Gee I just can't win!

 

Got one of my EAs' going last night but I just can't seem to make enough profit!

Bars in test 3867992

Ticks modelled 37210107

Modelling quality 25.00%

Mismatched charts errors 0

Initial deposit 10000.00

Total net profit -3442.41

Gross profit 3070.79

Gross loss -6513.20

Profit factor 0.47

Expected payoff -1.89

Absolute drawdown 3542.91

Maximal drawdown 3556.91 (35.52%)

Relative drawdown 35.52% (3556.91)

Total trades 1819

Short positions (won %) 0 (0.00%)

Long positions (won %) 1819 (87.74%)

Profit trades (% of total) 1596 (87.74%)

Loss trades (% of total) 223 (12.26%)

Largest

profit trade 41.00

loss trade -51.00

Average

profit trade 1.92

loss trade -29.21

Maximum

consecutive wins (profit in money) 37 (88.85)

consecutive losses (loss in money) 5 (-200.00)

Maximal

consecutive profit (count of wins) 103.85 (24)

consecutive loss (count of losses) -200.00 (5)

Average

consecutive wins 8

consecutive losses 1

 

Looks like a 'long only scalper' with a stoploss much larger than take profit?

Whats wrong with shorts?

Describe the system you are trying to automate, including pair/s trading hours, triggers etc?

Have you traded this strategy manually at all?

-BB-

 
BarrowBoy:

Looks like a 'long only scalper' with a stoploss much larger than take profit?

Whats wrong with shorts?

Describe the system you are trying to automate, including pair/s trading hours, triggers etc?

Have you traded this strategy manually at all?

-BB-


Yes you are correct it is a "long only scalper" - the stoploss has been giving me grief ever since the service provider sent me an update.

The pair is AUD/USD @ 1 min. It has a look at what the charts have been doing at the hourly bar rate before trying to look for an open.

The EA uses a combination of Bolinger bands, MACD and Momentum to look for an open.

I do use this strategy manually and it works well for me - I just haven't perfected it as an EA yet.

I am by no means an expert coder so I guess it will take a bit of time to perfect.

 

Aussie has taken some down moves lately, perhaps you need a long term trend filter

Eg the SFX MCL on the H1 or H4 chart, when that is long, use your scalper?

My guess is your traders instinct is subconciously keeping you out when manually trading on an adverse day...?

-BB-

 

Thanks -BB- I will have a play with SFX MCL and see how it goes.

Not sure why I seem to do well because I am reasonably new to Forex.

The reason why I thought I would give it a go is that I seem to only manage around 15 ~ 40% PA with the stock market.

With the Ausie stock market I use an app called Amibroker which I have written a very good formula but it only picks around 1 ~ 4 stocks from the

ASX top 200 a month.

Forex seems to be a much bigger challenge but I am sure I will get used to it.

 

> Forex seems to be a much bigger challenge but I am sure I will get used to it

Thats the spirit :)

Keep in mind that some stock trading strategies and indicators do not travel well over to Forex

The 'harmonics' can be quite different, and different again between pairs

So... stick with the one pair and get to know it

Good Luck

-BB-

 
mbirrell:
Modelling quality 25.00%
Get some real history. 90% isn't that great.
 

Modelling quality is irrelevant.

You may have a perfect model, but the world tomorrow may change, and your modelling quality (yesterday) counts for nothing.

 

> Modelling quality is irrelevant.

I agree to an extent - I prefer to have 'all green' rather than pink/green or pink
So I think the exact modelling % matters less than matching the number of live trades in the same period +/- 1-2%

You wont get the same exact entries/exits/profits but the number of trades should match reasoably closely on a 'good' system

-BB-

 

I have found a good combination of indicators for when I am Elliot Wave hunting.

The first one is the multi time frame support and resistance indicator.

Second is the ZigZag indicator.

Third is the good old Fib tool.

Then combine this with 3 leading type indicators for verification of trend change.

Make sure you apply all the rules of Elliot wave theory and the odds will be stacked on your side (or at least I hope so!).

Good Luck and I hope we ride wave 3 together!