Big Profit Without Using Any Indicator - page 14
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Protecting yourself and increasing the odd's
maybe i've worded myself poorly...
with no doubt the martingale system is one of the oldest (if not the oldest) systems around. it's not merely a "double up your previous loss" system but in fact it's a "all your losses plus 1" system. so in an actual situation, if you have lost this 1 unit on your first "bet", your next "bet" is 2 to cover for your previous loss of 1 unit. if you win, you'll have gained 1 unit. if lost, you'll need 4 units on the next one and so on... Understandably, this is a VERY risky system. it will take a huge amount of capital just to secure your 1 unit of profit.
thus, the question is how many times has there been a trend straight up or down on the 4 majors without at least a 20 pip retracement? i don't have enough 1M tf data with me to back this up. so if you guys have it, you could check it out. if it does happen so often, then what shall we need to do to improve on this system?I would hope that most people treat trading as a finer science than gambling otherwise they will have better odds and happier times at the casino.
You dont need 1 minute data to wait very long to see whats happening right now on Cable. Cable is currently falling 75 pips without even looking back in the last 40 minutes and this is non news generated/normal day event.
Martingale in my opinion IS very close to gambling (also blessing), it plays the odds that if you dont roll the dice lucky 7 first time (Get your TP) just keep adding (rolling again) and sure enough the dice will roll 7 (market retrace) after a few attempts. I almost guarantee you that the dice will require less throws to generate 7 than the levels (what was it?!! up to 15!!?) attempts doubling your positions.
So, improve on the system you ask? Fair question. If it breaks the MM rules though (As blatantly as expecting a good living from a Casino) you may as well ask can I improve those odds for you.
In trading all you can do is build the best system possible (and believe me it can be quite bad in accuracy strike rate) but the key is MM. If your system were only correct even as low as 50% of the time, this would not matter as long as you keep you stops to a minimum size and make the returns at least 2-3 times the value (even 1.5). This as you know is termed RRR Risk Reward Ratio.
Martingale/Blessing violates RRR by exponentially growing your potential loss for a very small gain and this is the exact opposite of what MM should look like. In this situation 1 or 2 bad losses and your entire account is wiped.
Martingale caters to those who cannot accept a losing position and I'm afraid Trading is about losing as much (if not more) than winning, its just that a good Trader can survive because his wins are greater than his losses.
Hope this helps a little.
Well, this EA is not planned to use even on demo account, it doesn't do basic checks, it doesn't do refresh rate when it's neccessary. But it does follow the original system idea. Use it for testing on history only.
thus, the question is how many times has there been a trend straight up or down on the 4 majors without at least a 20 pip retracement? i don't have enough 1M tf data with me to back this up. so if you guys have it, you could check it out. if it does happen so often, then what shall we need to do to improve on this system?
Get the latest version of MT. Go to history center in your MT, select pair and press button Download - you'll get 1m history for several years. Repeat it for other pairs.
Use my EA v2 and you'll see there are enough big movements (more than 200 pips) without 20 pips retracement.
Thank every one
i don't know what i'm going to say again.. i just want to share my idea. If there are some mistake.. thank you for warn me and other people.
one thing to remember to use this system.. don't be greedy.. when you got a lot of profit, it doesn't guarantee you will survive in this business.
Honestly, i use this system with very little lot.. it's only 0,01 lot in level 1. And i am still using another system to make more gain. and it's true i've been using this system for a year, because i use very little lot it was safe..
So every one who trying this method i suggest u don't be greedy. 0,01 lot is enough for u. or u have a huge account you can trade higher.
Trade with your heart not with your ambition
Hello folks, i didn't have much time to read previous today's posts but i promisse i will do later today.
I have found a glitch in the way i am testing the system.
This early morning (from 0gmt) i started at 1.9626 my testing of the system.
The gbp went 5 levels down and then 1 level up.
I simulate exiting all positions at that point but i end with a little loss instead of a profit.
Could be spreads? yeah, but is weired because i have take care of those in the calculations.
If anyone can look at it and give me their opinion will be great.
Rifo, do you see anything wrong here?
Dan.
I would hope that most people treat trading as a finer science than gambling otherwise they will have better odds and happier times at the casino.
You dont need 1 minute data to wait very long to see whats happening right now on Cable. Cable is currently falling 75 pips without even looking back in the last 40 minutes and this is non news generated/normal day event.
Martingale in my opinion IS very close to gambling (also blessing), it plays the odds that if you dont roll the dice lucky 7 first time (Get your TP) just keep adding (rolling again) and sure enough the dice will roll 7 (market retrace) after a few attempts. I almost guarantee you that the dice will require less throws to generate 7 than the levels (what was it?!! up to 15!!?) attempts doubling your positions.
So, improve on the system you ask? Fair question. If it breaks the MM rules though (As blatantly as expecting a good living from a Casino) you may as well ask can I improve those odds for you.
In trading all you can do is build the best system possible (and believe me it can be quite bad in accuracy strike rate) but the key is MM. If your system were only correct even as low as 50% of the time, this would not matter as long as you keep you stops to a minimum size and make the returns at least 2-3 times the value (even 1.5). This as you know is termed RRR Risk Reward Ratio.
Martingale/Blessing violates RRR by exponentially growing your potential loss for a very small gain and this is the exact opposite of what MM should look like. In this situation 1 or 2 bad losses and your entire account is wiped.
Martingale caters to those who cannot accept a losing position and I'm afraid Trading is about losing as much (if not more) than winning, its just that a good Trader can survive because his wins are greater than his losses.
Hope this helps a little.as it was stated before...people who feels taht this system is not for them...just pass on....
I have checked manually some of the worst situation in 2006 for gbp...and I could not find any sitaution where it was necessary to go more than 11th/12th level....so if you adjust your first postion so that you can be alive up to the 15th level, you sould be safe...whatever happens....
As for news release, the safest way is to avoid trading this strategy at the time big news is to be released...or at least to increase the step value from 20 to 25/30...
i don't know what i'm going to say again.. i just want to share my idea. If there are some mistake.. thank you for warn me and other people.
Thank you for sharing your ideas and for your work and time you spent for manual testing them. There is no mistake. That's the normal way to find a good system.
As it was said Martingale is high risk for small profit. Yes, it will work safe with micro lot but it will make micro profit, so there is no point. You can use Magtingale to improve good system which makes 2-3 losses in row but 10 losses - it's too many...
Another problem - small target and too many orders. Even this Blessing System - try to use any my EA with stop loss 50. You'll see great improvement - smaller number of doubling, bigger profit - as there will be less order, so less losses on spread.
Thanks again and if you get any other interesting ideas - we'll test them together.
Circumventing the spread
Ok, seems its a 100% spread problem.
As we are making 17 pips instead of 20, i see that after level 4 the spread starts eating the profits.
Possible workarrounds:
(1) use a 2 pip spread pair as EUR/USD or USD/JPY. (EUR is better in my opinion because is less volatile).
(2) Make an additional lot incresse after L4, for example, instead of buying 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8, 1.6, 3.2 we will have to buy: 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8, 1.7, 3.4, and so on.
Opinions?
Dan.-To circumvent the 'profit bleed' caused by spread this can be overcome by coding the EA to place pending limit and stop orders at the same level. These will be activated at the same time as opposed to if you program for @market cognition.
This way you don't need to mess with lot size to compensate
FxNorth
EA still have a problem
Timbobo :
Thanks for made this great EA... but i still get a problem here.. sometimes when the TP were hit, EA doesn't make a new order. How could it be ??
But 70% we have on the way EA in this system..
could you fix it..?
Thanks you
King regard
Rifo