Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 15

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As the next week’s FED meeting approaches, investors’ expectations for the US Central Bank’s position on how it will reduce its balance of 4200 000 M.USD in assets as a result of 8 years of an ultra-accommodating monetary policy. This week’s economic data should help investors design a preview of next week’s meeting.

 

Despite the immediate immediacy of the launch of new products, the market reaction to the Apple event turned out to be negative. Apple shares fell 0.80% in the session and later 0.18% in the afterhours session.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.16 10:44

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500 - "This coming week will be about the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, so the focus will be on the Fed’s expectations moving forward. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, at this time there is over a 51% chance they will hike rates by 25 bps in December. Will expectations get boosted or dampened on Wednesday? Outside of the Fed meeting, there are no ‘high’ impact data events on the calendar."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.18 16:24

S&P 500  - All-Time Intraday Highs (based on the article)

H4 price is on bullish breakout for 2,506 resistance level to be trying to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The S&P 500 (2,500.23 on Sept. 15) set its all-time intraday high of 2,500.23 on Sept. 15. The weekly chart remains positive with the average above its five-week modified moving average of 2,461.77. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 68.58 last week, up from 61.44 on Sept. 8."
  • "Investment Strategy: Buy weakness to my quarterly value level of 2,322.6. My weekly pivot is 2,460.4. Reduce holdings on strength to my annual, monthly and semiannual risky levels of 2,537.9, 2,569.7 and 2,651.5, respectively."


 

The Friday rally is explained, mainly, by the closing of futures and options. In addition to increasing exponentially the volume of the session, the maturity of this type of derivative contract has, in most cases, a positive impact on the stock market. Similarly, and still statistically speaking, the week following the quadruple witching tends to be negative for stock markets, while increasing volatility and declining stocks.

 

Tomorrow prudence should mark the session, with investors waiting for FED (tomorrow) and Bank of Japan (Thursday) meetings.

 

Statistically speaking, the week following the quadruple witching tends to be negative for stock markets, while increasing volatility and declining stocks. 

 

The FED has a balance sheet in the order of 4500 000 M.USD in assets of various kinds, but mostly bonds, as a result of the acquisitions conducted to resolve the 2009 financial crisis. After several years, with the economy in solid expansion and with the financial sector the FED intends to reduce this gigantic balance sheet without causing major effects on the economy and the financial system. This is an unprecedented task, so the Central Bank will be a pioneer and should set its course as this process unfolds.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.21 19:48

S&P 500  - bullish ranging to be stucked within narrow s/r levels waiting for the strong trend to be started (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart was stucked within narrow support resistance levels: 2,509 and 2,490. If the price breaks 2,590 resistance to below so the bullish trend will be resumed up to the new daily level to be created, if the price breaks 2,490 support to below so the correction may be started.


  • "Yesterday, the FOMC was clearly hawkish, and with that the US dollar ripped while U.S. equities tanked (at least momentarily). The dip in stocks wasn’t really much of a “tank” as the S&P 500 fell only about 10 handles, it just felt like it in this low-volatility environment (VIX closed sub-10). Weakness was short-lived and met with buying no more than about 25-30 minutes after the Fed announcement, erasing all FOMC-induced losses and closing near the highs of the session."
  • "Looking at how the market has acted in recent years after notching new record highs we might not have to wait too long for another spat of volatility. The S&P has had a propensity for punishing those who chased the market into record high territory (three occasions since May). It’s a ‘buy-the-dip’ market. Initial breakout buys may have worked, but the better entries have been when others were exiting into declines."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

The FED meeting caused a sharp rise in US yields, a move that affected its European counterparts early in the session. 

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