Press review - page 595

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Gold (based on the article)

XAU/USD - "Gold prices are lower for the second consecutive week with the precious metal off by nearly 0.6% to trade at 1320 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Despite the decline, price are poised to close the week well-off the lows after a sharp reversal off support on Thursday. he focus now shifts to key central bank rate decisions next week from the RBA, BoC, BoJ and ECB with the release of the February U.S. Non-Farm Payroll figures (NFP) highlighting the economic docket. For gold, the emphasis will remain on the wage growth numbers next Friday as the inflation outlook remains central focus for the Federal Reserve. As it stands, market participants are factoring three rate hikes this year, (starting with this month) and if the inflation picture improve expectations for higher rates may weigh on demand for gold which does not pay a dividend."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for DAX Index (based on the article)

DAX Index - "There aren’t any ‘high’ impact data events scheduled for release this coming week, but on Thursday the ECB meets. Traders will be keying in on what could be next for the central bank and how the euro responds. Both the single-currency and DAX have been on the decline, so it is unclear how much impact a euro reaction may have."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily ranging near bearish reversal levels (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging near and above Ichimoku cloud on the border with the daily bearish reversal. If the price breaks 1.2154 support to below on the daily close bar so the bearish reversal will be started. 

• "EUR/USD is coming perilously close to carving out a bearish price sequence in the days ahead. We’ve been discussing quite a bit lately the impact of the 2008 trend-line, and as long as the euro stays below it will struggle. The struggle could turn into an outright sell-off if a bounce soon fails."
• "The double-top at the 2008 trend-line put into motion the notion we may be seeing a top form at an important line of resistance. And now with EUR/USD possibly putting in a lower-low from earlier last month, in the days ahead the euro may be ready to turn down from the long-term trend-line for an extended period of time."
• "The trend since last year is still pointed up, but a strong turn down will have important support by way of the 2017 high and trend-line from April come under fire. A solid close below 12100 is seen as a possible catalyst for a sizable unwind by large speculators in the futures market. Positioning has been hovering in record territory for a while and suggests on a turn of trend there will be plenty of fuel to drive the single-currency lower."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and range price movement 

2018-03-05 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Services PMI]

• past data is 54.7
• forecast data is 54.3
• actual data is 54.2 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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From official report :

• "The Caixin China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) signalled a further strong rise in overall Chinese business activity in February, despite the pace of expansion softening since January. At 53.3 in February, the Composite Output Index fell only slightly from a seven-year record of 53.7 at the start of the year."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and range price movement 

2018-03-05 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

• past data is -20.6%
• forecast data is 5.1%
• actual data is 17.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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From official report :

• "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.1% in January after falling for three months."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 17.1% in January."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event 

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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Interest Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-03-06 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From official report :

• "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
• "The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Interest Rate news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - testing 11,686 for the daily bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is testing 11,686 resistance level to be reversed for the primary bullish market condition.

• "Bitcoin transaction fees is cheaper now, as three of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges have slashed their withdrawal fees rates by up to half. Binance, Bitfinex, and Kraken have enabled SegWit (Segregated Witness), a process to increase block size limit, and capacity to add more transactions. Transaction batching is another method being adopted to help them significantly reduce bitcoin transaction fees and relieve congestion on the bitcoin blockchain network."
• "Kraken reduced withdrawal fees on Bitcoin to 0.0005, and on Bitcoin Cash to 0.0001. Binance also announced a 50 percent reduction in Bitcoin withdrawal fees, to 0.0005 BTC, or around $5.70 at current prices. Bitfinex slashed a third off its fees, which now stands at 0.0004. These exchanges reduced their fees amid reports that Bitcoin's transaction volume hit a two year low of 180,000. Exchanges have seen new lows in trade volume as the transaction fee went as high as $10 which was unacceptable among a large section of customers."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - daily bearish (based on the article)

Daily price is on strong bearish trend located far below Ichimoku cloud.
- if the price breaks 105.54/105.24 support level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing;
- if the price breaks high last weekly bar at 107.67 to above so the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started.

• "USD/JPY has now fallen to levels not seen since late 2016 before Dollar’s ‘Trump trade’ bounce, which came as markets got used to the shock election of the current US President. Moreover, there are few obvious signs that a turnaround is in sight."
• "The pair is certainly lower now that it was then, but it seems to be making a moderate attempt to base around the 105.40 area which has held for the past four days or so. As you can see from the chart below this area is closer to the channel’s top than it is to its base."
• "Should these levels continue to hold then US Dollar bulls might fancy the chances of a foray towards than channel top. However, that’s still almost a full Yen above current levels and it’s hard to see where that sort of momentum will come from on current showing. There’s also likely to be a degree of fundamental caution this week thanks to the wait for Friday when official US payroll data will be released."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-03-08 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

• past data is 0.00%
• forecast data is 0.00%
• actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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From official report :

• "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate Statement news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin: daily bearish trend to be resumed. (based on the article)

Daily price is breaking support level at 8,956 to below for the daily bearish trend to be resumed.

• "New Jersey has issued a cease-and-desist order to an initial coin offering (ICO) by cryptocurrency investment company Bitcoiin. In an order issued on Wednesday, the New Jersey Bureau of Securities alleged that Bitcoiin is selling unregistered securities to investors of the US state. Bitcoiin is engaging in fraud in connection with the offer for sale of securities, the cease-and-desist order says."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5