Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 3

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April is a month marked by a seasonally negative period for American equities. By April 15, Americans will have to pay their IRS and many turn to the sale of shares or the rescue of investment funds to fund that charge. In the last 20 years, from the beginning of the month to that day, American markets have managed to achieve a positive return only 30% of the time. This is just an empirical data, does not mean that the American indices will repeat this pattern this year.
 
Investors are reacting to a mixed employment report, statements by Fed members as well as the geopolitical environment, after the US launched a military offensive against Syria. The employment report showed that only 98 000 jobs were created during the month of March, despite the unemployment rate falling to the lowest of the last 10 years, from 4.70% to 4.50%.
 
Politics begins to gain weight among the issues facing investors this Easter, as the first round of the French elections, scheduled for April 23, approaches. According to the latest polls the distance between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron is narrowing.
 
The US indexes closed at modest losses, managing to recover a sharp share of the devaluations seen earlier in the session. The main catalyst for the recovery was the intervention of President Trump who said he would be willing to replace the Dodd-Frank law with another law. Again, Donald Trump's words were somewhat vague, having failed to advance what the outlines of the new law would be. This news was enough for the financial sector to end up with minimal losses (-0.07%), not reflecting the sharp decline in yields observed in recent sessions.
 
Geopolitical uncertainty (especially that related to the Korean Peninsula) continued to weigh on Asian markets. Although not the central theme of the current situation, it should be noted that Chinese exports increased by 20.30% in March, up from an estimated 15.50%. In turn, imports grew by 16.40% compared to forecasts of only 4.30%. Although these variations may still have been influenced by seasonal factors are important signs of strength that the Chinese economy is giving.
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.15 10:49

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500 - "U.S. markets ended last week on a negative note, closing at their worst levels of the holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 broke the November trend-line on Wednesday after carving out a second lower high on the day the FOMC released its minutes from the March policy meeting. The next leg in this sequence of lower highs since the March record high, is for a lower low below last month’s low of 2322. The next level of support on a lower low may come in at the lower parallel around 2307. The next levels of price support comes in at 2301, and with aggressive selling we could see a move towards the 2270s. It will take some work from current levels to turn the picture positive."


 
People feel most comfortable in a congestion or a consolidation area, but this may be the most dangerous place to be. So it would be logical to conclude that trading outside the comfort zone shall be the safest and correct one.
 
Asian stock markets ended in different directions in an environment influenced by geopolitical tensions. US Vice President Mike Pence's visit to Asia continues to be monitored by investors. In the Japanese market, banks recorded gains of over 2%, with Nomura leading the valuations.
 
I think gold will also fall this month then nest month we buy with tp 1300 I make 100 trade with no one loos
 
Theresa May's decision to call for elections in early June surprised investors yesterday, who only expected the elections to be held in 2020, as previously advocated by the British Prime Minister. This decision could increase political uncertainty in Europe and is another obstacle that the rally of the markets of the Old Continent will have to overcome. In fact, these elections will follow the presidential elections in France (23 April and 7 May) and precede the parliamentary elections in France (11 and 18 June) and Germany (24 September).
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