Simple Trading - page 4
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Hi cylclesurfer,
Another point, for a random order , you have to take place at the tributary point of the two rivers (Bull river and Bear river), at the middle point of the intraday Max/Min.
Ask yourself this question : what is the best moment (on average) to make a random and "surebet" (with a reasonable goal or TP) for the next 24 hours ?
If you manage Excel's macro , it's not so difficult to find it for each currency pair.
For 2007 and EURJPY , on average, the best moment is : 8:15 GMT.
Regards.
Hi cylclesurfer,
Another point, for a random order , you have to take place at the tributary point of the two rivers (Bull river and Bear river), at the middle point of the intraday Max/Min.
Ask yourself this question : what is the best moment (on average) to make a random and "surebet" (with a reasonable goal or TP) for the next 24 hours ?
If you manage Excel's macro , it's not so difficult to find it for each currency pair.
For 2007 and EURJPY , on average, the best moment is : 8:15 GMT.
Regards.Cool duxis, interesting points. That sounds allot like what J charts is supposed to do but I've never tried their software.
So is this the idea?:
The progression is like that yes, but I'm using the same stop loss and take profit on all of the currency pairs that I'm trading (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD..must be below 4 spread) and I don't have any hard rules about when to take profit if you aren't going to wait for it to hit 100. I'm trying to keep this as simple as possible while achieving profit>loss. My hunch is that with a stop loss of 100, while trading in the direction of the trend, more often then not the trade will see some profit so the trader must use discretion as to whether to allow it to go for 100 or rather to take the profit that it's at right now. I do advise that the more rules we add and the more complex it becomes the worse it will perform, in my opinion. Keeping in mind that there are 500 pips to a level one must gauge the worth of every trade made. For example, if a trader gets into a very slow mover and after several hours it is at a small 10 pip profit while it has been negative 20 in the hour before, they may decide to close that trade and move on. A comfortable balance between risk and trade frequency must be found. For example, it may be prudent to some to close every trade at positive 10 pips and move up a level every 50 trades, while knowing all the while that a single negative 100 pip trade would set them back quite a bit. Scalpers-like myself-may see this as a fair trade because with each level they are gaining more earning power in their spending money account (the idea is to trade two accounts at the same time, one that goes up all the levels and one that goes up much more slowely, with profits being sent to the traders bank account about 60% of the time. In this way they are building wealth while creating income) because they can make several of these trades in a working day. If they make 10 of these trades in an 8 hour period they may expect to move up a level once every 11 days or so if they hit profit target about 70% of the time. Others may prefer ultimate simplicity, and set the stop loss and take profit and come back to it the next day to see how it did. Using this method, if they hit a string of perfect trades they would hit a new level in 5 days, or it could be as long as month depending on how the market treats them. The important thing to me is that the simple entering criteria (MA direction checking on multitime frames) produce just enough of an edge so that the system will work if giving enough time. No one should expect to ever get rich in a day, or a month, unless you win the lottery.
Cyclesurfer,
Thanks for the thought and the time to explain your method. Your writing style is very complete and thought provoking.
Thanks again,
ES
Random trading
Here's an experiment I'm carrying out..
I have 6 pairs on the platform. I take trades on each pair completely at random (equal lot size on each), with no regard for anything. Completely random. No TP, no SL.
I attach a utility called CloseALL (on this forum) that closes all open trades when the equity shows a small net profit.
Then I do it again.
After 2 weeks it's working surprisingly well; lots of small profits and not much DD. This approach is working better than a lot of other EAs I'm using.
If I run into some danglers (haven't yet) I'll hedge them off until the balance allows me to close the hedge at BE or a small profit.
I imagine if some simple analysis (even eyeballing) was done it would be more effective, but I'm sticking with random for now.
Here's an experiment I'm carrying out..
I have 6 pairs on the platform. I take trades on each pair completely at random (equal lot size on each), with no regard for anything. Completely random. No TP, no SL.
I attach a utility called CloseALL (on this forum) that closes all open trades when the equity shows a small net profit.
Then I do it again.
After 2 weeks it's working surprisingly well; lots of small profits and not much DD. This approach is working better than a lot of other EAs I'm using.
If I run into some danglers (haven't yet) I'll hedge them off until the balance allows me to close the hedge at BE or a small profit.
I imagine if some simple analysis (even eyeballing) was done it would be more effective, but I'm sticking with random for now.If you have enough capital I think that would work really well. The capital requirement would get pretty big though if you include hedging capabilities for each trade at once. (12 lots) Since the likelihood of each trade going negative at once is low-albeit still possible-I think you could pull some pretty good coin from the market this way. I'm sure you are thinking of it, but I suggest applying a stop loss because that one big bad trade will happen. It would take allot of patience to use this with a progression (level 1, level 2, so on) because of the margin requirements but I think it would have a high enough rate of success to make it worth trying, especially if you have the resources to automate it. I agree that your hit rate will improve with some basic trend analysis. Random it may be, but what's the harm in trading with the trend when you have 50/50 odds anyways?
Great ideas.
Cyclesurfer,
Thanks for the thought and the time to explain your method. Your writing style is very complete and thought provoking.
Thanks again,
ESThank you Electric! I try to be of service when I can.
The USD/JPY trade from Friday is still going. At market open yesterday it shot up steadily from 10 to 79 pips by the time I was ready to hit the sack. I decided to let it run through the night, seeing as how it was so close to profit target. It had fallen to two pips when I checked it at 2 PM today and now it's sitting at 10 pips again. If it doesn't start to show some life in the next hour or so I'm going to close it for whatever it's at (unless negative of course) and head for greener pastures.
Thank you Electric! I try to be of service when
I can.
just comment about your sign:
The advanced trader knows and understands that the perfect trading strategy is one that makes pips, not miracles. Build a fortune, 15 pips at a time.//"To be a successful trader you must keep your cool at all times and take money from aroused amateurs." (Dr. Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room)//Fortune favors the bold, but the markets favor the disciplined.
I never see Elder say that on his book, 15 pips at a time? it's better to use other Elder phrase, something like this:
Is you loss in daily timeframe shorter timeframe will make you loss faster.
I never see Elder say that on his book, 15 pips at a time? it's better to use other Elder phrase, something like this: Is you loss in daily timeframe shorter timeframe will make you loss faster.
Just the second part is a quote from elder.