Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 24

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Oil companies were among the worst performers on Friday, in line with the behavior shown by the price of crude oil in response to OPEC statements about the expectation of a greater supply of this raw material in the market in 2018 by the non-member countries of this organization.

 

It's impressive how U.S. stocks ignore the government shutdown drama in Washington and rose to all-time highs.

 
psaTrading:

It's impressive how U.S. stocks ignore the government shutdown drama in Washington and rose to all-time highs.


This is a classic bubble case, S&P hit RSI all time high last Friday.

 

The results of UBS officially inaugurate the earnings season of the European banking sector. Today, the IMF announce its economic forecasts for 2018. This event is taking place in Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum will begin tomorrow. This event, attended by politicians, economists, CEOs, central bank presidents, among others, is generally a precious source of insight and opinions from people with a potential to influence the global political-economic environment.

 

Since December 2012, the US debt limit has been reached and since then the State has operated through a series of legal and accounting subterfuges, without having a budget as such. As time goes by the efficiency and duration of these subterfuges is becoming smaller and it will be important that this problem find a more structural solution. 

 

Yesterday, the main catalyst of the rally were the good results of Netflix. Not only did profits exceed estimates, but the number of subscribers to the company's media services was much higher than forecast (8.33 million versus 6.39 million). Netflix shares appreciated 10% and boosted the other technology titles that in turn served as the engine for the rest of the market. Not taking any notice of Netflix's bottom line, the market appears to be going through a phase where investors do not need economic or financial drivers to buy stocks. Positive feeling finds stimuli in itself.

 

The recent hyperbolic rise of the indices is uncommon and often leads to excesses, which ultimately leads investors to regret. Thus, a short-term correction may be the best scenario for the continuation of the current Bull Market.

 

In the uncertain context of recent days, the Hong Kong stock exchange has been a notable exception. This market continues to be used by many global investors as a good way to expose themselves to the Chinese stock markets. In addition to several companies from this country being listed in this market, in the last decade China has become the main economic and commercial partner of this autonomous region, making its companies more interconnected with those of the continent.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.28 08:51

The Week Ahead - bullish breakout (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bullish breakout by 2,813 weekly resistance level to be crossing for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The first four weeks of 2018 have turbocharged the interest in the stock market as the fund flows have broken records. Since the start of the year $58 billion as moved into stock mutual fund and EFTs according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch."
  • "The last sell signal was in March 2013 when the S&P 500 had a range of 1485-1570. By May it had reached a high of 1687. There was then a 7.5%, five week correction, before it again turned higher and it never dropped below 1536. It finished the year at 1841 as it gained over 17% from the end of March so I am not sure that qualifies as a good sell signal."
  • "Last week both the Dow Industrials and S$P 500 were up over 2% while the small cap Russell 2000 was only up 0.65%. The big loser was the Dow Transports which dropped 1.59%. Health care was the leading sector up 3.8% and the Viper ETF favorite Vanguard Health Care (VHT) was up 3.75%)."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 
Following the close of European stock markets, the US market was trading lower, with investors cautious about rising sovereign bond yields. In the absence of relevant business results, attention was focused on the disclosure of economic indicators.
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