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EURNZD
Commentary - A triangle is unfolding from the September high at 2.0056. Triangles unfold in 5 waves (a-b-c-d-e) and wave d is close to complete. Therefore, expect additional consolidation in wave e (down) before a terminal thrust higher in larger wave C completes the entire rally from the July low at 1.7029. Potential support is the 1/17 low at 1.8869. This outlook is in line with the other EUR/commodity currency pairs -- that is, expect a drop now that gives way to a big rally.
Strategy - Bullish, against 1.8510, target is above 2.1122 (July 2006 high)
EUR/USD Daily Technical Reports
EUR/USD-strategy is to buy till levels of 1.4850, failure to break this level will be a strong signal to sell the pair
Technical Oscillators that supporting the bullish tendency:
MACD after a bullish crossover, long EMA broke the zero line up
RSI tendency is bullish stands at 64.69% pointing to overbought levels
MA after a bullish cross
Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD
GBP/USD 1.9782
GBP/USD Open 1.9763 High 1.9844 Low 1.9498 Close 1.9737
First and strong resistance for the Cable today is 1.9890. Next is the top from 28 December at 1.2010, followed by 2.0110, where the 500 day crawling middle line passes. In downward direction support is expected at 1.9630, which is 37.8% correction of the climb 1.9340 - 1.9820. Next is the bottom from Wednesday 1.9480, and 1.9370, where the 100 week crawling middle line passes, which reacted on Tuesday but was not convincingly broken.
Technical resistance levels: 1.9890 1.2010 2.0110
Technical support levels: 1.9630 1.9480 1.9370
Trading range: 1.9770 - 1.9855
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.9782 SL 1.9750 TP 1.9842
Today we made already +60 pips profit on GBP/USD from the following signal:
6:07 GMT Buy GBP/USD at 1.9776 SL 1.9750 TP 1.9836 TP reached at 7:37 GMT
Informative thread
Thank for all you do..will continue to monitor and contribute to this valuable thread. The thead alerted me to GBP and i made postive pips on friday.
Tyme2Jam
Daily Technical Strategist
EURUSD
Although the recovery off the 1.4364 low posted on the Jan 22'08 has seen EUR break and close above its key resistance at the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09'07/Dec 11'07 on Thursday, holding above that area is now needed to increase further strength towards its Mid- Jan'07 high at 1.4921.A turn above there will set the stage for an acceleration towards its 2007 high at 1.4967 ahead of the 1.5000 level, marking its psycho level. The daily studies remain in alignment with the above scenario as they are heading higher. On the downside, a failure to convincingly break and hold above the 1.4751/52 zone will call for lower prices towards its Jan 01'08 low/.618 Ret (1.4310-1.4921 rally) at 1.4577/45 initially and later at the 1.4446/45 zone, marking its .786 Ret/daily 100 ema followed by the 1.4310 level, its Dec 20'07 low .Further support levels are located at the 1.4278 area, its Sept 28'07 high and then the 1.4014/00 zone, its Oct 09'07 low/psycho level. On the whole, EUR continues to maintain its MT uptrend but requires a sustained invalidation of the 1.4751/52 area and the 1.4967 level to trigger that uptrend.
Support Comments
1.4577 Jan 01'08 low
1.4446/45 .786 Ret/daily 100 ema
1.4310 Dec 20'07 low
1.4278 Sept 28'07 high
Resistance Comments
1.4751/52 Nov 09'07/Dec 11'07 Highs
1.4921 Jan 15'08
1.4967 2007 Peak
1.5000 Psycho Level
GBPUSD
GBP continues to strengthen its current recovery off its Jan 22'08 low at 1.9335 breaking through its solid resistance level at the 1.9653/23 area, its Aug 17'07 high/.50 Ret (1.8091-2.1160 rally)/Jun 08'07 low on Thursday and testing the top of its falling channel in early morning trading today. While another resistance stands at the 1.9879 area, its Sept 18'07 low, a breach of the mentioned channel top is required to put that level in danger of being tested. If that occurs and a successful turn above there materializes then a run at the 2.0000 level, representing its psycho level is likely. Daily RSI and Stochastics remain positive and continue to trend higher. Downside targets are seen at the 1.9753 level, its Dec 24'07 low followed by the 1.9653/23 area, which marks its Aug 17'07 high/.50 Ret (1.8091-2.1160 rally)/Jun 08'07 low ahead of the 1.9498/81 area, its weekly 100 ema/Jan 11'08 low and next the 1.9335 level, its Jan 21'08 low. All in all, the present upside recovery remains corrective of its medium term downside and the pair should head lower on completing the said correction.
Support Comments
1.9653/23 Aug 17'07 high/.50 Ret (1.8091-2.1160 rally)/Jun 08'07 low
1.9335 Jan 22'08 low
1.9498/81 Weekly 100 Ema/Jan 11'08 low
1.9271 .618 Ret
Resistance Comments
1.9879 Sept 18'07 low
1.2000 Psycho Level
1.2094 Daily 200 ema
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.51; (P) 212.27; (R1) 213.40;
GBP/JPY's rebound from 204.49 was limited at 214.00 and retreats from there continues today. With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top is in place and outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 214.00 will indicate rebound from 204.49 is still in progress for inner falling channel resistance (now at 218.96). On the downside, however, below 207.05 minor support will indicate that rise from 204.49 has completed and will bring retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top is formed at 251.09 after completion of a medium term head and should top pattern (ls: 241.47, h: 251.09, rs: 241.35), with the medium term trend line support taken out too. In other words, the whole up trend from 148.19 should have ended at 251.09 already. Having said that, as long as the current rebound is limited below 221.25 support turned resistance, the fall from 241.35 should still be in force.
However, a short term bottom is in place after GBP/JPY was supported by double channel support, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Firm break of 204.49 is needed to confirm recent down trend has resumed for psychological support at 200, which overlaps with next medium term fibo support of 50% retracement of 148.19 (006) to 251.09 (07 high) at 199.64. Otherwise, further consolidation could still be seen with risk of another rise before completion.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.77; (P) 157.44; (R1) 158.35; More.
EUR/JPY's rebound 152.11 was limited at 159.12 so far and retreat from there continues today. An intraday top is in place there with 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 159.12 will indicate rise from 152.11 is still in force and for 162.27 resistance and above. However, below 154.83 will argue that rebound from 152.11 has completed in corrective three waves manner to 159.12 and will encourage retest of this low first.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY has turned into sideway consolidation after medium term up trend was limited at 168.93. It's still early to conclude whether such consolidation has completed. On the one hand, sustained break of 168.93 high is needed to confirm that the medium term up trend has resumed. Otherwise, another fall could still be seen before completing the consolidation. On the other hand, below 152.11 will suggest that fall from 167.72 is still in progress to retest 149.27 low before completion.