Discussion - page 10
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Thanks Theimperialone for this proposal.
Well.
What we need to do this portfolio service?
We need the following:
1. Analytical service.
We need to understand which market condition we will have in the next week. Just look at the posts #63, 72, and so on up to the end of this thread. I did it not because of Ichimoku indicator. Because we need to understand what we will have during the next week. Of course I am not very professionsl with this estimation. But we really need it if we want to have some portfolio. And we need it for the manual trading as well.
2. We need to know how particular EA (or manual trading strategy) is reacting on the particular market condition. And it is something different from "the pips" and "winners". We need to evaluate each EA (each trading strategy) for each pair. My statictics will help of course.
3. We need to discuss everything about EAs we are testing. Because my opinion is not enough sometimes.
4. We need to do it for particular brokers because sometimes the data are different.
Thus, you see that this portfolio service (if people will trade with real money) is different service from what we have now.
We can do it but I think it should be some people who really need it.
It may be the absolutely separated service, or it may be the service inside this one.
All the results for the last week testing for all the EAs were already posted Weekly Performance thread.
Here's my 2 cents ....
i think you need to regard these EAs as a portfolio ... similar to how you would hold any other investment portfolio. Some weeks, some will be winners, others losers and some will do little - the important thing is to report the status of all indicators and the performance of the portfolio as a whole... good or bad ... only that will reveal whether the instruments here are making any money or not.
It's not realistic to just report the top 3 or 5 or whatever winners each week with hindsight ... if you do then you are simply showing misleading information... and the "join the elite section where EAs are making 3000 pips a month" statement is highly misleading... it doesn't mention the EAs here that are losing 6000 pips.
So back to the portfolio idea ... I would select what you think are the best combination of x EAs and the symbol/period and report that over y weeks trading. Then periodically, review the portfolio, eliminate a failing EA/symbol/period from the portfolio and replace it with another than you think looks like it might be good ... Just like you would sell a losing stock and replace it with one you think is a winner.
the portfolio content needs to be published beforehand and then reported on afterwards ... then you might have some thing here that is worthwhile following ...
Then the EAs themselves ... each needs to explain their trading strategy ... then people can reasily make suggestions which might help optimise them and seek out new profits.
TheImperialOneWell said, that's pretty much what my plans were to do. It's well known and said by pretty much every "major" trader book writer that not a single mechanical trading system will work all the time. Best way I believe is to pick the top 5 all-time most profitable EAs for each currencies (based on the statistics from forex-tsd) and use those on the required time frame and so on. If one loses (which is likely to happen) hopefully other EAs will be more profitable. Like said above this is the only method that you could really "diversify a portfolio". Then track those 5 per pair and only those 5.
I will post all the statements tomorrow on the EAs' threads and weekly statements you may find on the weekly thread (tomorrow as well).
Now I am posting some weekly analysis here.
I want to note that Goldwarrior did 846 pips for 3 month for USDJPY only testing.
This EA is having Money management so please find the statements in deposit currency (in dollars) since 24st of January.
For two months and one week testing it was US $1036 using 0.1 lot just for one pair - USDJPY (and 0.3 lot sometimes because of Money management included in the code of this EA)..
I will post all the statements tomorrow on the EAs' threads and weekly statements you may find on the weekly thread (tomorrow as well).
Now I am posting some weekly analysis here.
I want to note that Goldwarrior did 846 pips for 3 month for USDJPY only testing.
This EA is having Money management so please find the statements in deposit currency (in dollars) since 24st of January.
For two months and one week testing it was US $1036 using 0.1 lot just for one pair - USDJPY (and 0.3 lot sometimes because of Money management included in the code of this EA)..I have tested for a long time Goldwarrior and saw a great deal of potential but unfortunately, I can't seem to make it trade 0.1 lot without MM.
Is it possible to change the code for it to only trade without Money management? I tried setting k=1 but it doesn't work: The ea still trade - 0.1 then 0.3 etc,,, I want it to trade only 0.1 all the time.
Thanks
Sada
I have tested for a long time Goldwarrior and saw a great deal of potential but unfortunately, I can't seem to make it trade 0.1 lot without MM.
Is it possible to change the code for it to only trade without Money management? I tried setting k=1 but it doesn't work: The ea still trade - 0.1 then 0.3 etc,,, I want it to trade only 0.1 all the time.
Thanks
SadaI could not.
We need to ask Beluck or Igorad to change something inside the code.
But 0.1 and 0.3 is better than 0.1 and 3.0.
Trading the Open
I have noticed that before open on major markets, usu. 30 min. to
an hour, that their respective currency usu. moves significantly
leading up to the open. For example, audusd before Austrailian open,
usdjpy before Toyko open, eurusd before london open, usdcad
before Toronto open, etc. Does anyone know reason for this? I
even looked at economic calendar and there were no news
releases to explain the volatility.
Change k2, as well. if k1 = 1, k2 = 2, then you will at least only trade 0.1 and 0.2 lot size. I believe that k2 = k1 * 2 is always supposed to hold true, anyway, to make the 1st and 2nd-level hedging work properly.
thus,
k1 = 1, k2 = 2
k1 = 2, k2 = 4
k1 = 3, k2 = 6
...
k1 = 30, k2 = 60
etc...
Regards,
Scott
I don't know, but I would guess that the volume of transactions that hit the market at that time would start to stress the liquidity of even the biggest pairs in the forex market (on a market maker by maker basis), which would then start to drive up the ask as supply goes down. Many of the market makers tell you in their conditions of trade that they reserve the right to widen the spread during periods of peak activity (hence lower liquidity).
Anyway...that's how it seems to me...I'm by NO means an expert, so feel free to tell me I'm crazy.
Scott
Change k2, as well. if k1 = 1, k2 = 2, then you will at least only trade 0.1 and 0.2 lot size. I believe that k2 = k1 * 2 is always supposed to hold true, anyway, to make the 1st and 2nd-level hedging work properly.
thus,
k1 = 1, k2 = 2
k1 = 2, k2 = 4
k1 = 3, k2 = 6
...
k1 = 30, k2 = 60
etc...
Regards,
ScottYes, you are right.
It should be the following:
k2/k1=2