Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - page 102
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It is highly predictable (next value is 90% of cases within an average range value - daily and weekly charts the percentage is even higher - unlike some time series that does not have any constraint as far as the next value is concerned), and as such (not being random) it is only natural to check it for cycles. I do not think that there is anything in forex time series that is extreme I am not telling that it can be 100% predictable (knowing the possible range of values and knowing the exact change of price is a completely different thing) but as far as I am concerned, I can live with cycles that I can calculate from that time series
If You are a trader or economist, the only research target You have is a PREDICTION (of time series). It is well-known that no bank is making profits on forex from the prediction of price. They make profits from spread.
Why is forex an extreme situation?
The forex is an extreme situation from the point of it's prediction - because it is forex,- by a nature of this market.
If You are a trader or economist, the only research target You have is a PREDICTION (of time series). It is well-known that no bank is making profits on forex from the prediction of price. They make profits from spread. The forex is an extreme situation from the point of it's prediction - because it is forex,- by a nature of this market.
About "no bank is making profits on forex from the prediction of price" : you mean there are no things like these (this is just one example for Morgan Stanley - which is founded and owned by J.P.Morgan & Co- no need to tell what J.P.Morgan & Co is) :
EUR Finally A Funder; Staying Short EUR/USD - Morgan Stanley (and thousands and thousands of similar information for each and every major bank of the world)
As of "extreme" : as far as I see you are using math - "because it is forex" can hardly be qualified as any kind of math proof that forex is an extreme when it comes to time series
good luck
Banks earn revenue in forex from position trading, providing liquidity, market maker activities etc.
I also have my doubts UltraBanker is well-informed enough to know which algos Renaissance Technologies are/were using.
The more I read from UltraBanker, the less impressive it gets.
I recall a message from "Heretic" game:
"with the destruction of the iron
liches and their minions, the last
of the undead are cleared from this
plane of existence.
those creatures had to come from
somewhere, though, and you have the
sneaky suspicion that the fiery
portal of hell's maw opens onto
their home dimension.
to make sure that more undead
(or even worse things) don't come
through, you'll have to seal hell's
maw from the other side. of course
this means you may get stuck in a
very unfriendly world, but no one
ever said being a Heretic was easy!"
I think it is pretty applicable to Forex and Forex trading forums.
I recall a message from "Heretic" game:
"with the destruction of the iron
liches and their minions, the last
of the undead are cleared from this
plane of existence.
those creatures had to come from
somewhere, though, and you have the
sneaky suspicion that the fiery
portal of hell's maw opens onto
their home dimension.
to make sure that more undead
(or even worse things) don't come
through, you'll have to seal hell's
maw from the other side. of course
this means you may get stuck in a
very unfriendly world, but no one
ever said being a Heretic was easy!"
I think it is pretty applicable to Forex and Forex trading forums.Fantastic
For a moment I though that I am reading the traders joking thread, but then remebered that one member posted this "By Ultrabanker as a sales pitch for his up and coming commercial venture." and then all became clear
First of all I wish to sincerely thank you. Thanks you for clarifying why you got so much unanswered letters. If you used arguments like the above story explaining why "forex is an extreme" and why "Fourier method is considered as non-usable today." all my doubts of reasons why no answers to letters are clarified now, so thank you again
And I wish you all the possible luck with whatever you are attempting to sell - with math arguments like the educational story you were so kind to share with us, you are going to need every little bit of a luck you can get
cordial (undead) regards (not playing the game you are mentioning, but I can imagine that it is fantastic and that it explains all that happens in forex world)
... If you used arguments like the above story explaining why "forex is an extreme" and why "Fourier method is considered as non-usable today."...
IF NOT?
This is only a tail of a long story.
Who cares now? USA and western world is going straight direct into the hell.
Elizabeth Cohen from AES ignored Dr. Diamond and responsible audio engineers. Japan electronics industry ignored all my articles, and OTHER articles by respectful audio engineers.
Digital sound, based on Fourier method, distorted the music world, killed modern music. Fourier method distorted the entire math and engineering world.
James Simons and RenTec made a huge fortune on alternative spectral methods in trading and refused to disclosure them or use them for the good of the society.
And now ... a dozen of forex traders are trying for several years to fit forex time series on this forum by ... the same Fourier method (which is failed in other areas of science and engineering, and it is well-known to scientists around the globe).
Who cares of my arguments now? Personally I dont care of the acceptance of my arguments.
Good bye.
Ultabanker, we might care about your arguments if you actually posted something of substance but you have not. I have been using various spectrum analysis techniques in my trading for more than 10 years and now you start posting that everything is wrong and that you have the answer. On this I will openly disagree with you. Honestly, I could not care less about music sampling and compression, this is a trading forum. If you have found something that works for you then great. Use it, make money and enjoy life.
If on the other hand you would like some recognition for your discovery, you could start by posting a chart. A picture does not reveal the algorithm behind it but it could spark interesting debate and we would start to understand better what the hell you are talking about.
My guess is that you have not posted a chart because there is nothing to see. More words are not going to change my mind. If you have decided to leave the thread then I wish you all the best.
Alex
Digital sound, based on Fourier method, distorted the music world, killed modern music.
I don't know for the rest, but as for music, he is right. If you've ever listened to a DSD recording, you would understand that the digital crap we've had so far has just ruined music. But huguesfleming is right too, this has nothing to do with trading...
By the way I may understand a bit of what he talks about. I am not an engineer, so take my words as profane ones. But I guess the analogic problem is the division of price movements in fixed time series (which is not really a problem, but also not the best way to do it). The music industry has done that also with the PCM compression and the results were not as good as they could be because the sounds had to be divided in segments and then recalculated before rendering. While DSD, as far as I understand it, does not segment in fixed timeseries but rather uses a fixed amplitude. So in one scale you have a fixed time and a floating amplitude (which gives crappy results because it distords the soundwaves that are in reality not fixed in their development in time) and in the other you have a fixed amplitude but a floating time. This last one is better, at least for music, but not sure this can be applied for market data, though I'm sure it would be awesome...
I would like to point out to just one difference : music (any natural sound) is analog. Forex time series never ever was analog. It is discrete (even tick charts). Comparison of the two is possible only "at the surface".
Fixed amplitude and floating time sounds like Renko ?
I don't know for the rest, but as for music, he is right. If you've ever listened to a DSD recording, you would understand that the digital crap we've had so far has just ruined music. But huguesfleming is right too, this has nothing to do with trading... By the way I may understand a bit of what he talks about. I am not an engineer, so take my words as profane ones. But I guess the analogic problem is the division of price movements in fixed time series (which is not really a problem, but also not the best way to do it). The music industry has done that also with the PCM compression and the results were not as good as they could be because the sounds had to be divided in segments and then recalculated before rendering. While DSD, as far as I understand it, does not segment in fixed timeseries but rather uses a fixed amplitude. So in one scale you have a fixed time and a floating amplitude (which gives crappy results because it distords the soundwaves that are in reality not fixed in their development in time) and in the other you have a fixed amplitude but a floating time. This last one is better, at least for music, but not sure this can be applied for market data, though I'm sure it would be awesome...