A Little Survey - On Expectations - page 2
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Attached is an example that meets your stated requirements in the op, but I wouldn't put money into it no-way no-how. Over-optimization is a beautiful thing if you like good looking backtest results.
:) Nice eye-test Phillip, you almost got me with that one. Earlier I wrote:
"I'm not interested in results that trade in one direction for limited time. Like Shorting the EUR/USD this year (I can create a system that don't lose doing that). What I prefer are systems with results over 10 years going in both directions."
The code itself is actually designed to trade both long and short, and is freely allowed to do so at any time, but the fact that the market actions never triggered a long position in GBPUSD is more a testament to its ability to correctly identify winning entry opportunities in a market that is itself decidedly trending.
The exact same code/strategy places buys and sells on USDJPY over the same time period. EURUSD it trades only shorts (not by external requirement) for the past year.
Naturally I can arbitrarily select trade thresholds that are de-optimized which result in long positions being triggered in decidely trending currency pairs...but who would trade a strategy that can't latch onto and syncronize with the underlying fundamentals afoot in the buyer/seller balance?
"but who would trade a strategy that can't latch onto and syncronize with the underlying fundamentals afoot in the buyer/seller balance?"
Well said Phillip.
I translate as -Who would trade a strategy which-cannot-accurately determine the direction-. Sorry, Lolz if thats not what you mean. I'm very simple minded as you can already tell.
"Naturally I can arbitrarily select trade thresholds that are de-optimized which result in long positions being triggered in decidely trending currency pairs"
Good point, I Don't have a problem with those systems that wanna only-short the EUR/USD this year as long as the creators clearly define when the market is gonna change. Example: "I'll use my Short EA when the markets is trending down-ward" and then "I'll use my Long EA when the market is trending up-ward". Now, that's the million dollar ? when is the market gonna change. If I have to answer this myself then why do i need an EA. What I Do have a problem with is looking at chart going down and saying "Look how good my EA is trading on the down period". OK- what direction is it gonna go from today.... "Don't ask me that, I don't have a crystal ball !".
Humm, now that I think about it, If you're saying the system above CAN accurately determine the Trend and Trade it profitability. Then, why do you have a problem with that system? I'm guessing your answer has to do with it Not being able to synchronize with the underlying fundamentals of Buyer/Seller pressures. If that's the case then I have more to learn Sen-Sei. How do I make an EA understand fundamentals. Isn't that why we have Momentum indicators or should I feed it News information. Omg... I'm Confused %:(.