EURUSD Technical Analysis 28.07 - 04.08 : Bullish Continuing after Flat - page 2
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This is Schaff related intra-day trading for EURUSD :
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EURUSD, M15, 2013.07.30
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
135 pips
end of bullish close?
seem to be near the "stop & reverse" primary trend at 1,3216
As to H1 timeframe so this is breakout just started - if the price will cross ichimoku cloud on close bar so it will be bullish on H1:
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EURUSD, H1, 2013.07.31
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
eurusd h1 breakout
but if we see it on H4 and D1 timeframe so it is still ranging :
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EURUSD, H4, 2013.07.31
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
eurusd h4 ranging
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EURUSD, M5, 2013.08.01
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
eurusd +39 pips
Forum
Press review
newdigital, 2013.08.01 15:55
2013-08-01 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - ECB Press Conference]
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Reaction to ECB press conference :
Mario Draghi offered nothing new during his press conference this afternoon. Aside from pointing out the improved sentiment in the euro area - following the rise in the PMIs over the last few months to close or above 50, the level that separates growth from contraction - the statement was essentially a carbon copy of the statement from last month.
Despite efforts to avoid providing clarity on the ECBs forward guidance, Draghi did finally concede that rates will remain low until at least July next year. However, he did caveat this with comments that suggested this date is not set in stone and can be changed. It was essentially a commitment to forward guidance that came with small print that we’re not meant to pay attention to. In other words, the forward guidance offered by the ECB remains pointless, as confirmed by the complete lack of reaction in the markets to these comments.
Draghi also claimed that the ECB did not discuss adding thresholds to the forward guidance, which is hard to believe. It seems ridiculous that one of the most powerful central banks would offer forward guidance, without even discussing potential thresholds, even if the decision to stick with the previous guidance was “unanimous”. If these aren’t even being discussed then the ECB is missing a simple opportunity to put the markets at ease over whether we can expect rate hikes in the medium term.
On the subject of what the ECB isn’t doing, Draghi confirmed that rate cuts weren’t even discussed at the meeting, as they instead focused on forward guidance (which in effect barely exists). Again, it seems very strange that rates weren’t even discussed, despite the fact that they were discussed so much at previous meetings, including the prospect of negative deposit rates. It would appear, future rate cuts are now off the table.
One interesting point that arose was the potential to release minutes of the meetings in the future, similar to what we have in the US and the UK. Draghi claimed the discussions are at an early stage and that the minutes must not risk the members independence, which appears to be very odd at a time when everyone is seeking more transparency. If the ECB has nothing to hide in its meetings, what’s the risk?
This is the real example about how risky to trade news events: price moved to 16 pips up and than to 16 pips down on medium impacted news event:
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EURUSD, M5, 2013.08.02
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
16 up and 16 down for news event
Forum
Press review
newdigital, 2013.08.02 10:31
2013-08-02 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]
If actual < forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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Spain Unemployment Continues To Fall
Spain's unemployment declined for the fifth straight month in July, the Labor Ministry said Friday.
The number of registered unemployed fell sharply by 64,866 or 1.36 percent in July from the prior month. The overall unemployment totaled 4.69 million.
The ministry said registered unemployment among young people under 25 declined by 5.6 percent in the last twelve months.
Unemployment in construction decreased 17,310 and dropped by 11,233 in industry. In services, unemployment declined 37,614 and fell 1,063 in the agriculture sector.
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EURUSD, M5, 2013.08.02
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
87 pips
Forum
Press review
newdigital, 2013.08.02 15:31
2013-08-02 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-farm Payrolls]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops Despite Disappointing Job Growth
Employment in the U.S. increased by less than economists had expected in the month of July, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday, although the unemployment rate still fell to its lowest level in over four years.
The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment increased by 162,000 jobs in July following a downwardly revised increase of 188,000 jobs in June.
Economists had expected employment to increase by about 175,000 jobs compared to the addition of 195,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
Despite the weaker than expected job growth, the unemployment rate dipped to 7.4 percent in July from 7.6 percent in June. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 7.5 percent.
With the bigger than expected decrease, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since hitting 7.3 percent in December of 2008.
Commenting on the impact of the report, Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, said, "While we still lean toward the Fed announcing a tapering of asset purchases in September, we will need to see a good bounce in August employment and in the economic data to get there."
"Although the unemployment rate has moved lower, the recent economic softness will raise doubts among policymakers about whether this progress can be sustained," he added.
The job growth in July reflected the addition of 157,000 jobs in the service-providing sector, although that reflects a slowdown from the increase of 188,000 jobs in June.
While the report showed an acceleration in the pace of job growth in the retail sector, fewer jobs were added in the temporary help services and healthcare and social assistance sectors.
The Labor Department also said averagely hourly employee earnings edged down $0.02 to $23.98 in July after jumping by $0.10 in June. Average hourly earnings are still up by 1.9 percent year-over-year.