Jet's Personal Trading Journal - page 6
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Thank you for the input. I am going to do some research on the subject as I am sure this has been discussed many times before on public forums.
I do agree that price movements are not random, especially after important news releases...but how the price rises or falls when markets are obviously reacting to fundamentals may perhaps be quite random or based on human psychology and not much else...
These recent thoughts have put a halt on my trading until I straighten them out in my mind. I am sure the end result will be modification of my current strategy and understanding of the market.
Perhaps the market switches between randomness and nonrandom behavior. This requires modification to my current strategy.
Ummm...perhaps I didn't make this very clear in my previous post.
Perhaps the market switches between randomness and nonrandom behavior. This requires modification to my current strategy.
Of course, if the market didn't fluctuate between the 2 behaviors, then we'll all be f'king rich. Right?
The trick is to figure out how to make your entry, have the balls to hold it during the randomness, and profit when the market goes back into the nonrandom behavior. This trick is what ~15% of traders do very well. I firmly believe in the 85/15 rule of failure vs success rate.
Hahaha, I guess that indeed is the stick. Lots of think about here...
What is trend? What is a reversal of trend? How do you quantify biases? What is randomness what is meaningful data? How do you separate the two?
Of course, if the market didn't fluctuate between the 2 behaviors, then we'll all be f'king rich. Right? The trick is to figure out how to make your entry, have the balls to hold it during the randomness, and profit when the market goes back into the nonrandom behavior. This trick is what ~15% of traders do very well. I firmly believe in the 85/15 rule of failure vs success rate.
^LOL. If you ever get an answer to those question, you'll be the oracle and unlock the secrets to the whole market.
When you figure out those questions, please pass on those answers to me as I would like to be the Master of the Universe...I mean...Market.
To me, there are 2 types of successful traders:
1) People who take calculated risks based on price action. They use TP and SL with a favorable reward/risk ratio. Coupled with money management strategies, they are stacking the odds in their favor.
2) People who think outside the box and don't use price action, and find the exploit they need to trade the market. They create a system around this exploit. This is what the chartist in your scenario is not looking at.
But to be honest, this month has been terrible for me. I'm currently down 15% of my account this month. And I don't think I'm trading for another couple days. I'm glad and thankful the previous few months has been very good to me. It has been an unprecendented few weeks, I've never seen moves like this ever. The prices were whipping around, opening with huge gaps, and just overall random. I hope the past few weeks is not the reason why you are comtemplating changing your system. To me, it has been an outlier. I will shut down my system for a few more days, revaluate how price is moving in this market, and probably go right back in head first. I'm not going to let an outlier make me change my strategy...not yet at least.
Kenny and Jet,
I thought you guys might find the following attachment interesting, based on your current discussion...
This is how you make 870% return. And this is how you leave a mark in this industry. I love this, I just HAD to post it.
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
As of today, I'm back at 0% on the month. Most people are probably like....What is this fool talking about? He's happy to breakeven??? LOL.
I saw my open trades today at +$2k, so I got cautious and manually closed all the trades instead of letting my winners run with my system. Turned out to be a pretty big mistake. The piker in me got the best of my nerves. As it turns out, my trades would have been +$8k if I had just left it alone, and it may have taken my trading to a new level by providing a cushion where I can springboard off of. I've been waiting for this kind of homerun trade, but instead, I chickened out and I fear this may cost me big time in the coming chop when this monster trends dies off.
I'm thankful for the gain, but I also know I missed a big opportunity. The moral of this story is you have to trust your system completely when you put your real money on the line, if you have any doubts, it will cost you, either in losses or lost opportunites.
But to be honest, this month has been terrible for me. I'm currently down 15% of my account this month. And I don't think I'm trading for another couple days. I'm glad and thankful the previous few months has been very good to me. It has been an unprecendented few weeks, I've never seen moves like this ever. The prices were whipping around, opening with huge gaps, and just overall random. I hope the past few weeks is not the reason why you are comtemplating changing your system. To me, it has been an outlier. I will shut down my system for a few more days, revaluate how price is moving in this market, and probably go right back in head first. I'm not going to let an outlier make me change my strategy...not yet at least.
Very interesting, I did not find any details on profit or loss though. Maybe I missed it.