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Attached is a screenshot for a backtest I did of the "join the dots" system. Eur/Usd, 4 hr, 2007, 30 pip stop loss, .3 lots, TP at various points for test.
The circled areas identify failed trades (stop outs) due to the data points (blue/red dots) repositioning. This series of 4 losses represented the most consecutive losses for 2007 based upon my test. This particular test produced $594 with a 6.42%drawdown on a $10,000 account.
Clearly, there is room for optimization and improvement in the approach I took. This system seems to have merit, but it is also clear that the trend doesn't always protect from losses due to the repaint/repositioning issue.
Please understand that this info is not intended to be deeply profound, merely a presentation of one set of test results.
saintmo===========================================
as was pointed out a wee bit back, the repaint should be watched, using supersignals and silverlining, for more drawdown, BUT looking at your charts and my profits the past two days, I must wonder (nah, i already know the answer) if ANY dot "falsed" --- ie: not referring to a continued drop or rise in the currency after its "dot" went off, DID THE TREND NOT "COMPLETE" in the direction the dot was telling us ?
something tells me the "dot" indicator is always right, but not always in the right place, and that the stop loss is either too small, therefore stopping out what would have been a good trade, or one could succeed well by not using stops at all (which can be seen on my demo profits for two days --- which is up to $9140 at the moment !
I guess, based on doubling a 5k account in 2 days using this method, I may stick with it for a while !
not for bragging, but simply because i used NO stops, relying instead on the trend change and the s+r placement !
NOW, I have to figure how i profit on the "throwaway" hedge if it tests that badly ! Perhaps my broker, sweet person that he/she may be, simply "cares" for me a lot, and wishes me success ! (LOL)
enjoy and trade well and thank you for the effort
mp
mp6140 GBPUSD Daily Hedge EA
Hi folks,
I've followed this thread all the way through and have lots of great stuff to try out. Thanks to all contributors. I'm a rookie (don't like the term newbie...a rookie can turn into a professional. What does a newbie turn into?:) so I'm on a huge learning curve.
But a question/point for mp6140. I know you've said you're not into back testing, but I tried it with your EA and I kept getting OrderSend Error 130.
From the MQL4 site....
"In the case of erroneous or unnormalized stop levels, the error 130 (ERR_INVALID_STOPS) will be generated."
But there are no Stops in the EA and the Buy order works fine. Can you shed any light on this?
Thanks Much
Hi folks,
I've followed this thread all the way through and have lots of great stuff to try out. Thanks to all contributors. I'm a rookie (don't like the term newbie...a rookie can turn into a professional. What does a newbie turn into?:) so I'm on a huge learning curve.
But a question/point for mp6140. I know you've said you're not into back testing, but I tried it with your EA and I kept getting OrderSend Error 130.
From the MQL4 site....
"In the case of erroneous or unnormalized stop levels, the error 130 (ERR_INVALID_STOPS) will be generated."
But there are no Stops in the EA and the Buy order works fine. Can you shed any light on this?
Thanks Much=============================================
sorrry, but havent a clue --- didnt even know there was an EA !
anyone help here ??
mp
Attached is a screenshot for a backtest I did of the "join the dots" system. Eur/Usd, 4 hr, 2007, 30 pip stop loss, .3 lots, TP at various points for test.
The circled areas identify failed trades (stop outs) due to the data points (blue/red dots) repositioning. This series of 4 losses represented the most consecutive losses for 2007 based upon my test. This particular test produced $594 with a 6.42%drawdown on a $10,000 account.
Clearly, there is room for optimization and improvement in the approach I took. This system seems to have merit, but it is also clear that the trend doesn't always protect from losses due to the repaint/repositioning issue.
Please understand that this info is not intended to be deeply profound, merely a presentation of one set of test results.
saintmoHi Saintmo
Thanks for the feedback there. I think one needs to decide if one wants to be brave or safe?
If you choose to try the brave route, all would have eventually been good results had your stops been far enough back, but at the same time had the reversal kept going you would have gotten burnt rather badly with large Stops.
Mostly, I choose the Safe route and if I think it might turn and go against me, I tend to close the trade before the losses get to large and then jump in on the next signal.
Thanks again
Wayne
Edit: Why is the graphic you posted so big, sheez, I have to scroll the screen to fit the thing in and see it all?
===========================================
something tells me the "dot" indicator is always right, but not always in the right place, and that the stop loss is either too small, therefore stopping out what would have been a good trade, or one could succeed well by not using stops at all (which can be seen on my demo profits for two days --- which is up to $9140 at the moment !
mpDamn, but it is really nice to have people trying my strategy before telling me it does not work or is flawed, thanks MP, much appreciated.
Often if the trend is looking good, I will use Trend Hist as a gauge and have no SL at all. If Trend Histo turns yellow, just be cautious, if it then changes colour, close everything out and wait for fresh signals, profits usually far outweigh any losses you may close because of the nature of the strategy.
So my friend, your logic is sound and the repainting is once again prooved not to be an issue with this strategy, well at least 99% of the time it isn't and the 1% wont bite you unless you are being greedy.
Nice to see that it is working very well on H1, thanks, but I think I'll stick to H4 for now.
Cheers
Wayne
Hi folks,
I've followed this thread all the way through and have lots of great stuff to try out. Thanks to all contributors. I'm a rookie (don't like the term newbie...a rookie can turn into a professional. What does a newbie turn into?:) so I'm on a huge learning curve.
But a question/point for mp6140. I know you've said you're not into back testing, but I tried it with your EA and I kept getting OrderSend Error 130.
From the MQL4 site....
"In the case of erroneous or unnormalized stop levels, the error 130 (ERR_INVALID_STOPS) will be generated."
But there are no Stops in the EA and the Buy order works fine. Can you shed any light on this?
Thanks MuchHere you go, hopefully this helps, it's all I could find?
ERR_NO_RESULT 1 No error returned, but the result is unknown.
ERR_COMMON_ERROR 2 Common error.
ERR_INVALID_TRADE_PARAMETERS 3 Invalid trade parameters.
ERR_SERVER_BUSY 4 Trade server is busy.
ERR_OLD_VERSION 5 Old version of the client terminal.
ERR_NO_CONNECTION 6 No connection with trade server.
ERR_NOT_ENOUGH_RIGHTS 7 Not enough rights.
ERR_TOO_FREQUENT_REQUESTS 8 Too frequent requests.
ERR_MALFUNCTIONAL_TRADE 9 Malfunctional trade operation.
ERR_ACCOUNT_DISABLED 64 Account disabled.
ERR_INVALID_ACCOUNT 65 Invalid account.
ERR_TRADE_TIMEOUT 128 Trade timeout.
ERR_INVALID_PRICE 129 Invalid price.
ERR_INVALID_STOPS 130 Invalid stops.
ERR_INVALID_TRADE_VOLUME 131 Invalid trade volume.
ERR_MARKET_CLOSED 132 Market is closed.
ERR_TRADE_DISABLED 133 Trade is disabled.
ERR_NOT_ENOUGH_MONEY 134 Not enough money.
ERR_PRICE_CHANGED 135 Price changed.
ERR_OFF_QUOTES 136 Off quotes.
ERR_BROKER_BUSY 137 Broker is busy.
ERR_REQUOTE 138 Requote.
ERR_ORDER_LOCKED 139 Order is locked.
ERR_LONG_POSITIONS_ONLY_ALLOWED 140 Long positions only allowed.
ERR_TOO_MANY_REQUESTS 141 Too many requests.
ERR_TRADE_MODIFY_DENIED 145 Modification denied because order too close to market.
ERR_TRADE_CONTEXT_BUSY 146 Trade context is busy.
ERR_TRADE_EXPIRATION_DENIED 147 Expirations are denied by broker.
ERR_TRADE_TOO_MANY_ORDERS 148 The amount of open and pending orders has reached the limit set by the broker.
Cheers
Wayne
Question
Kamper,
As well as trading the "snap back" into the trend signified by the swing zz dots, are you ever tempted to trade the trend reversals - i.e. first the dot and then the trend confirmation? (I know you may say that this is similar to Big Bear's system, but the difference is the warning hear would be the Swing ZZ dot, not the NonLag ZigZag and pointer).
Paul.
my original reason for stopping by for tea was because I i fiddle with two concepts that are considered impossible --- the HA candlesticks and the ziggies !
somewhere back there I posted as to how a currency will move away from its new "dot", in the correct direction, reach the 15% fib and REVERSE back to the "dot", forming a dbl btm (or top) or moving down a few more pips. At that point, it goes on to complete its "dot" directed journey bringing fame, fortune, the trophy wife (or boy toy), the 1.5 mil house and the aston-martin !
Presently, GU at least, is reversing at the 23 or 36, moving back down to its orignal "dot" (which is GREAT as I get TWO chances at the same support level).
THIS is what is bringing confusion, as the currency WILL continue its originally indicated trip and return profit --- given that YOU TAKE THE TIME AND ALLOW THE TRADE TO FINISH, you will find whatever timeframe youre dealing with WILL COMPLETE --- AS LONG AS YOU DONT STOP OUT OR EXIT WITH A LOSS !
the ONLY problem Im seeing with this is HOLDING TOO TIGHT A STOP LOSS
(so you get stopped out on the repaint), or my method of not using a stop at all !
Kamper,
As well as trading the "snap back" into the trend signified by the swing zz dots, are you ever tempted to trade the trend reversals - i.e. first the dot and then the trend confirmation? (I know you may say that this is similar to Big Bear's system, but the difference is the warning hear would be the Swing ZZ dot, not the NonLag ZigZag and pointer).
Paul.Hi Paul, no sorry, I haven't.
The only variation that I do trade regularly to the strategy as outlined in the first post is if Trend Histo goes yellow, then goes back to the same colour it was before turning yellow, if the trend still looks good, I'll take another few lots in the same direction as the previous trade whether there is a dot or not.
Cheers
Wayne
my original reason for stopping by for tea was because I i fiddle with two concepts that are considered impossible --- the HA candlesticks and the ziggies !
somewhere back there I posted as to how a currency will move away from its new "dot", in the correct direction, reach the 15% fib and REVERSE back to the "dot", forming a dbl btm (or top) or moving down a few more pips. At that point, it goes on to complete its "dot" directed journey bringing fame, fortune, the trophy wife (or boy toy), the 1.5 mil house and the aston-martin !
Presently, GU at least, is reversing at the 23 or 36, moving back down to its orignal "dot" (which is GREAT as I get TWO chances at the same support level).
THIS is what is bringing confusion, as the currency WILL continue its originally indicated trip and return profit --- given that YOU TAKE THE TIME AND ALLOW THE TRADE TO FINISH, you will find whatever timeframe youre dealing with WILL COMPLETE --- AS LONG AS YOU DONT STOP OUT OR EXIT WITH A LOSS !
the ONLY problem Im seeing with this is HOLDING TOO TIGHT A STOP LOSS
(so you get stopped out on the repaint), or my method of not using a stop at all !At this stage on the H4 time frame somewhere between 55 and 144 seem to be good numbers for an original SL for those people that have to have one.
If I cannot sit at the PC, I am setting an SL of 89 at the moment on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Cheers
Wayne