EURUSD Technical Analysis 30.06 - 07.07 : Possible Reversal - page 3

 
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Seems - I found the answer - London session was finished (at 2 pm GMT for example), but Sydney and Tokyo sessions were not started yet ... so - no liquidity on the market, and that is why the market is very volatile on this time.

Europe/Berlin - Time Zone Information - Daylight Saving Time (DST) Information
  • www.timezoneconverter.com
Current Date and Time in Europe/Berlin Daylight Saving Time (DST) in effect? Most Recent DST Transition Next Scheduled DST Transition 12:00:00 A.M = MIDNIGHT 12:00:00 P.M. = NOON
 
news are triggered by the movement of price, and not vice versa.

this means that price action changes the 'ecosystem'. it changes relations between all owners of resources around the world. the moment that balance is changed in a way that the 'ecosystem' cannot function, change is initiated and started and this change becomes news.
news by itself has no meaning, because nobody cant control the market, and you don't know how the buyers and sellers are, and how will they react on the news, what psychological state are they in, and how will they interpret the news, when will they hear the news etc. it is completely unpredictable.

news is just a reaction on the change, which causes volatility sometimes. the fundamental change happened before the news came out, you just didn't see it.


reversal of what/why? you mean: the price is continuing the movement being out of the news as the same way as before?
yes, news caused temporary volatility, and after the volatility seized, the sentiment is the same.
 

When I was talking about possible reversal so I was thinking about 'Chinkou Span line crossing historical price', and we got first signal on D1 timeframe (Tenkan/Kijun crossing) - we can see it on the image :


Documentation on MQL5: Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Indicator Constants / Indicators Lines
Documentation on MQL5: Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Indicator Constants / Indicators Lines
  • www.mql5.com
Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Indicator Constants / Indicators Lines - Documentation on MQL5
 

But! if we see on H4 timeframe (intra-day) - we can see the opposite situation :


 
But what the real situation for the next 2 trading days? no idea ... because we will have Non-Farm Payrols on Friday ... I will try to trade this NFP on this Friday ... I traded it (NFP) for few years on live account and I am considering this news event as most significant one for the trades who are using news events for trading.
 

We are going to have the following news event for EUR for today:

2013-07-04 08:00/09:00 GMT | [EUR - Gross Domestic Product]

2013-07-04 11:45 GMT | [EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision]

2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB press conference]

 

2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB press conference] with +78 pips :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M1, 2013.07.04

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd 78 pips

EURUSD, M1, 2013.07.04, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.04 14:46

2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB press conference]

==========

Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 4 July 2013 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET:

  • Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB.
  • Question and answer session. Registered journalists pose questions to Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, and to Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB.

Watch video here : Webcast of the press conference 4 July 2013


ECB: Webcasts: ECB monetary policy decisions
ECB: Webcasts: ECB monetary policy decisions
  • www.ecb.europa.eu
At its first meeting each month the Governing Council of the ECB takes its monetary policy decision for the euro area. Shortly after the meeting, the President of the ECB explains the decision in an introductory statement. This is followed by a question-and-answer session with media...
 

Just to remind that we are going to have the following news event today :

2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-farm Payrolls]

It will be happened at 12:30 GMT, or at 14:30 MQ MT5 time

========

I traded NFP for the long time as the following: place 2 pending orders (by stop and sell stop) 2 or 3 minutes before news release (at 12:27/14/27 for example) with the gap/distance between market price as 25 pips, tp 100 pips, sl 50 and trailing stop 30.

 

This is breakdown on EURUSD D1 and 'not yet breakout' for USDCHF D1.

EURUSD D1 - Chinkou Span line crossed historical price from above to below on close bar, and the price was crossed Ichimoku cloud (kumo). So, the price was reversed to primary bearish as expected :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, D1, 2013.07.05

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd d1 breakdown

EURUSD, D1, 2013.07.05, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


As to USDCHF D1 so it is "not yet" situation : Chinkou Span line crossed historical price from below to above but on open bar only ... so - we need to wait for at least one more trading day (because we are talking about daily timeframe) just to be sure about USDCHF (and EURUSD of course).

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCHF, D1, 2013.07.05

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

usdchf d1 "not yet breakout"

USDCHF, D1, 2013.07.05, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


 

EURUSD NFP for right now :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.05

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

eurusd nfp

EURUSD, M5, 2013.07.05, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo