Something Interesting in Financial Video November 2013 - page 4
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Candlesticks - Vol 6 - Hanging Man
Forum
Libraries: MQL5 Wizard - Candlestick Patterns Class
newdigital, 2013.09.17 12:28
Hanging ManThe Hanging Man candlestick formation, as one could predict from the name, is a bearish sign. This pattern occurs mainly at the top of uptrends and is a warning of a potential reversal downward. It is important to emphasize that the Hanging Man pattern is a warning of potential price change, not a signal, in and of itself, to go short.
The Hanging Man formation, just like the Hammer, is created when the open, high, and close are roughly the same price. Also, there is a long lower shadow, which should be at least twice the length of the real body.
When the high and the open are the same, a bearish Hanging Man candlestick is formed and it is considered a stronger bearish sign than when the high and close are the same, forming a bullish Hanging Man (the bullish Hanging Man is still bearish, just less so because the day closed with gains).
After a long uptrend, the formation of a Hanging Man is bearish because prices hesitated by dropping significantly during the day. Granted, buyers came back into the stock, future, or currency and pushed price back near the open, but the fact that prices were able to fall significantly shows that bears are testing the resolve of the bulls. What happens on the next day after the Hanging Man pattern is what gives traders an idea as to whether or not prices will go higher or lower.
Hanging Man Candlestick Chart ExampleThe chart below of Alcoa (AA) stock illustrates a Hanging Man, and the large red bearish candle after the Hanging Man strengthens the bears thinking that a downward reversal is coming:
In the chart above of Alcoa, the market began the day testing to find where demand would enter the market. Alcoa's stock price eventually found support at the low of the day. The bears' excursion downward was halted and prices ended the day slightly above the close.
Confirmation that the uptrend was in trouble occured when Alcoa gapped down the next day and continued downward creating a large bearish red candle. To some traders, this confirmation candle, plus the fact that the upward trendline support was broken, gave the signal to go short.
It is important to repeat, that the Hanging Man formation is not the sign to go short; other indicators such as a trendline break or confirmation candle should be used to generate sell signals.
The bullish version of the Hanging Man is the Hammer formationForum
Libraries: MQL5 Wizard - Candlestick Patterns Class
newdigital, 2013.09.16 18:44
Hammer
The Hammer candlestick formation is a significant bullish reversal candlestick pattern that mainly occurs at the bottom of downtrends.
The Hammer formation is created when the open, high, and close are roughly the same price. Also, there is a long lower shadow, twice the length as the real body.
When the high and the close are the same, a bullish Hammer candlestick is formed and it is considered a stronger formation because the bulls were able to reject the bears completely plus the bulls were able to push price even more past the opening price.
In contrast, when the open and high are the same, this Hammer formation is considered less bullish, but nevertheless bullish. The bulls were able to counteract the bears, but were not able to bring the price back to the price at the open.
The long lower shadow of the Hammer implies that the market tested to find where support and demand was located. When the market found the area of support, the lows of the day, bulls began to push prices higher, near the opening price. Thus, the bearish advance downward was rejected by the bulls.
Hammer Candlestick Chart ExampleThe chart below of American International Group (AIG) stock illustrates a Hammer reversal pattern after a downtrend:
In the chart above of AIG, the market began the day testing to find where demand would enter the market. AIG's stock price eventually found support at the low of the day. In fact, there was so much support and subsequent buying pressure, that prices were able to close the day even higher than the open, a very bullish sign.
The Hammer is an extremely helpful candlestick pattern to help traders visually see where support and demand is located. After a downtrend, the Hammer can signal to traders that the downtrend could be over and that short positions should probably be covered.
However, other indicators should be used in conjunction with the Hammer candlestick pattern to determine buy signals, for example, waiting a day to see if a rally off of the Hammer formation continues or other chart indications such as a break of a downward trendline. But other previous day's clues could enter into a traders analysis. An example of these clues, in the chart above of AIG, shows three prior day's Doji's (signs of indecision) that suggested that prices could be reversing trend; in that case and for an aggressive buyer, the Hammer formation could be the trigger to go long.
The bearish version of the Hammer is the Hanging Man formation
Another similar candlestick pattern to the Hammer is the Dragonfly Doji
Candlesticks - Vol 8 - Inverted Hammer
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Libraries: MQL5 Wizard - Candlestick Patterns Class
newdigital, 2013.09.18 12:33
Inverted Hammer
The Inverted Hammer candlestick formation occurs mainly at the bottom of downtrends and is a warning of a potential reversal upward. It is important to note that the Inverted pattern is a warning of potential price change, not a signal, in and of itself, to buy.
The Inverted Hammer formation, just like the Shooting Star formation, is created when the open, low, and close are roughly the same price. Also, there is a long upper shadow, which should be at least twice the length of the real body.
When the low and the open are the same, a bullish Inverted Hammer candlestick is formed and it is considered a stronger bullish sign than when the low and close are the same, forming a bearish Hanging Man (the bearish Hanging Man is still considered bullish, just not as much because the day ended by closing with losses).
After a long downtrend, the formation of an Inverted Hammer is bullish because prices hesitated their move downward by increasing significantly during the day. Nevertheless, sellers came back into the stock, future, or currency and pushed prices back near the open, but the fact that prices were able to increase significantly shows that bulls are testing the power of the bears. What happens on the next day after the Inverted Hammer pattern is what gives traders an idea as to whether or not prices will go higher or lower.
Inverted Hammer Candlestick Chart ExampleThe chart below of the S&P 500 Futures contract shows the Inverted Hammer foreshadowing future price increases:
In the chart above of e-mini future, the market began the day by gapping down. Prices moved higher, until resistance and supply was found at the high of the day. The bulls' excursion upward was halted and prices ended the day below the open.
Confirmation that the dowtrend was in trouble occured the next day when the E-mini S&P 500 Futures contract gapped up the next day and continued to move upward, creating a bullish green candle. To some traders, this confirmation candle, plus the fact that the downward trendline resistance was broken, gave the signal to go long.
It is important to repeat, that the Inverted Hammer formation is not the signal to go long; other indicators such as a trendline break or confirmation candle should be used to generate the actual buy signal.
The bearish version of the Inverted Hammer is the Shooting Star formation191. Video Futures Trading Course - The Stop Order
Losses can accumulate just as quickly as profits in futures trading. Nearly every successful trader uses Stop-Loss Orders in his trading to ensure profits are 'locked in' and losses are minimised.
How do Stop-Losses work?A stop-loss is usually placed when a trade is entered, although it can be entered or moved at any time. It is placed slightly below or above the current market price, depending on whether you are buying or selling.
For example, say Pork Bellies is trading at $55.00 and you think prices are about to rise. You decide to buy one Pork Bellies contract, but you don't want to risk more than $800 on the trade. A one-cent move in the market is worth $4.00 on a pork bellies futures contract so, therefore, you would place your stop at $53.00 (200 cents away from the current price x $4 per point = $800).
You can also move a stop-loss order to protect any profits you accumulate.
Taking the Pork Bellies example: Two weeks later, bellies are now trading at $65.00. You are now up $4000 (1000 cents of movement x $4). To protect these profits, you can raise your stop-loss simply by calling your broker. Say you place it at $63.00, you have locked it a profit of at least $3200 and now risk $800 to your new stop level.
But what if the market went against you? Going back to the original position when you bought at $55.00 with a stop at $53.00: what happens if the market suddenly tumbles down to $51.00 during the day? Your trade would automatically be 'stopped out' at your stop level of $53.00 for an $800 loss. The fact that the market closed the day at $51.00 is irrelevant as you are now out of the market. (Had you not used a stop-loss and viewed the market at the end of the day, you would have large losses on your hands!)
The same would happen if the market reached $65.00 and you had raised your stop to $63.00: If the market fell from here, say to $62.80, you would be stopped out at $63.00 and would have a profit of $3200. Even if the market suddenly reversed here and rose to $79.00, this would be irrelevant as you are now out of the market.
This last example would be annoying because if you hadn't been stopped out, you would now be $9600 in profit. But you were stopped out at your $63.00 stop. The market only went 20-cents under this and reversed!
It is for this reason that some traders don't use stops: they have been stopped out in the past JUST when the market was about to go their way.
The solution is not to abandon using stops as this is EXTREMELY RISKY. The solution is to use stops effectively.
(In fast moving markets it is sometimes impossible for brokers to get your orders exited exactly on your stop loss limits. They are legally required to do their best, but if the price in the trading pit suddenly jumps over your limit, you may be required to settle the difference. In the above scenario, the price of Pork Bellies could open trading at $62.50, fifty cents through your stop at $63.00. Your broker would have to exit your trade here and, in fact, you would lose $1000, $200 more than your anticipated $800.)
Candlesticks - Vol 9 - Doji
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Libraries: MQL5 Wizard - Candlestick Patterns Class
newdigital, 2013.09.13 15:57
Dragonfly Doji
The Dragonfly Doji is a significant bullish reversal candlestick pattern that mainly occurs at the bottom of downtrends.
The Dragonfly Doji is created when the open, high, and close are the same or about the same price (Where the open, high, and close are exactly the same price is quite rare). The most important part of the Dragonfly Doji is the long lower shadow.
The long lower shadow implies that the market tested to find where demand was located and found it. Bears were able to press prices downward, but an area of support was found at the low of the day and buying pressure was able to push prices back up to the opening price. Thus, the bearish advance downward was entirely rejected by the bulls.
Dragonfly Doji Candlestick Chart ExampleThe chart below of the mini-Dow Futures contract illustrates a Dragonfly Doji occuring at the bottom of a downtrend:
In the chart above of the mini-Dow, the market began the day testing to find where demand would enter the market. The mini-Dow eventually found support at the low of the day, so much support and subsequent buying pressure, that prices were able to close the day approximately where they started the day.
The Dragonfly Doji is an extremely helpful Candlestick pattern to help traders visually see where support and demand is located. After a downtrend, the Dragonfly Doji can signal to traders that the downtrend could be over and that short positions should probably be covered. Other indicators should be used in conjunction with the Dragonfly Doji pattern to determine buy signals, for example, a break of a downward trendline.
The bearish version of the Dragonfly Doji is the Gravestone DojiForum
Libraries: MQL5 Wizard - Candlestick Patterns Class
newdigital, 2013.09.16 08:38
Gravestone Doji
The Gravestone Doji is a significant bearish reversal candlestick pattern that mainly occurs at the top of uptrends.
The Gravestone Doji is created when the open, low, and close are the same or about the same price (Where the open, low, and close are exactly the same price is quite rare). The most important part of the Graveston Doji is the long upper shadow.
The long upper shadow is generally interpreted by technicians as meaning that the market is testing to find where supply and potential resistance is located.
The construction of the Gravestone Doji pattern occurs when bulls are able to press prices upward.
However, an area of resistance is found at the high of the day and selling pressure is able to push prices back down to the opening price. Therefore, the bullish advance upward was entirely rejected by the bears.
Gravestone Doji ExampleThe chart below of Altria (MO) stock illustrates a Gravestone Doji that occured at the top of an uptrend:
In the chart above of Altria (MO) stock, the market began the day testing to find where support would enter the market. Altria eventually found resistance at the high of the day, and subsequently fell back to the opening's price.
The Gravestone Doji is an extremely helpful Candlestick reversal pattern to help traders visually see where resistance and supply is likely located. After an uptrend, the Gravestone Doji can signal to traders that the uptrend could be over and that long positions should probably be exited. But other indicators should be used in conjunction with the Gravestone Doji pattern to determine an actual sell signal. A potential trigger could be a break of the upward trendline support.
The reverse of the Gravestone Doji is the bullish Dragonfly Doji192. Using Market, Stop, and Limits to Close Futures Trades
Through the control offered by the exchanges, and government regulation, trading in the commodities markets does offer some limited protection from manipulation. The use of prudent orders does also offer some protection from loss.
The Short Futures Position
This simply means taking a short position in the hope that the futures price will go down. There is nothing to borrow and return when you take a short position since delivery, if it ever takes place, doesn't become an issue until some time in the future.
Limit and Stop-Loss Orders
"Limit orders" are common in the futures markets. In such cases, the customer instructs the broker to buy or sell only if the price of the contract he is holding, or wishes to hold, reaches a certain point. Limit orders are usually considered good only during a specific trading session, but they may also be marked "G.T.C." good till canceled.
Maximum Daily Price Moves
Sometimes futures prices in certain markets will move sharply in one direction or the other following very important news extremely bad weather in a growing area or a political upheaval, for instance. To provide for more orderly markets, the exchanges have definite daily trading limits on most contracts.
Most futures exchanges use formulas to increase a contract's daily trading limit if that limit has been reached for a specific number of consecutive trading days. Also. in some markets, trading limits are removed prior to expiration of the nearby futures contract. For other contracts, including stock index and foreign currency futures, no trading limits exist.
The Commodity Exchange Act
Trading in futures is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an independent agency of the United States government. The CFTC administers and enforces the Commodity Exchange Act.
Episode 69: The Aroon Indicator
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Indicators: Aroon
newdigital, 2013.08.24 12:57
Aroon Indicator Technical Indicator :
Developed by Tushar Chande
The Aroon indicator is used to determine if a trading instrument is trending or not.
It is also used to indicate how strong the trend is.
The Aroon indicator is used to identify the beginning of a trend, the name aroon means morning or dawn. This indicator is used to identify a trend early thus its name.
The Aroon indicator has two lines
Aroon UP
Percentage of time between the start of a time period and the highest point that price has reached during that period.
If price sets a new high Aroon UP will be 100. For each new high Aroon stays at 100. However, if price moves down by a certain percentage, then that percentage is subtracted from the 100 and Aroon UP starts to move down. This means that if Aroon UP stays at 100 then price is making new highs but when it starts to move down then price is not making new highs.
If However price is making new lows for a particular price period then Aroon UP will be at Zero
Aroon DOWN
Aroon DOWN is Calculated the same as Aroon UP but this time using the lowest point instead of the highest point.
When a new low is set Aroon DOWN is at 100 and when a new high is set Aroon DOWN is at Zero.
Technical Analysis of Aroon Indicator
Aroon uses the 50 % level to measure momentum of the trend.
Buy Signal and exit signal
Aroon UP above 50 is a technical buy signal
Aroon UP dipping below 50 is an exit signal if you had bought the currency.
Sell Signal and exit signal
Aroon DOWN below 50 is a technical sell signal.
Aroon UP rising above 50 is an exit signal if you had sold the currency.
Candlesticks - Vol 10 - Harami
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Libraries: MQL5 Wizard - Candlestick Patterns Class
newdigital, 2013.09.17 14:23
Harami
The Harami (meaning "pregnant" in Japanese) Candlestick Pattern is a reversal pattern. The pattern consists of two Candlesticks:
The Harami Pattern is considered either bullish or bearish based on the criteria below:
Bearish Harami: A bearish Harami occurs when there is a large bullish green candle on Day 1 followed by a smaller bearish or bullish candle on Day 2. The most important aspect of the bearish Harami is that prices gapped down on Day 2 and were unable to move higher back to the close of Day 1. This is a sign that uncertainty is entering the market.
Bullish Harami: A bullish Harami occurs when there is a large bearish red candle on Day 1 followed by a smaller bearish or bullish candle on Day 2. Again, the most important aspect of the bullish Harami is that prices gapped up on Day 2 and price was held up and unable to move lower back to the bearish close of Day 1.
Harami Candlestick Chart ExampleThe chart below of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures contract shows an example of both a bullish and bearish Harami candlestick pattern:
The first Harami pattern shown above on the chart of the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Future is a bullish reversal Harami. First there was a long bearish red candle. Second, the market gapped up at the open. In the case above, Day 2 was a bullish candlestick, which made the bullish Harami even more bullish.
Harami Candlestick Buy SignalA buy signal could be triggered when the day after the bullish Harami occured, price rose higher, closing above the downward resistance trendline. A bullish Harami pattern and a trendline break is a potent combination resulting in a strong buy signal.
The second Harami pattern shown above on the chart of the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Future is a bearish reversal Harami. The first candle was a long bullish green candle. On the second candle, the market gapped down at the open. The chart above of the e-mini shows that Day 2 was a bearish candlestick; this made the bearish Harami even more bearish.
Harami Candlestick Sell SignalA sell signal could be triggered when the day after the bearish Harami occured, price fell even further down, closing below the upward support trendline. When combined, a bearish Harami pattern and a trendline break is a strong indication to sell.
A somewhat opposite two candlestick reversal pattern is the Bearish Engulfing PatternForum
Libraries: MQL5 Wizard - Candlestick Patterns Class
newdigital, 2013.09.18 12:33
Inverted Hammer
The Inverted Hammer candlestick formation occurs mainly at the bottom of downtrends and is a warning of a potential reversal upward. It is important to note that the Inverted pattern is a warning of potential price change, not a signal, in and of itself, to buy.
The Inverted Hammer formation, just like the Shooting Star formation, is created when the open, low, and close are roughly the same price. Also, there is a long upper shadow, which should be at least twice the length of the real body.
When the low and the open are the same, a bullish Inverted Hammer candlestick is formed and it is considered a stronger bullish sign than when the low and close are the same, forming a bearish Hanging Man (the bearish Hanging Man is still considered bullish, just not as much because the day ended by closing with losses).
After a long downtrend, the formation of an Inverted Hammer is bullish because prices hesitated their move downward by increasing significantly during the day. Nevertheless, sellers came back into the stock, future, or currency and pushed prices back near the open, but the fact that prices were able to increase significantly shows that bulls are testing the power of the bears. What happens on the next day after the Inverted Hammer pattern is what gives traders an idea as to whether or not prices will go higher or lower.
Inverted Hammer Candlestick Chart ExampleThe chart below of the S&P 500 Futures contract shows the Inverted Hammer foreshadowing future price increases:
In the chart above of e-mini future, the market began the day by gapping down. Prices moved higher, until resistance and supply was found at the high of the day. The bulls' excursion upward was halted and prices ended the day below the open.
Confirmation that the dowtrend was in trouble occured the next day when the E-mini S&P 500 Futures contract gapped up the next day and continued to move upward, creating a bullish green candle. To some traders, this confirmation candle, plus the fact that the downward trendline resistance was broken, gave the signal to go long.
It is important to repeat, that the Inverted Hammer formation is not the signal to go long; other indicators such as a trendline break or confirmation candle should be used to generate the actual buy signal.
The bearish version of the Inverted Hammer is the Shooting Star formationHow to trade the Relative Vigor Index (RVI) in Forex
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Indicators: Relative Vigor Index (RVI)
newdigital, 2013.08.28 15:32
Relative Vigor Index Technical Indicator
Developed by John Ehlers
The RVI index combines the older concepts of technical analysis with modern digital signal processing theories and filters to create a practical & useful indicator.
The basic principle behind the RVI index is simple –
The momentum (vigor) of the move will therefore established by where the prices end up at the close of the candlestick. The RVI plots two lines the RVI Line and the signal Line.
The RVI index Indicator is essentially based on measuring of the average difference between the closing and opening price, and this value is then averaged to the mean daily trading range and then plotted.
The makes the RVI index a responsive oscillator that has quick turning points that are in phase with the market cycles of prices.
Technical Analysis Ehlers Relative Vigor Index Technical Indicator
The RVI is an oscillator indicator. The basic method of interpreting the RVI Index is to use the crossovers of the RVI and the RVI Signal Line. Signals are generated when the there is a crossover of the two lines.
Bullish Signals- A buy signal occurs when the RVI crosses above the RVI Signal Line. Bearish Signals- A sell signal occurs when the RVI crosses below the RVI Signal Line.
Multiple Moving Averages & Ribbon Studies
How to use Multiple Moving Averages & Ribbon Studies for technical analysis when trading stocks and options
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How to Start with Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2013.07.15 21:19
Just good indicator found in Metatrader 5 CodeBase : GUPPY MULTIPLE MOVING AVERAGES :
These are two groups of exponential moving averages. The short term group is a 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 and 15 day moving averages. This is a proxy for the behaviour of short term traders and speculators in the market.
The long term group is made up of 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 60 day moving averages. This is a proxy for the long term investors in the market.
The relationship within each of these groups tells us when there is agreement on value - when they are close together - and when there is disagreement on value - when they are well spaced apart.
The relationship between the two groups tells the trader about the strength of the market action. A change in price direction that is well supported by both short and long term investors signals a strong trading opportunity. The crossover of the two groups of moving averages is not as important as the relationship between them.
When both groups compress at the same time it alerts the trader to increased price volatility and the potential for good trading opportunities.
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The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is an indicator that tracks the inferred activity of the two major groups in the market. These are investors and traders. Traders are always probing for a change in the trend. In a downtrend they will take a trade in anticipation of a new up trend developing. If it does not develop, then they get out of the trade quickly. If the trend does change, then they stay with the trade, but continue to use a short term management approach. No matter how long the up trend remains in place, the trader is always alert for a potential trend change. Often they use a volatility based indicator like the count back line, or a short term 10 day moving average, to help identify the exit conditions. The traders focus is on not losing money. This means he avoids losing trading capital when the trade first starts, and later he avoids losing too much of open profits as the trade moves into success.
We track their inferred activity by using a group of short term moving averages. These are 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 and 15 day exponentially calculated moving averages. We select this combination because three days is about half a trading week. Five days is one trading week. Eight days is about a week and a half.
The traders always lead the change in trend. Their buying pushes prices up in anticipation of a trend change. The only way the trend can survive is if other buyers also come into the market. Strong trends are supported by long term investors. These are the true gamblers in the market because they tend to have a great deal of faith in their analysis. They just know they are right, and it takes a lot to convince them otherwise. When they buy a stock they invest money, their emotions, their reputation and their ego. They simply do not like to admit to a mistake. This may sound overstated, but think for a moment about your investment in AMP or TLS. If purchased several years ago these are both losing investments yet they remain in many portfolios and perhaps in yours.
The investor takes more time to recognize the change in a trend. He follows the lead set by traders. We track the investors inferred activity by using a 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 60 day exponentially calculated moving average. Each average is increased by one week. We jump two weeks from 50 to 60 days in the final series because we originally used the 60 day average as a check point.
This reflects the original development of this indicator where our focus was on the way a moving average crossover delivered information about agreement on value and price over multiple time frames. Over the years we have moved beyond this interpretation and application of the indicator. In the notes over the coming weeks we will show how this has developed.
Our starting point was the lag that existed between the time of a genuine trend break and the time that a moving average cross over entry signal was generated. Our focus was on the change from a downtrend to an up trend. Our preferred early warning tool was the straight edge trend line which is simple to use and quite accurate. The problem with using a single straight edge trend line was that some breakouts were false. The straight edge trend line provided no way to separate the false from the genuine.
On the other hand, the moving average crossover based on a 10 and 30 day calculation, provided a higher level of certainty that the trend break was genuine. However the disadvantage was that the crossover signal might come many days after the initial trend break signal. This time lag was further extended because the signal was based on end of day prices. We see the exact cross over today, and if we were courageous, we could enter tomorrow. Generally traders waited for another day to verify that the crossover had actually taken place which delayed the entry until 2 days after the actual crossover. This time lag meant that price had often moved up considerably by the time the trade was opened.
The standard solution called for a combination of short term moving averages to move the crossover point further back in time so that it was closer to the breakout signaled by a close above the straight edge trend line. The drawback was that the shorter the moving average, the less reliable it became. In plotting multiple moving averages on a single chart display four significant features emerged.
They were:
These broad relationships, and the more advanced relationships used with the GMMA are summarized in the chart. Over the following series of articles we will examine the identification and application of each of these relationships.
This is the most straightforward application of the GMMA and it worked well with “V’ shaped trend changes. It was not about taking the lag out of the moving average calculation. It is about validating a prior trend break signal by examining the relationship between price and value. Once the initial trend break signal is validated by the GMMA the trader is able to enter a breakout trade with a higher level of confidence.
The CBA chart shows the classic application of the GMMA. We start with the breakout above the straight edge trend line. The vertical line shows the decision point on the day of the breakout. We need to be sure that this breakout is for real and likely to continue upwards. After several months in a downtrend the initial breakout sometimes fails and develops as shown by the thick black line. This signals a change in the nature of the trend line from a resistance function prior to the breakout to a support function after the breakout.
The GMMA is used to assess the probability that the trend break shown by the straight edge trend line is genuine. We start by observing the activity of the short term group. This tells us how traders are thinking. In area A we see a compression of the averages. This suggests that traders have reached an agreement on price and value. The price of CBA has been driven so low that many traders now believe it is worth more than the current traded price. The only way they can take advantage of this ‘cheap’ price is to buy stock. Unfortunately many other short term traders have reached the same conclusion. They also want to buy at this price. A bidding war erupts. Traders who believe they are missing out on the opportunity outbid their competitors to ensure they get a position in the stock at favorable prices.
The compression of these averages shows agreement about price and value. The expansion of the group shows that traders are excited about the future prospects of increased value even though prices are still rising. These traders buy in anticipation of a trend change. They are probing for a trend change.
We use the straight edge trend line to signal an increased probability of a trend change. When this signal is generated we observe this change in direction and separation in the short term group of averages. We know traders believe this stock has a future. We want confirmation that the long term investors are also buying this confidence.
The long term group of averages, at the decision point, is showing signs of compression and the beginning of a change in direction. Notice how quickly the compression starts and the decisive change in direction. This is despite the longest average of 60 days which we would normally expect to lag well behind any trend change. This compression in the long term group is evidence of the synchronicity relationship that makes the GMMA so useful.
This compression and change in direction tells us that there is an increased probability that the change in trend direction is for real – it is sustainable. This encourages us to buy the stock soon after the decision point shown.
The GMMA picks up a seismic shift in the markets sentiment as it happens, even though we are using a 60 day moving average.. Later we will look at how this indicator is used to develop reliable advance signals of this change. This compression and eventual crossover within the long term group takes place in area B. The trend change is confirmed. The agreement amongst investors about price and value cannot last. Where there is agreement some people see opportunity. There are many investors who will have missed out on joining the trend change prior to area B. Now the change is confirmed they want to get part of the action. Generally investors move larger funds than traders. Their activity in the market has a larger impact.
The latecomers can only buy stock if they outbid their competitors. The stronger the initial trend, the more pressure there is to get an early position. This increased bidding supports the trend. This is shown by the way the long term group continue to move up, and by the way the long term group of averages separates. The wider the spread the more powerful the underlying trend.
Even the traders retain faith in this tend change. The sell off that takes place in area C is not very strong. The group of short term averages dips towards the long term group and then bounces away quickly. The long term group of averages show that investors take this opportunity to buy stock at temporarily wakened prices. Although the long term group falters out at this point, the degree of separation remains relatively constant and this confirms the strength of the emerging trend.
The temporary collapse of the short term group comes after a 12% appreciation in price. Short term traders exit the trade taking short term profits at this level of return and this is reflected by the compression and collapse of the short term group of averages. As long term investors step into the market and buy CBA at these weakened prices, traders sense that the trend is well supported. Their activity takes off, and the short term group of averages rebounds, separates, and then run parallel to the long term group as the trend continues.
The GMMA identifies a significant change in the markets opinion about CBA. The compression of the short term and long term groups validates the trend break signal generated by a close above the straight edge trend line. Using this basic application of the GMMA, the trader has the confidence necessary to buy CBA at, or just after the decision points shown on the chart extract.
Using this straightforward application of the GMMA also kept traders out of false breakouts. The straight edge trend line provides the first indication that a downtrend may be turning to an up trend. The CSL chart shows two examples of a false break from a straight edge trend line. We start with decision point A. The steep downtrend is clearly broken by a close above the trend line. If this is a genuine trend break then we have the opportunity to get in early well before any moving average crossover signal.
This trend break collapses quickly. If we had first observed this chart near decision point B then we may have chosen to plot the second trend line as shown. This plot takes advantage of the information on the chart. We know the first break was false, and by taking this into account we set the second trend line plot. Can this trend break be relied upon? If we are right we get to ride a new up trend. If we are wrong we stand to lose money if we stay with a continuation of the downtrend. The straight edge trend line by itself does not provide enough information to make a good decision.
When we apply the GMMA we get a getter idea of the probability of the trend line break actually being the start of a new up trend. The key relationship is the level of separation in the long term group of averages, and trend direction they are traveling. At both decision point A and decision point B the long term group is well separated. Investors do not like this stock. Every time there is a rise in prices they take advantage of this to sell. Their selling overwhelms the market and drives prices down so the downtrend continues.
The degree of separation between the two groups of moving averages also makes it more difficult for either of the rallies to successfully change the direction of the trend. The most likely outcome is a weak rally followed by a collapse and continuation of the down trend. This observation keeps the trader, and the investor, out of CSL.
Looking forward we do see a convergence between the short term group of averages and the long term group of averages. Additionally the long term group begins to narrow down, suggesting a developing level of agreement about price and value amongst investors in April and May. In late March the 10 day moving average closes above the 30 day moving average, generating a classic moving average buy signal.
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Indicators: GMMA
newdigital, 2013.10.17 07:10
This is Metatrader 5 using this indicator for now (EURUSD D1) :