment's welcome.