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German manufacturing PMI rises unexpectedly
In a report, Markit Economics said that German manufacturing PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.7, from 52.5 in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected German manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 52.5 last month.
Forex - EUR/USD falls to session lows after euro zone data
Investing.com - The euro fell to session lows against the dollar on Monday after euro zone manufacturing data indicated that the economic recovery in the region remains weak.
EUR/USD slid 0.335 to 1.3544, the lowest since November 26, from 1.3590 on Friday.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3400 and resistance at 1.3615, the session high.
Revised data on Monday showed that the bloc’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to a two year high of 51.6 last month from October's 51.3, slightly higher than a preliminary estimate of 51.5.
The report said rising levels of production and fuller order books
failed to alter the trend in employment, with job cuts reported for the twenty-second straight month.
Meanwhile, Spain’s manufacturing sector contracted for the first time since July last month, while the French manufacturing sector contracted for the 21st straight month.
The Spanish PMI fell to 48.6 from 50.9 in October, led lower by weaker orders and output.
The French index fell to 48.4 from 49.1 in October, the lowest level since June.
Elsewhere, the euro dropped to the lowest since January against sterling, with EUR/GBP down 0.465 to 0.8261.
The pound strengthened after data showed that activity in the U.K. manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest rate in 33 months in November.
The U.K. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 58.4, the highest level since February 2011, from an upwardly revised 56.5 in October.
Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to tick down to 56.0.
The new orders component of the index jumped to 64.6, the highest in almost 20 years, from 61.3 in October.
Also Monday, the final reading of China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 for November, slightly above forecasts for 50.5, and beating the flash estimate of 50.4. The index was down slightly from October’s final reading of 50.9.
U.S. stocks open mixed ahead of ISM data; Dow Jones down 0.26%
Investing.com - U.S. stocks opened mixed on Monday, as markets were eyeing the release of upcoming U.S. economic data, while expectations for the Federal Reserve to soon begin tapering its stimulus program persisted.
During early U.S. trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.26%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.16%, while the Nasdaq Composite index inched up 0.05%.
Equity markets were jittery amid speculation that the Federal Reserve could start to unwind its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program before the end of the year.
Investors were looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November, for indications on the timing of a possible reduction in Fed stimulus.
Sentiment improved earlier, after a report showed that China’s final HSBC PMI inched up to 50.8 in November, up from a preliminary reading 50.4 and above expectations for a reading of 50.5.
The data was published one day after a government report showed that China’s manufacturing PMI held steady at an 18-month high of 51.4 in November, compared to forecasts for a decline to 51.1.
Among retailers, Wal-Mart shares edged up 0.10% and Best Buy added 0.25%, even as the first spending decline on a Black Friday weekend since 2009 reinforced projections for a lackluster holiday.
Amazon.com and Ebay surged 1.79% and 2.47% respectively after researcher ComScore reported online spending on Black Friday gained 15% to a record USD1.2 billion.
Separately, Amazon was said to be testing drones to deliver goods in a move to improve efficiency and speed in getting products to consumers.
Elsewhere, U.S.-traded BP shares added 0.23% as the Financial Times reported that the oil giant expects a surge in compensation payments for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster, after a near-two month slowdown.
In the tech sector, Apple rallied 1.85%, still supported by last week's reports that the company sold three of every four smartphones in Japan in October after the country’s largest carrier, NTT Docomo, began carrying the iPhone. Apple won 76% of Japanese smartphone sales in October.
Across the Atlantic, European stock markets were mixed to lower. The EURO STOXX 50 shed 0.39%, France’s CAC 40 slid 0.34%, Germany's DAX inched down 0.02%, while Britain's FTSE 100 retreated 0.77%.
During the Asian trading session, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed 0.66%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index eased 0.04%.
Gold futures down more than 1% ahead of US ISM Data
Investing.com - Gold prices lost more than 1% on Monday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day to gauge the strength of the economy and the need for stimulus.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,236.70 a troy ounce during U.S. morning trade, down 1.1%.
Comex gold prices fell by as much as 1.4% earlier to hit a daily low of USD1,233.20 a troy ounce, the lowest since November 25.
The February contract settled 1.01% higher on Friday to end at USD1,250.40 a troy ounce.
Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,226.40 a troy ounce, the low from November 25 and resistance at USD1,254.50, the high from November 29.
The Institute of Supply Management was to release its manufacturing PMI later in the day. Market players are also focusing on Thursday’s third quarter gross domestic product report as well as Friday’s November nonfarm payrolls report.
The Federal Reserve, which holds its next meeting on December 17-18, has said the timing of its tapering depends on the health of the labor and housing markets.
Prices of the precious metal lost 5.4% in November, the biggest monthly decline since June, after minutes of the Fed’s October meeting said the central bank could start scaling back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.
Gold is down approximately 26% this year, heading for the first annual loss in 13 years.
Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for March delivery tumbled 1.6% to trade at USD19.71 a troy ounce, while copper for March delivery inched down 0.2% to trade at USD3.199 a pound.
Copper futures edged lower as investors digesting a mixed round of manufacturing data from the euro zone and China.
China and the euro zone are major global copper consumers and manufacturing numbers are often used as indicators for future copper demand growth.
Oil futures extend gains after upbeat U.S. ISM factory data
Investing.com - Crude oil futures were higher on Monday, after data showed that manufacturing activity in the U.S. expanded at the fastest rate since May 2010 in November.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD93.63 a barrel during U.S. morning trade, up 1%.
New York-traded oil futures held in a range between USD92.57 a barrel, the daily low and a session high of USD93.68 a barrel.
The January contract settled up 0.46% on Friday to end at USD92.72 a barrel.
Oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.77 a barrel, the low from November 27 and resistance at USD93.90 a barrel, the high from November 29.
Oil prices climbed to the highest levels of the session after the Institute for Supply Management said its index of purchasing managers rose to a 31-month high of 57.3 in November from a reading of 56.4 in October.
Analysts had expected the ISM index of purchasing managers to inch down to 55.0 last month.
A separate report showed that U.S. manufacturing activity rose to a 10-month high of 54.7 in November, up from a preliminary reading of 54.3 and compared to 51.8 in September.
Investors now looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the week to further gauge the strength of the economy and the need for stimulus.
The U.S. is to release data on third quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, while November’s nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday.
The Federal Reserve, which holds its next meeting on December 17-18, has said the timing of its tapering depends on the health of the labor and housing markets.
The U.S. central bank’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.
Elsewhere, in the euro zone, data showed that the bloc’s manufacturing PMI rose to a two-year high of 51.6 last month from October's 51.3, slightly higher than a preliminary estimate of 51.5.
However, Spain’s manufacturing sector contracted for the first time since July last month, while the French manufacturing sector contracted for the 21st straight month.
Meanwhile, in China, data showed that the country’s final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index came in at 50.8 for November, slightly above forecasts for 50.5, and beating the flash estimate of 50.4, but was still slightly lower than October's final reading of 50.9.
The data was published one day after a government report showed that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers' index held steady at an 18-month high of 51.4 in November, compared to forecasts for a decline to 51.1.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for January delivery rose 0.5% to trade at USD110.23 a barrel. The spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at USD16.60 a barrel.
London-traded Brent futures remained supported amid ongoing concerns over a disruption to supplies from Libya.
Market players looked ahead to a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna later this week. OPEC is forecast to keep its supply target unchanged at 30 million a day on December 4.
Forex - GBP/USD slips but remains near 27-month highs
Investing.com - The pound slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday, after upbeat U.S. data but still remained within close range of 27-month highs as data showed that activity in the U.K. manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest rate in 33 months in November.
GBP/USD hit 1.6343 during U.S. morning trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6354, down 0.11%.
Cable was likely to find support at 1.6278, the low from November 28 and resistance at 1.6450.
In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management said its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 57.3 in November from 56.4 in October, expanding at the fastest rate since April 2011. Analysts had expected the index to fall to 55.0.
The report said both production and new orders rose by around 3 points to 62.8 and 63.6 respectively. The employment component of the index indicated some improvement in the labor market in November, rising by more than 3 points to 56.5.
The pound strengthened earlier, after data showed that the U.K. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 58.4 last month, the highest level since February 2011, from an upwardly revised 56.5 in October.
Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to tick down to 56.0.
The new orders component of the index jumped to 64.6, the highest in almost 20 years, from 61.3 in October.
“The sector is on course to beat the 0.9% increase in output seen in the third quarter, with the quarterly pace of growth so far in the final quarter tracking comfortably above the 1.0% mark,” Rob Dobson, senior economist at survey compiler Markit, said.
Sterling was higher against the euro with EUR/GBP shedding 0.22%, to hit 0.8282.
In the euro zone, data on Monday showed that the bloc’s manufacturing PMI rose to a two year high of 51.6 last month from October's 51.3, slightly higher than a preliminary estimate of 51.5.
However, Spain’s manufacturing sector contracted for the first time since July last month, while the French manufacturing sector contracted for the 21st straight month.
The Spanish PMI fell to 48.6 from 50.9 in October, led lower by weaker orders and output.
The French index fell to 48.4 from 49.1 in October, the lowest level since June.
2013-12-02 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Jumps In November
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in November for the sixth consecutive month as the overall economy continued to grow, the Institute of Supply Management reported Monday.
The ISM's purchasing managers index registered 57.3 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from October's reading of 56.4 percent. It was the highest reading since November 2011.
Economists forecast a fall to 55.0. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The ISM's New Orders Index increased in November by 3 percentage points to 63.6 percent, and the Production Index increased by 2 percentage points to 62.8 percent.
U.S Data could skew December Taper Positions
Key Data
However there is no consistency once again in the dollar’s performance even though U.S. yields have moved higher and the ISM manufacturing index surprised to the upside. This should change, as the week progress because key data such as the non-manufacturing ISM and U.S. labor market reports will shape expectations for tapering and dominate trading. Don’t forget that investors are still divided on when the Federal Reserve will taper (December or March) and this week’s economic reports are important enough that they can alter expectations, starting with this morning’s ISM manufacturing index. Despite weaker manufacturing activity in the NY, Philadelphia and Chicago regions, manufacturing production accelerated across the nation with the ISM index rising to 57.3 from 56.4. This was the strongest pace of growth since April 2011 and the rise in orders in particular is very positive for the U.S. recovery. If we continue to get these upside surprises in U.S. data this week, investors will skew their positions for December tapering, leading to further gains in the dollar.
We have 7 central bank monetary policy meetings on the calendar, the nonfarm payrolls report, the Beige Book and speeches by a number of U.S. policymakers. The Reserve Bank of Australia, National Bank of Poland, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Norges Bank and Banxico (Mexico) are all expected to leave monetary policy unchanged but the accompanying statements and press conferences could still trigger big moves in the respective currencies. If the RBA or the ECB suggests that additional stimulus is possible,EUR/USD could drop below 1.35 and AUD/USD could test 90 cents.
Watch For Slowed Jobs Growth
With the U.S. government reopening in November, this month’s NFP report was expected to show a snapback in job growth. However last month’s 204k rise in payrolls exceeded the expectations of the most optimistic economist and because of that they are now looking for job growth to slow in November. If they are wrong and payrolls rise by more than 200k (190k would even do the trick), the unexpected strength of the labor market will prompt traders to readjust their positions for sooner rather than later tapering and this would be positive for the dollar. In fact, an upside surprise in nonfarm payrolls report could be just whatUSD/JPY needs to break its 4-year high of 103.74 but the breakout could occur sooner if the leading indicators for NFPs also point to a stronger number.
Dollar rises above 103 level against Yen
During U.S. morning trade, USD/JPY rose to session highs of 103.05, the loftiest level since May 23 and was last up 0.47% to 102.92.
The yen remained under pressure on the view that the Bank of Japan will step up stimulus measures in order to meet its target of 2% inflation by 2015.
Earlier Monday, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledged to counter any new downside risks to the bank’s inflation goal, saying the BoJ would act by "adjusting monetary policy without hesitation."
In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management said Monday that manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest rate since April 2011 in November, fuelling optimism over the economic recovery.
The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 57.3 in November from 56.4 in October. Analysts had expected the index to fall to 55.0.
Elsewhere, EUR/USD was down 0.26% to 1.3554 from 1.3590 on Friday.
In the euro zone, data on Monday showed that the bloc’s manufacturing PMI rose to a two year high of 51.6 last month from October's 51.3, slightly higher than a preliminary estimate of 51.5.
However, Spain’s manufacturing sector contracted for the first time since July last month, while the French manufacturing sector contracted for the 21st straight month.
The pound pulled back from 27-month highs against the dollar, withGBP/USD dipping 0.02% to 1.6367, off session highs of 1.6442.
Demand for sterling continued to be underpinned after data showed that activity in the U.K. manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest rate in 33 months in November.
The U.K. manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4, the highest level since February 2011, from an upwardly revised 56.5 in October. Analysts had expected a decline to 56.0.
The dollar pushed higher against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.15% to 0.9075.
The greenback was mixed against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, with AUD/USD edging up 0.04% to 0.9111, NZD/USDadvancing 0.74% to 0.8192 and USD/CAD up 0.27% to 1.0642.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.21% to 80.85.
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Press review
angevoyageur, 2013.06.04 14:08
This link provided to me by RaptorUK, give me the idea that it would be interesting to have a place here on the site to share such links. So I opened a new topic, it will be moderated to follow the rules as usual, but also about the content.