Neural Networks - page 5
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I'd recommend everybody to use neurosolutions for better understanding of nn's possibilities. the best result i've achieved was 0 live profitability..
I'd recommend everybody to use neurosolutions for better understanding of nn's possibilities. the best result i've achieved was 0 live profitability..
This is a really cool piece of s/w - it really gives you a idea of what NN are about and you can try it out for free! Thing is, you can spend so much time playing with it, adjusting stuff to make it perfect (which is impossible) that you end up nott having time to actually trade. I spent many hours with this app. but never ended up trading with it...
If anyone is seriously interested in NNs, consider visiting the Wealthlab site to read or contact a trader called 'brucev'. This guy knows practically all there is to know about the subject (I think he did a doctoral thesis on them) and he trades with them as well.
I'd recommend everybody to use neurosolutions for better understanding of nn's possibilities. the best result i've achieved was 0 live profitability..
0 live profitablility? Is that good or bad?
This is a really cool piece of s/w - it really gives you a idea of what NN are about and you can try it out for free! Thing is, you can spend so much time playing with it, adjusting stuff to make it perfect (which is impossible) that you end up nott having time to actually trade. I spent many hours with this app. but never ended up trading with it... If anyone is seriously interested in NNs, consider visiting the Wealthlab site to read or contact a trader called 'brucev'. This guy knows practically all there is to know about the subject (I think he did a doctoral thesis on them) and he trades with them as well.
It seems to me that if you know it cant be perfect, why strive for it. Anything over 51% in your favor is butter....w/ proper MM of course.
Seriously, I think with the right education, Neural Networks can revolutionize trading. These pro traders and hedge fund managers haven't been using this software successfully for years just on luck.
It'd be nice if the Admin made the subject of Neural Networks a section all its own.
How is the AI ea working out?
Really hadn't messed around w/ it, Mega. I was more interested in the actual concept itself, not an E.A. based off the idea. But it might be worth taking a look at later.
As many people asked me (by PM) to collect all the links about Neural Networks in one place, and to select some place/section for that kind of the development s I think that this Analytics section may be good place for that.
Please find the links to all NN we have on our forum.
Neural Network:
- good public discussion thread in analytics section.
Others:
1. Indicators and systems development:
1.1. Self-trained MA cross!: development thread for new generation of the indicators;
1.2. Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm: development thread.
1.3. Genetic Algorithm: elite section development thread.
2. EAs:
2.1. CyberiaTrader: big public thread and elite section thread.
2.2. GSelector:
- Self learning expert: good pubic thread;
- thread about trades is here;
- elite section thread is here.
Let me tell ya something, guys...
1. ANN's don't work, they are no magic solution to to the 'almost' efficient markets. I have experimented with these a lot and I have almost abandoned them as a sole decisioning algorithm. They can still be used for subproblems though .
2. No matter what algorithm you use, your success will be driven by your predictor variables. The improvement of your results that can be attributed to the statistical/machine learning framework will be marginal, well, in most cases one will try a few different approaches and choose the best...
3. A successful system will require many steps- let's say we may use spectral analysis to detect cycles, wavelets to detect short term trends, other statistical measures as inputs to a NN...
4. In the end, in my opinion... we CANNOT predict shiat 90% of the time, we can only hope to be mostly correct in the remaining 10% when we dare to trade.
Cheers!
I have just found this forum and think that perhaps I can add some of my own experiences to this.
I have been walking the NN (and wavelets) path some 7 years now - only the last 2 and a half years have I managed to actually make some profits.
For me, NN's are good (wavelets a tool without which nobody can make a success) - and then, the market will change pace.
When historical data is used for training (your NN), there must be an assumption that in future the market will behave in the same way - this is not the case because, we have short term and long term behavior patterns.
By it's very nature, NN's will tend to train more on short term patterns - they occur much more frequently.
As such, in some way, my problems may be the opposite to most other traders - during periods of consolidation, my system will select turning points with a high degree of accuracy and, as a result my account will rocket up.
During trends, the system will attempt to continue with the pattern - indeed, the market will continue in the direction of the trend.
As a result, my account will grind to a halt.
Talking about the EUR, last year, I made exceptional profits - then, from Aug-Sep the market started trending (to the 1.36 mark) and the system would have emptied my account within about 3 months - as it is, I took a 23% dragdown during this period (before turning off...)
This is exceptionally hard - most traders are dancing on the tables, making good profits while the trend is going...
However - in between (the trends) there still may be months (even years) during which a proper NN system may yield exceptional profits - in March, I made up my dragdown within 2 weeks and since then, trading has been reasonably good...
market neutral trading?
does anyone know of such methods on forex. such as statistical arbitrage between two pairs. such as usdjpy eurjpy. or any pairs that are closely correlated, if there are deviations, we can maybe exploit this.
for instance, you will see a deviations for two pairs closely correlated, you would buy and sell accordingly, waiting for the prices to converge relatively.