Phoenix 2007 (new thread) - page 128
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In general, if you trust your EA, it is better to start using it after a period of bad performance, because you are not so far from your MaxDrawDown and then it should go more up. But if you start after a very good month like in January you have the risk to take the whole drawdown at the beginning. But of course it is easier to start when you see good performances. But I think that to be successful you should do the opposite of what is easy.
With no ofence JLP but... then... when should you start an EA ????!!! It's neither the "right" time...
(a bad time perfomance should be... worst an a good one can even goes up ?!)
With no ofence JLP but... then... when should you start an EA ????!!! It's neither the "right" time... (a bad time perfomance should be... worst an a good one can even goes up ?!)
I am not sure I understood your comment but what I wanted to say is that if you know that your EA had a drawdown of 10% on the last years it is better to start when you have -5% on the last demo trades than when you got +30%.
It is not about to try to know what will happen next but more a matter of probability.
I am not sure I understood your comment but what I wanted to say is that if you know that your EA had a drawdown of 10% on the last years it is better to start when you have -5% on the last demo trades than when you got +30%. It is not about to try to know what will happen next but more a matter of probability.
That's nonsense. You're probably a person who will bet on red (at roulette) when you've seen it hit black 10 times in a row, because it's very improbable that this will happen an 11th time?
That's nonsense. You're probably a person who will bet on red (at roulette) when you've seen it hit black 10 times in a row, because it's very improbable that this will happen an 11th time?
... and because he bets on red this time (it's going to be a sure thing), the 00 will be the score.
AZBOfin
That's nonsense. You're probably a person who will bet on red (at roulette) when you've seen it hit black 10 times in a row, because it's very improbable that this will happen an 11th time?
At the roulette, the individual probability of each event doesn't change of course, because they are independent.
But you should try to have a look at the theory of large numbers and have a bit of mathematical background before saying it's non sense...
it's non sense to compare roulette and trading, or if you think it is the same please play at the roulette you will have more chances of winning than in trading
Anyway the guy who started at the beginning of february had his bank account to help to understand it.
At the roulette, the individual probability of each event doesn't change of course, because they are independent.
But you should try to have a look at the theory of large numbers and have a bit of mathematical background before saying it's non sense...
it's non sense to compare roulette and trading, or if you think it is the same please play at the roulette you will have more chances of winning than in trading
Anyway the guy who started at the beginning of february had his bank account to help to understand it.I am back, I missed a few interesting comments. I personally think of trading in terms of probabilities and every trade have the same probability to turn bad or good. I don't think there is a good or a bad timing. A bad streak can last many trades or just a few. We can only learn and improve our strategies (EAs) and increase our chances for good trades. EAs are just tools automating our strategies. In back testing Pheonix is doing very good so the probability for it to continue is good. There are some DD, some of those DD last 4 trades some less and some winning sequences last up to 22 good trades. At the moment, I dont think there is a way to predict when it is a good time to get in.
I am back, I missed a few interesting comments. I personally think of trading in terms of probabilities and every trade have the same probability to turn bad or good. I don't think there is a good or a bad timing. A bad streak can last many trades or just a few. We can only learn and improve our strategies (EAs) and increase our chances for good trades. EAs are just tools automating our strategies. In back testing Pheonix is doing very good so the probability for it to continue is good. There are some DD, some of those DD last 4 trades some less and some winning sequences last up to 22 good trades. At the moment, I dont think there is a way to predict when it is a good time to get in.
Thank you for you interesting comment that put this thread back on the right track.
Personaly I think that each tick is not independent of the previous one and that's why there are patterns.
For instance if you take Phoenix, as far as I know it is based on a "return to the average system". If there are systems based on the fact that the prices return to the average, I think that it shows that it is considered that in certain configurations the probability to go up or down is not equal.
In my opinion, what is valid on a price level is also valid on a trade level, meaning that it should return to the average percentage of winning threads over the long run. (of course it doesn't predict what will occur next )
Also, this way of starting a new strategy after a DD is advised by famous traders who have written books on this subject (among other things)
Assumptions and probability
I think the basic assumption of forex is that there is a certain regularity in the curves. In other words, a pair is not at a given price one minute, and the next minute at some value thousands of pips away. The fact that there is regularity reflects a momentum, whose causes I would hesitate to try to analyze, except to say that it probably reflects statistical numbers of players acting almost in unison.
So if a pair shows a strong movement in one direction, as a trader you want to be able to benefit from that movement, i.e., get in well before it wanes, and get out when it shows signs of weakening.
What an EA should do is simply apply technical analysis to identify patterns of regularity, and govern its trading behaviour accordingly. We all hope that Phoenix can learn to do this in a consistent manner.
That having been said, I find it difficult to grasp the concept of a "countertrending" system. It seems to me that the point is to identify a movement and go with it, not against it.
Help needed with Phoenix 5.7.0 settings
Have just started trialling Phoenix 5.7.0 and have read Ultimate Guide for Phoenix v2.pdf but settings has me confused.
For example for DecreaseFactor (which has a big L and so must be set by the user), it says the default is 3, even though the value in the Default column is 0. So presumably I change it to 3?
The other thing I don't understand is why most of the settings, including TP and SL, are 0. They are flagged with L so are set by the EA, unless I enter a non-zero value in EA Inputs, is this correct?
TIA
JRtrader
Have just started trialling Phoenix 5.7.0 and have read Ultimate Guide for Phoenix v2.pdf but settings has me confused.
For example for DecreaseFactor (which has a big L and so must be set by the user), it says the default is 3, even though the value in the Default column is 0. So presumably I change it to 3?
The other thing I don't understand is why most of the settings, including TP and SL, are 0. They are flagged with L so are set by the EA, unless I enter a non-zero value in EA Inputs, is this correct?
TIA
JRtraderDecrease Factor doesn't work, don't use it in any version. I changed DecreaseFactor myself in an unofficial version called V5.7.2w.
Those colored letters confused me also, check out the version 5.7.2 ultimate guide V3, find the same field, it may have a updated explanation. I updated that guide from V2 to V3, and I would rather answer questions on the V3 guide.