Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 10

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Gold is at a critical level and is about to test the 200 week moving average, the last stand of the bulls, plus it is also aligned with the upward trend line.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.05 15:55

S&P 500 - ranging bullish; 2,405 is the key for the possible bearish reversal (based on the article)

The price on S&P 500 daily chart is on bullish ranging above Ichimoku cloud: price is on ranging within 2,453 resistance level for the bullish to be continuing and 2,405 support level for the daily bearish reversal to be started.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the possible bearish reversal in the future.


  • "We see a clean closing daily break below the Thursday low and subsequently the bottom of the range and November trend-line, the bias will quickly shift to bearish. In this case, the first potential line of support is a slope rising up from December under the May low. How much the market leans on it as support is unclear. Price action around a test of this line, should we see a drop, will determine whether we should pay mind to it. If it were to give-way then there isn’t anything significant until the May low at 2352, and then the important February 2016 trend-line which lies not far below."
  • "Heads up: Later today we have June FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT, then Friday the June jobs report will be released. Both have market-moving potential over the short-term, with the minutes likely holding the largest implications."


 

During the past month, car sales in the US fell 3%, being the 6th consecutive monthly decline. Sales of Fiat Chrysler fell 7.40%, Ford’s 5%, General Motors 4.70% and those of Korea’s Hyundai-Kia decreased 15%. On the contrary, sales of Nissan, Toyota and Honda showed slight increases in sales, although these were not enough to offset the falls in Detroit (which remains the heart of the American automotive industry). Volkswagen sales grew 11% year-on-year, when the level of sales was very low, although this increase fell short of estimates.

 

Asian markets closed mostly with modest losses. The fall of oil and the rise of yields in most of the countries of this region. In Japan, 30-year yields peaked in the last 4 months (0.883%). However, the political situation on the Korean peninsula continues to generate some concern. Following the launch of a supposedly intercontinental missile by North Korea, the US and South Korea carried out several exercises that involved the launching of missiles, and the US ambassador to the UN admitted using force to stop North Korea’s nuclear program.

 

Asian markets closed with contained losses, with the exception of the Shanghai stock exchange which ended in a slight rise. The fall of oil and the rise in yields were the themes of the session. In Japan, news circulated that the Central Bank intervened in the debt market, acquiring bonds, in order to halt the sharp rise in yields.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 17:09

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500 - "To conclude last week the market responded positively to the mixed June jobs report – while the headline NFP figure was a solid beat at +222k vs. the consensus estimate of +178k, wage growth (inflation indicator) was slightly lower to 2.5% YoY from the 2.6% expected. Looking ahead to next week, the big event will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifying before Congress and the U.S. House Panel on Wednesday, and then she’ll appear before the Senate Banking Panel on Thursday. Key data prints in the week ahead are CPI, Retail Sales, and UofM Confidence on Friday."


 

Positive signs given by the US employment report boosted Asian indices. The US and US consumers are important customers of the Asian economies' exports, so the employment report has a direct and relevant impact on the respective exchanges.

 

Positive signs given by the US employment report boosted Asian indices. The US and US consumers are important customers of the Asian economies' exports, so the employment report has a direct and relevant impact on the respective exchanges.

 

Positive signs given by the US employment report boosted Asian indices. The US and US consumers are important customers of the Asian economies' exports, so the employment report has a direct and relevant impact on the respective exchanges.

 

The debt market has been driven by a rise in state yields, caused by the words of the Fed and ECB members. Interestingly, at this stage of the market, European yields seem to be influencing American ones, not the other way round, as is usually the case.

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