Some food for thought: It all comes to this!
1 yes & no 2 can and cant be done 3 not much cowboy around no more . 4 there is strategy thats 9+ and 1- and if you wait some where then bail out the-whit + . there is ea make 9 figure less then 1 year right ? a tic is a tic why worry of 1 bar ? Nice to see these khinda thread , aint see for long time {...xapt ...rips and go threads... } so what are the MM ? martingail or double doogg ?
1 yes & no 2 can and cant be done 3 not much cowboy around no more . 4 there is strategy thats 9+ and 1- and if you wait some where then bail out the-whit + . there is ea make 9 figure less then 1 year right ? a tic is a tic why worry of 1 bar ? Nice to see these khinda thread , aint see for long time {...xapt ...rips and go threads... } so what are the MM ? martingail or double doogg ?
Thanks for the input. I did develop an EA that produced 120 million out of 1,000 bucks, and trust me (see attachment). It is such a delight to count such numbers all the time. But what counts is what is applicable in real trading and what is not. Obviously, 11,000 orders per year with orders closing with 1 or so pips profit are not possible. The MM scheme I use is (stoploss=1/2 target) and I double the lots on every win. That simple.
It doesn't stop here though. It's a learning process and I'm still in square one (or two after the new year).
Here's a post somewhat related to my pursuit for answers:
Please desribe the logic behnd the supersclaper such I can attempt to trase it
manually.
Another question, is it EA available for use?
Please desribe the logic behnd the supersclaper such I can attempt to trase it
manually.
Another question, is it EA available for use?Yes, it's called SuperScalper and it's on Aaragorn's workbench, along with many others:
Investor you , there you have it ....so...? +42 - 1 ... why dont you make it + 20 - 2 ? or +10 -4 with hight propability it still make it ...then see where the -4 is comming an eliminate the possiblelity . Trading w/t ea is a lil bit difference unless the system logic is simple or complicatedly saint, it dont know where is the turning point of the cycle ...[cycle if you like to said so...] cycle it self has stages . cycle is part of noise . dono what the logic of the ea it base only by noise may be... what about the cycle ...
Investor you , there you have it ....so...? +42 - 1 ... why dont you make it + 20 - 2 ? or +10 -4 with hight propability it still make it ...then see where the -4 is comming an eliminate the possiblelity . Trading w/t ea is a lil bit difference unless the system logic is simple or complicatedly saint, it dont know where is the turning point of the cycle ...[cycle if you like to said so...] cycle it self has stages . cycle is part of noise . dono what the logic of the ea it base only by noise may be... what about the cycle ...
The EA can do that too based on the risk option. But honesty, I didn't get what you meant by noise and cycle,,, I believe that there is no such thing as noise in the market, everything, including whipsaws have a reason.
the cycle is when the first tic start and form a pattern till the pattern gone (trand start and till the trand end ). it is not the cycle of weekly ,mo,year. it could be done too ...but it is way too big . the daily cycle is just nice . when talk a bout cycle dont worry of whip cos the whip is ready part of cycle ... reason sure ... as eazy as it can be said is all osc has its limit +80 -20 cross 0 . but itis not relevant any more ... whip saw is mostly bad conotasion for reg ... 1 when big money in and out too fast 2 the market wanna clean the board 3 there is small retracement at small time frame ...there is more time the trade is benefit from the whip ... cycle is not like trand line .... it consisted of up trand and down trand and side way .If you have oscilloscope ...sinewave can see the pattern .The cycle is in HERZ
ps nice sine wave pettern like to sent you the piccy of where the market going to today { full wave },but dono where to sent the piccy...
the cycle is when the first tic start and form a pattern till the pattern gone (trand start and till the trand end ). it is not the cycle of weekly ,mo,year. it could be done too ...but it is way too big . the daily cycle is just nice . when talk a bout cycle dont worry of whip cos the whip is ready part of cycle ... reason sure ... as eazy as it can be said is all osc has its limit +80 -20 cross 0 . but itis not relevant any more ... whip saw is mostly bad conotasion for reg ... 1 when big money in and out too fast 2 the market wanna clean the board 3 there is small retracement at small time frame ...there is more time the trade is benefit from the whip ... cycle is not like trand line .... it consisted of up trand and down trand and side way .If you have oscilloscope ...sinewave can see the pattern .The cycle is in HERZ ps nice sine wave pettern like to sent you the piccy of where the market going to today { full wave },but dono where to sent the piccy...
Thanks for the valuable tips. I am impressed by your analysis. U can certainly post the sine-wave cycle mage here in this thread!
Sure .... it is in every trading station .... it is a classic indi ....! The original sine wave is analizing AUDIO and electronic parts so it is non related ....use 1/4 wave of yearly everage make it hi and lo there you have it ! ...Ok ..lets hear from other member of the forum a bout food of thought
Food 4 thought
Everything happens for a reason? If the spike bar happens for a reason then an indicator will not work? It would give a false signal no?
Or is it that when the spike bar occurs it is as an accident on the freeway. We drive the freeway every day to work, and we don't always see an accident on the freeway even though we do see them reported on the news.
So if we can avoid the car wrecks on the freeway, can we avoid the spike bars in the 4x. Or do we want to avoid them might be the better question.
Spike bars are only one phenomenon we must get over or deal with in some sort of fashion.
Another thing that can be very confusing is if you look on one chart you think the trend is down when on a larger time frame the trend is up. Well we all know the story about trading against the trend. So if you are trading long on the H1 and the W1 is short you better hope it keeps going your direction. 
The above problem is complex and we could probably generate pages of discussion just on that one thing. I'm sure you've probably tried various EA's on several different time periods in hopes of unlocking some sort of key. I can say without a doubt that there is more "noise" on the smaller time periods.
However, this noise can be used to your advantage... depending on how you interpret it or the EA interprets it. You don't want too much noise, but you don't want too little either. If you are trading an EA on a higher time period it will generally mean higher periods of DD. [DrawDown] There are many different market cycles. Certain pairs can go long or short for extended periods of time.
Take for instance the USD. It will likely be short for some time to come. Why? because monetary policy. Interest Rates decide where central banks park their money. ECB will likely be long for some time to come... why? because monetary policy. If you don't understand this your trading would probably get a little better if you did.
Does this mean the USD will not have any long days? { I wouldn't count on it.} But prolonged long moves for poor dollar is rather unlikely. This could change if the Fed changes course and increases the interest rates or the ECB changes course and loosens theirs. {monetary policy}
These are just a few things. The thing we must deal with as traders is mostly psychological. Because if we take a trade we want to win. If the trade goes for a loss it's a psychological blow to our ego.
While the EA takes away a good part of the psychological hindrance it's when we sit there and watch the EA and judge it by how good or bad it's doing. It only knows to do what you've told it to do.
If you don't account for every single thing that could occur during the trading day with the EA then it will most likely destroy the acct. or destroy the trust you had in it.
Sometimes our best medicine is to stay with what we got and be happy, but it's human nature to always look on the other side of the fence... because it's always greener over there. If we could learn this lesson, it might be the most important lesson of all. 
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Hi there,
I like many of you have been thinking about how to find a trading method that would guarantee -sort of- a nominal but stable profit consistently over certain periods of time. I arrived to a number of conclusions and I wish that you could contribute your opinion:
conclusion one: There is no way -impossible- to achieve a winning percentage (in terms of money and not trade) for any trading system. In other words, there cannot be a way to guarantee profit all the time.
conclusion two: based on the above conclusion, one can do well if he/she has enough profit to comepensate the loss of the past. So in other words, if I make 100 trades, 90 of them profitable, I must guarantee that the 10 won't draw me down. Similarly, there can be a system that makes 90% losing trades, but the remaining 10% have higher profits, which makes the strategy profitable. Money management is key here.
conclusion three: There needs to be a timeframe during which we can measure the success or failure of a strategy. In other words, imagine you had a system that produces profit for a week, how can we say it is good enough? It could be that the second week would be losses and half the account, then it could be a loss, but then again, winning trades in the third would would make it a winning trade once again, and so forth. Where do we draw the line and say this is a profitable system or not? Is it one month? Three months? A year? A week?
conclusion four: I realized that the best times for winning is during trending markets with little volatility (preferebly little whipsaws), and most expert systems for example proved to be quite effective during such times. Relatively speaking, markets without strong trends are slow moving and do not produce lots of trade opportunity. That also makes sense. But then, that means that a trading strategy needs to adopt itself to work differently under different conditions.
conclusion five: Based on the above conclusion, there should be a way to know if a market is moving from a trending status to a non-trending status. How can we define when a market is trending or not? Is it the difference of highs and lows for a specific period of time in a specific timeframe? If we know that, we can easily switch between strategies.
conclusion six (final): There is a secret code in the patterns of the market. there is no such thing as Random chaos. Everything that occurs in the market has a reason. The difference is whether we can know it and act on it or not. Hence, I concluded that by studying the past, it is indeed possible to apply that to the future. The key is how could we relate the three factors of:
- time (week, hour, day, event, news, etc.)
- trending conditions (strong, gradual, sudden, etc.)
- currency (different currencies act differently)
So basically, if we can deduct that a currency (e.g, EURUSD), has been going through trending cycles during similar times of every period (week, day, year, etc.), we have the third variable to find, which is the signal strength (trending power), it is like a mathematical equation. If we know two we can somewhat deduct the third.
The above is something I threw out for discussion so we can try to understand the secret of winning in this market. Many successful traders learned this by experience. By discussion I believe we can speed up things and learn from each other.
Any ideas?
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P.S. I'm already starting to analyze patters of the years 2005, 2006 for different pairs based on the above. I believe that will help me understand how 2007 will look like. (by mere coincidence, this looks like the 100th post of mine! is that a message?
)