Directional Movement System Resurrected - page 2
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Mpower: When following your signals on a 4hr chart, would you enter on the cross before the bar is finished or would you wait for the bar to finish and enter only if the cross is still there?
Hi MPOWER,
I have two question.
1. your tempate - what is MA - HMA, xpMA, period?
2. filter if range... use any?
See picture... if range and if trend.
Replies
To Hiberth,
Thank you very much for modifying the indicator, it works perfectly fine. No problems whatsoever, follows the rules to the letter. It has also allowed me to see the false entries as well. Thanks again. So far, going through the charts, this will work best with gbp/usd, gbp/jpy has some very nice trends worth over 200 pips(there was a move of 1500 pips as well,) but if it goes into ranging mode, than it is trouble, usd/chf, eur/usd, eur/jpy work fairly well...All in all, I am not satisfyied with the hit rate--it is between 55-70%. And even though potential gains are usually greater than losses, I would not trade this live. Simply because I cannot stand big drawdowns during bad periods, and I don't like to hold positions for days. I just want to get in, get my profit, and get out, hoping the same will happen the next day. With this you may not get a signal for a week...
To Rick,
You enter during the formation of a bar, if you have gotten a signal the trend inevitably will return, it may not break the last high, but it will test it, so you enter as soon as you can after the signal.
To Frantacech(Who am I today? Mr. Jeckyl or Mr. Hyde:-):
I explained earlier that the indicator that you see on my chart is CPS from Centralpips.com. It is just a visual aid, I don't use it for decision making. So the answer to the question if I have a template is no. I don't have a filter for when the market is ranging either. The set-ups in themselves reflect a trending market. We rely on ADX on a 4hr chart, so we all know that indicators are not perfect...
I will play with it to see if I can come up with effective targets and stop loss levels. The idea definitely has some value, I will see if I can make it work in the real world. As I said earlier, I am open to suggestions, criticism, or anything people want to say to me:-)
Cheers!!!
Update
we had a few set-ups today. gbp/jpy, eur/jpy, usd/jpy, aud/usd. I was in profit on demo over 170 pips, then price came back against me, but the trend will return, it always does...Expect dollar streanght tomorrow... Let's see.
I will post results.
we had a few set-ups today. gbp/jpy, eur/jpy, usd/jpy, aud/usd. I was in profit on demo over 170 pips, then price came back against me, but the trend will return, it always does...Expect dollar streanght tomorrow... Let's see. I will post results.
Try partial profit.
open 3L, 1L close after x (for ex. 50pips and SL to BE+1), 2nd after 100pips and ....
+170pips and then 0 - its worse.
Archilles heal
Being aware of the nature of ADX and the cross causing signal, this indicator displaying arrows should not be prone to repainting although it does work a little slow in some cases.
Being a trend only indy, it seems to be having difficulty switching between BUY/SELL/BUY/SELL even in violently opposing moves and looking at it historically on H4 charts, you would have to possess big balls to stomach 200 pip moves (minimum) before determining you might not get another signal in the opposite direction. That's a whole heap of profit 'bleed'.
Don't get me wrong, there are some lovely moves, but there are also plenty that will clean you right out ickity split.
It's half way there but where oscillators have come undone, this seems to have only added to the shortfall.
Archer
I find your observation interesting. I have been trading the forex for 2 yrs as well. Recently I have been doing some studies on the ADX, particularly the +di/-di at the levels you mentioned. It is surprising to see that someone else has reached the same understanding as I have simultaneously! I think the ADX and the CCI (particularly woodie's and FX Snippers Ergodic CCI) are master indicators. You can look at the CCI in a glance and know where you are in the trade. Now I won't take a trade unless these two, along w/ the Schaff Trend Cycle, are on my side. Yes, integrated w/fibonnacci and S/R makes for high probability trades. I don't know anything about programming yet, but I intend to develope an EA (have someone write it for me) that will give me the entries based on my studies.
Thanks HerbertH
Update
I was watching ADX 4H charts closely, and it captured some beautiful moves this week across different pairs. I am working on adapting this for intraday trading targeting 20-60 pips per pair. For this purpose, I made an MTF ADX, so that you can see for ex. what is going on with adx 4H on a 5 min timeframe. The indicator is attached. It was an MTF indy for RSI that I modified. When you attach it to a time frame different than 4H, you have to type 240 for period.
I have an idea for setting targets and s/l for intraday trading using just fibo extensions and zig-zag(just to help in drawing the fibs) It is very simple, but I need to do some backtests to see how well it works. I will let you know if I come out with positive results. My preliminary observations are promising. I will also show you a couple of other important adx set-ups.
I'll be back:-)
Asta la vista;-)
Update
I was not able to figure out how to set effective targets and stop losses combining adx with other technical tools...with adx as the main trend finder. I made some trades on cable today looking at adx on various timeframes and even though I did not lose a trade, I did not get anywhere...well back to the drawing board. My little consolation is attached, at least I know how to get out dry of the water...