ElectricSavant's™ Challenge - page 25
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ES,
Take a look at this Omega99 EA... It's my own little creation, i've backtested it like mad and get some very positive results. I've begun live testing and the demo account login info is at the bottom of this post.
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The results below show for the optimized year 01Jan08 to 27Feb08. The results show a 48% return with a 5.86% drawdown.
Bars in test 33258
Ticks modelled 2066419
Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 4834.33
Gross profit 10606.93
Gross loss -5772.60
Profit factor 1.84
Expected payoff 3.49
Absolute drawdown 476.97
Maximal drawdown 856.80 (5.86%)
Relative drawdown 5.86% (856.80)
Total trades 1384
Short positions (won %) 570 (58.95%)
Long positions (won %) 814 (58.23%)
Profit trades (% of total) 810 (58.53%)
Loss trades (% of total) 574 (41.47%)
Largest
profit trade 239.41
loss trade -71.66
Average
profit trade 13.09
loss trade -10.06
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 20 (95.61)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 5 (-219.06)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 245.84 (12)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -219.06 (5)
Average
consecutive wins 3
consecutive losses 2
The below is the non-optimized 5 year backtest on the USDJPY. From 01Jan2003 to 02Feb2008. We can see that even a raw non-optimized backtest returns a great deal with still a max drawdown of 33.26%. While Returning nearly 630% over 5 years!
Bars in test 132940
Ticks modelled 10326073
Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 59
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 62963.43
Gross profit 138370.84
Gross loss -75407.41
Profit factor 1.83
Expected payoff 10.37
Absolute drawdown 366.51
Maximal drawdown 10116.29 (33.26%)
Relative drawdown 44.13% (8336.36)
Total trades 6074
Short positions (won %) 2755 (62.14%)
Long positions (won %) 3319 (59.84%)
Profit trades (% of total) 3698 (60.88%)
Loss trades (% of total) 2376 (39.12%)
Largest
profit trade 1574.71
loss trade -489.61
Average
profit trade 37.42
loss trade -31.74
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 23 (108.40)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 5 (-1533.41)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 1720.92 (12)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -1533.41 (5)
Average
consecutive wins 4
consecutive losses 2
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I've included the login info for the account using the Optimized settings. I plan on optimizing the EA quarterly.
I wanted the demo to be as realistic as possible so it's with 2k and mini as well.
Interbank FX -- Demo Mini
Login : 1900901
Investor : xf6cemq (read only password)
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Give it a try, it was turned on last night. I will let it go for the next month without any interruption along the testing phase.
Everyone else can follow along as well, I don't mind.
-dgv
doc,
this thread is for official Challenges...or questions...please take it seriously
I am sorry if you misunderstood....this is not a thread for you to present your work...eventhough your results are most excellent.
I take this Challenge very serious, so please try to understand that this is a serious thread.
You are most welcome to enter and you can read the details of the rules at the Bright Ideas forum.
I understand that you do not want this live yet...but please consider the Challenge when you are ready
ES
Haven't I already? I've posted the login info for the demo account so you can follow it along as well as the backtest data.
I don't wish it to be tested on a live account yet as the EA is still in testing phase and I don't have enough hubris to say that it will work well on a live account without forward testing it.
In so saying this EA is the ea that I have the most confidence in -- in a long long time. If it works out over the next month to deliver a good percentage return with a low drawdown, I will allow it to trade on a live account, I've been burned far too many times by being impatient and throwing any EA on a live account.I'd be especially wary of UJ backtest results - at this stage I'm convinced that Metaquotes has added 'exploitable artifacts' to all the data it has available, designed to keep us curve-fitting our EA's to this worthless toss and away from real-market data (and also the reason they removed the Recalculate option imo). And EURCHF, GBPCHF and CHFJPY are just as bad... Below is my effort at making martingaling survivable (0%-ish chance of it blowing anything above $10,000) HOWEVER, it only works with USDJPY, hence my reservations about the quality of the data...
any backtest results are useless, they are just a basis on whether its worth forward testing..
any backtest results are useless, they are just a basis on whether its worth forward testing..
I presume you are only familiar with the Metatrader backtester - there are many other reliable backtest platforms out there - Tradestation, Wealthlab and Amibroker to name three I have some experience with, and they have excellent reputations, so to say backtest results are useless is plain uninformed. And Metatrader itself appears reliable - what is not, is the price-data Metaquotes supplies imo. Sure, demo account forward-tests will be more reliable in general, but are still practically useless in many instances - scalping strategies being one...
doc,
I read my post replying to you and it was a little harsh in which I regret as I consider you a friend. It's just that I do not want this thread to turn into a place where work is posted only...I need contestants!
Let me explain my thoughts. The demo feed from IBFX is supposadly identical to the live feed...This is just not true...If you put any EA up side by side with a live feed you can verify what I mean.
So I purpose that if your forward tests prove to beat the Challenge™ and you are still talking to me
you will be welcomed with open arms as I think it would be awesome if you could officially enter and beat the Challenge™ !
ES
I presume you are only familiar with the Metatrader backtester - there are many other reliable backtest platforms out there - Tradestation, Wealthlab and Amibroker to name three I have some experience with, and they have excellent reputations, so to say backtest results are useless is plain uninformed. And Metatrader itself appears reliable - what is not, is the price-data Metaquotes supplies imo. Sure, demo account forward-tests will be more reliable in general, but are still practically useless in many instances - scalping strategies being one...
Well, past data can never replicate future data.... Well it could, but its unlikely.. as things change..
Forward testing on demo has been known to show different results to live.. As the data is different from brokers..
There have been many an EA profitable on demo, which has gone with the wind, as it lost peoples accounts live... And some people i know are experiencing this now. (Mostly with the competition EA's).
Wasting 100$ can be worth it in the long run.
.....Wasting 100$ can be worth it in the long run.
Agreed, there's no substitute for the real thing. However, sticking a martingaler on a $100 real-account would be simply throwing money away imo. So, we're back to the Backtester & demo forward-testing...