Latest forex analysis - page 38
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Purchasing managers' index of manufacturing activity shows growth for the third straight month, indicating a 'sustainable recovery.'
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key index of U.S. manufacturing activity jumped in October, reaching its highest level in three and a-half years, a purchasing managers' group said Monday.
The Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index rose to a reading of 55.7 in October from 52.6 the month before. It was the highest reading since April 2006 when the index registered 56.
Economists were expecting a reading of 53, according to consensus estimates gathered by Briefing.com.
"This is another clear sign the recession is over, and the recovery has begun," said Adam York, an economist at Wells Fargo.
The monthly report is a national survey of ISM members, who are purchasing managers in the manufacturing field. Index readings above 50 indicate growth, while levels below 50 signal contraction. Readings below 41.2 are associated with a recession in the broader economy.
The index first showed growth in August after 18 months of contraction. It dipped slightly in September from the previous month, but has held above the level indicating growth for three months in a row.
"The jump in the index was driven by production and employment," said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM's manufacturing business survey committee. "Overall, it appears that inventories are balanced and that manufacturing is in a sustainable recovery mode."
The employment index rose to 53.1, indicating growth for the first time in 14 months. The ISM says an employment index above 49.7 is "generally consistent" with an increase in government jobs data in the manufacturing sector.
Ore said the jump in manufacturing employment was due to "some callbacks and opportunities for temporary workers."
On Friday, the Labor Department is expected to report that employers cut payrolls by 175,000 jobs in October after a loss of 263,000 jobs in September, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.9% from 9.8%.
Production in the manufacturing sector rose for the fifth month in a row, led by strength in plastics and rubber products, furniture and apparel.
The gain in production came as the index of new orders for manufactured goods rose for the fourth consecutive month.
The ISM tracks new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories, customers' inventories, the backlog of orders, prices, new export orders, imports and buying policies.
Of the 18 manufacturing sectors reporting, 13 posted growth -- including categories such as petroleum and coal products, apparel and transportation equipment. Sectors reporting contractions included metals, mineral products and wood products.
A government report showed last week that theU.S. economy grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter, ending a string of declines over four quarters that resulted in the most severe slide since the Great Depression.
Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/11/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 3, 2009
---
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate is due out tomorrow (Nov 4).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast no change, with the interest rate remaining at 0.25%.
---
Euro Dollar
In spite of the importance of the 1.4682 support that has stopped price twice exactly at the same price, we will not wait until it is broken to turn our outlook for the Euro to negative. We will set out most important support at Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term 1.4744, because it is the last important support defending 1.4682, and if 1.4744 is broken, the odds of breaking 1.4682 on a third attempt will be big. The most important support for the short-term is 1.4809, provided by the falling trendline from 1.4926, and breaking it would give the Euro some strength that could be enough to test Fibonacci 50% at 1.4872. We will await a break of either of those levels before deciding on today's direction. If we break support at 1.4744, that will mean a continuation of falling on the short-term and targeting the important bottom 1.4649 and may be 1.4610 after that. But if we break the resistance 1.4809, today's direction would be up, and the suggested targets would be 1.4872 first, and may be 1.4916.
Support:
• 1.4744: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
• 1.4610: Sep 21st low.
Resistance:
• 1.4980: the falling trendline from 1.4926.
• 1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
• 1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
---
USD/JPY
Down to the pip, the Dollar-Yen stopped at Fibonacci resistance specified in yesterday's report 90.68 (yesterday's high is EXACTLY 90.68), and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. That’s why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.16, after the price literally "sat" on it for the past few hours. If we break this support the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.61 first, then 89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for yesterday, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci resistance that we talked about (90.68),makes it the most important resistance, and only if it is broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this surprise happens, we will be heading to a test the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline drawn on the chart), which is currently at 90.95, and that would be an important test if it happens.
Support:
• 90.16: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
• 89.07: previous intraday support.
Resistance:
• 90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
• 90.95: the upper limit of the short-term downtrend and the trendline descending from last week tops.
• 91.60: Oct 29th high.
---
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Oil falls near $79 as Ida weakens
Futures decline as the first real weather threat to oil production is downgraded to a tropical storm and dollar rises from 15-month low.
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Oil prices fell Tuesday as the dollar firmed and energy companies began restoring offshore operations disrupted by Tropical Storm Ida.
U.S crude for December delivery traded down 38 cents and settled at $79.05 a barrel.
"Crude pulled back from its highs because the dollar bounced a bit and there was no sizzle after the Ida fizzle," said Andrew Lebow, broker at MF Global in New York.
Oil and natural gas companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico began returning workers evacuated ahead of Tropical Storm Ida and restoring shuttered output and ports.
Ida, which churned up to a category 2 hurricane earlier this week, weakened into a topical depression on Tuesday after coming ashore in Alabama.
About 43% of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico and 28% of the region's natural gas output remained shut on Tuesday, according to government figures.
Disruptions in the Gulf, home to about 25% of U.S. domestic oil production and 14% of gas output, helped push crude prices up more than 2% on Monday.
U.S. oil markets have dropped from record highs near $150 a barrel to below $33 a barrel in December as the global recession hit energy demand.
Traders have looked to wider macro-economic data and equities markets for signs of an economic recovery that could bolster crude demand. Pressure on crude prices also came as the dollar firmed off a 15-month low, as investors pulled money out of equities and crude and into safer havens.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised its forecast for 2010 crude oil demand up by 160,000 barrels per day, but cut its estimate demand slightly for the United States, the world's largest energy consumer.
A MasterCard SpendingPulse report showed U.S. gasoline demand rose 2.2% last week versus year-ago levels, although it was down 2.3% compared with the previous week.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised its forecast for 2010 crude oil demand up by 160,000 barrels per day, but cut its estimate demand slightly for the United States, the world's largest energy consumer
In its annual World Energy Outlook published on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency forecast a 1.5% rise in primary energy demand globally every year until 2030, and called for $26 trillion in investment to meet the expected demand.
Markets were also awaiting weekly U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, due out at later Tuesday. The weekly EIA inventory report will be released a day late on Thursday due to the U.S. Veteran's Day holiday.
Analysts forecast the data will show a slight rise in U.S. crude oil inventories last week due to higher imports, according to analysts polled by Reuters.