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hi
you must know the trend direction if you didn't use indicator or naked trading ...
to turn looser into winner position ..
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Forex Indicators Collection
you must know the trend direction if you didn't use indicator or naked trading ...
to turn looser into winner position ..
===================
Forex Indicators CollectionThat is the common assumption yes. It is not necessarily correct. The reality however is that because no one knows where the price will go after one opens a trade the exact probability of making money is 50%. This is true even if the price is in a strong trend at the time and you open the position in the direction of the trade. You still have 50% probability of being correct. You can say that because the price is in a trend you have say a 60% chance of hitting your profit target and making money but this is only a mental comfort and does not bear out in reality. Even if you trade with the trend and win 9 times in a row you had 50% odds all the way. An indicator can predict where the price can go, but we cannot predict when the indicator will be correct. Thus 50% odds. I know many will disagree with this and I invite discussion on this topic, of course I hope I am wrong about it. However, that is why I am making this simple trading system, to see if we can use the 50% chance and still build an account.
As for the trades that I have taken so far in this thread, they have all been random.
Latest trade was a buy on USD/JPY, cosed it at 22.5.
So we are at $86 now.
You looked for a "random way" EA, maybe you should contact this person :
Random Forex Trading - Expert Advisor - Forex Blog
The last trade I did last night closed at 3:50 this morning for positive 100 pips, which brings us to $180. This one I did not choose at random. I used the simple method I described above and got a 4, which told me to buy. Turned out to be the right move this time. I didn't want to use USD/JPY again so soon so I took EUR/JPY even though it was pretty expensive at 4 pips. It's 1 day moving averages cancelled each other out because it was below the 100 MA but above the 10. It's 4 hour MAs were both above the price, lending 2 to the score, and it's 1 hour MAs were both above the price, making the total score 4.
Right now I'm doing this simple analysis for USD/JPY.
1 day chart shows the price below both moving averages=2.
4 hour chart shows the price below both moving averages=2
1 hour chart shows the price below the 10 MA but above the 100=0
Total is 4 which tells me that the currency pair has been showing a bias towards down ticks, for how long that will last no one knows, but I'm selling. The neutral 1 hour chart should make this interesting. If it bounces off of that 100 MA it could form a support there and send the price into an uptrend.I did this last night on E/U, G/Y, E/Y, and U/Y and all were showing long. i did not actually demo the trades, but woke up this morning and saw that they all would have been positive in a big way. Good stuff!
Chris
The last trade I did last night closed at 3:50 this morning for positive 100 pips, which brings us to $180. This one I did not choose at random. I used the simple method I described above and got a 4, which told me to buy. Turned out to be the right move this time. I didn't want to use USD/JPY again so soon so I took EUR/JPY even though it was pretty expensive at 4 pips. It's 1 day moving averages cancelled each other out because it was below the 100 MA but above the 10. It's 4 hour MAs were both above the price, lending 2 to the score, and it's 1 hour MAs were both above the price, making the total score 4.
Right now I'm doing this simple analysis for USD/JPY.
1 day chart shows the price below both moving averages=2.
4 hour chart shows the price below both moving averages=2
1 hour chart shows the price below the 10 MA but above the 100=0
Total is -4 which tells me that the currency pair has been showing a bias towards down ticks, for how long that will last no one knows, but I'm selling. The neutral 1 hour chart should make this interesting. If it bounces off of that 100 MA it could form a support there and send the price into an uptrend.
Of course the price will do what it wants.
You looked for a "random way" EA, maybe you should contact this person : Random Forex Trading - Expert Advisor - Forex Blog
Very nice, thank you. I think I can tweak this to do exactly what I need it to, and if not ill contract the services of a coder here. Thanks allot.
I did this last night on E/U, G/Y, E/Y, and U/Y and all were showing long. i did not actually demo the trades, but woke up this morning and saw that they all would have been positive in a big way. Good stuff! Chris
Awesome! Just remember guys that this will only give you an edge if, and I mean if the market continues going in the same fashion that it has been. We all know that it can reverse at any time. That post about the random-walk theory of market behavior is very interesting because it suggests that price movements are 100% random and thus can never really be predicted. I don't have much faith in technical analysis myself anymore but I will say that I don't think the market can ever be really 100% random, that seems silly to me. There are people-in the form of huge banks-behind the price movements. So the logic of my little MA analysis is that if there is a human force that caused the currency pair to tick more in one direction then in another for the last several days then perhaps that force will remain in effect long enough for us to get some pips out of it. If not, we move on. But we can't predict whether the driving force of the market will remain in our favor or not with the limited information that we have at hand. I see no reason for technical analysis to be any more complicated then that, and I used to be really heavily into complex systems. Anyway, the trade I opened today (EUR/JPY) was at positive 10 when the market closed. I don't know if it went higher while I was out, I didn't check the charts. All in all though it's been a pretty good week trading simple.
Your idea is far from being stupid.
for example for the year 2007 :
EUR/JPY
timeframe : M30
bearish candles = 5834 (47.1%)
equal = 567 (4.6 %)
bullish candles = 5983 (48.3 %)
you are in a SUM ZERO GAME, as for the Roulette (Black or red, odd or even) the zero is the "house edge" as the spread is the 'broker edge" and you have to consider the right timeframe for the right range/spread ratio.
(xcuse my bad english)
Your idea is far from being stupid.
for example for the year 2007 :
EUR/JPY
timeframe : M30
bearish candles = 5834 (47.1%)
equal = 567 (4.6 %)
bullish candles = 5983 (48.3 %)
you are in a SUM ZERO GAME, as for the Roulette (Black or red, odd or even) the zero is the "house edge" as the spread is the 'broker edge" and you have to consider the right timeframe for the right range/spread ratio.
(xcuse my bad english)Thank you. Wow, those are some pretty telling ratios right there. If only it went up for half the year and then down the other half. Your English is good.
Very good point about range/spread ratio. I am having much a pretty good time using a wide stop loss so far.