Join the Dots. - page 14

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Averaging down

MP6140 - I am interested in your methodology for averaging down - this seems to make absolute sense when the dots reset themselves. Thre specific questions if I may:

1) when you average down (or scale in), do you use a martingale progression or just add the same number of positions each time

2) I know you don't use a stop, but do you have a mental stop?

3) how do you determine trade size (% of account maybe?) when averaging?

Thanks

 

Modified Swing_w_alert and Megatrend

I have modified the attached so that you only get an alerts for a RED dot when megatrend is BLUE and vice_versa.

(Megatrend writes a trend value in a global variable and the Swing reads this value)

I hope that those using smaller timeframes will find it useful as the filtering cuts down the number or irrelevant alerts.

 

mp6140 EA discussion

musketeer:
Thank you

it seems no bugs-nugs now

for last 3 days it was with 100% profitable trades...

It's good to hear the EA is working. But I still have my reservations on using it. Call me a skeptic, but without a stop loss, we are putting our account in extremely risk.

I know that mp4160 said that eventually the market will bounce back, but I've checked the charts during Christmas time last year - the market moved to the point that one side of the hedge will not recover. If this happens, it will wipe out the account.

I think this strategy works if you withdraw your profits regularly. It is not meant for account growth.

 
mp6140:
======================================================

ok, heres what happened

a zigzag line moves in a straight line (naturally) showing trend, but nowhere is it written that the currency itself wont take off and wander around for a while before RETURNING to that trend. While trading the H1, one has to consider what the one minute, 5 minute, 15 minute and 30 minute are doing EVEN THOUGH the H1 still maintains its trend. Trading the H-1 and even more so the H4 is going to give you a lot of drawdowns on volitile days, and boy did we have one today.

Because of the strong nature of trading with GU past few days (and my reason for just leaving it alone today as i set some shorts last nite which came home to roost today) and the overpowering momentum, GU was caught in a tremendous down move that was both news based and to be expected (after what it did yesterday) AND REVERSED TO BECOME A LONG AFTER THE SHORTS WERE DONE WITH IT. This currency follows the DOW rather nicely and did just that today as profits were taken and the shorts stepped in after yesterdays moves for their turn at the feeding frenzy ! If you watch reversals, you understand that at certain times of the day, they will hapen but not before ---

the ziggies were absolutely correct, BUT EARLY given what was happening and because of the nature of how they work, as the trend has long ago changed to the upside.

The difference between profit and loss on this trade was in BELIEVING in the indicators and knowing what I state so often --- what goes down must come up and its best not to have that stop loss --- knowing WHEN the market will make a major reversal is also VERY important, and its usually at 12 noon and 12 midnite, EST, with some minor selloffs every hour and a half during the day !

I know that doesnt help now, but hope you at least recovered with the LONG side reversal that should continue till asian market, with some downside possible at the 5pm rollover (which "shouldnt" change the trend, just selloff a bit !)

Essentially, the signs were good on your chart, but the ABSOLUTE push by the shorts kept pushing it down.

with experience in forex as well as this system, one would have known to "average down" at each signal and when the reversal came into being, you would have been golden although its also VERY easy to understand your concerns at seeing your money on the down elevator when you put it on the UP one !

what you saw was an absolute test of ANY system and any trader, and im sorry you were not more familiar with the "realities" of trading this type of market determination, although you certainly should have made it all back by now !

mp

WOW, What a great analogy, thanks you MP.

 
lepiricus:
Thanks for you posts MP6140, I am learning from them.

I have only been demo trading this for about 36 hours on 5 pairs all on the 15m time frame and I have close about +650 pips so far trading the US and Asian sessions only.

When I get caught in a repaint I have been averaging down and letting them ride, no stops and I will set a TP if I know I will be away from my terminal for a while.

I'll post the chart I am trading from and statement since yesterday trading 1 std lot on a 10k account, its up 60% in 36 hours. I know this is crappy money management, but I started the account thinking it was a mini, but after the first order I saw it was standard I just stayed with it.

Hey Lep

If it's not to much trouble, I'd love to know exactly what your entry rules are for M15, based on the chart you posted and which indicators you have changed or are using differently?

Thanks

Wayne

 
Toccata:
I have modified the attached so that you only get an alerts for a RED dot when megatrend is BLUE and vice_versa.

(Megatrend writes a trend value in a global variable and the Swing reads this value)

I hope that those using smaller timeframes will find it useful as the filtering cuts down the number or irrelevant alerts.

Thanks Toccata

Can I ask a question please. It seems to be Mega Trend that is so resource hungry and makes this strategy use lots of memory and generally slow everything down terribly?

Is there any way that you can make Mega Trend less resource hungry while maintaining it's current form?

Thanks

Wayne

 
azmel:
It's good to hear the EA is working. But I still have my reservations on using it. Call me a skeptic, but without a stop loss, we are putting our account in extremely risk.

I know that mp4160 said that eventually the market will bounce back, but I've checked the charts during Christmas time last year - the market moved to the point that one side of the hedge will not recover. If this happens, it will wipe out the account.

I think this strategy works if you withdraw your profits regularly. It is not meant for account growth.

==================================================

I have no deep set family attachments to this strategy, so just do a 5 pipper each way which should NEVER have a problem --- if you see it works, then increase lot size to adjust for smaller pip range !

mp

 

Azmel,Lepricus

I think that the probability of not closing with + a trade is very low if you trade between support and resistances.(buy support and sell resistance) Also having a zigzag type indicator to show you where the last top/bottom was is a very helpful thing.

If a trend establishes after the zigzag, and a suport/resistance seems to remain fixed over/blow the zigzag i think you can go in with a 99.00% probability that if the tp is small enough(between that suport resistance) it will close very soon with profit.

Now about stop loss i won't let my trades go forever if it's on the minus side. I'll look if the resistance/support at the zigzag that was broken (the one i thought will not be broken) and start a counter trade from the point of the break.

Starting a counter trade is like freezing the loss on that point and giving you another chance for fixing the problems. (or aggravating things ))

If it's going to break suports/resistances in the opsite direction i close them both. (the loss will be only the diference between them +/- some spread)

Anyway if you can combine these things with looking for the same setups on higher tf than the chance for this to happen is even smaller.

Now what Kamper strategy has is that swing_zigzag, the trend indicator and the resistance and support added later. I think that one can do the same trick with whatever zigzag,trend indicator and support resistance.

If anyone knows a better trend indicator i would be interested because the indicator used here is not so good. (in my oppinion)

And the one i use shows sometimes false trends. (MTrend is the name of the indicator)

My personal approach of this system was: Z-Z1,SR7_Fast,MTrend and went good about 1/5 increase of account in a fiew hours but i'm "affraid" to trade more than 20pips/move. )

P.S take into consideration that not breaking suport/resistance means -direction change.

-breaking support/resistances inverts them. suport will be resistance and resistance -> suport.

Thanks, Victor

 

I understand what is meant with taking the opposite trade if the dot continues to re-paint, but I am unsure what is meant by averaging down. I apologize in advance for my ignorance. Great thread guys with a lot of new ideas for me!

Chris

 

Has anyone added Fibs to this and if so what was the outcome or did they not help at all?

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