Press review - page 53
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: December 2 - 6
EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3591, slightly below session highs of 1.3622. For the week, the pair gained 0.42%.
The pair is likely to find support at 1.3556, Wednesday’s low and near-term resistance at 1.3645.
Eurostat said the annual rate of consumer inflation accelerated to 0.9% in November, after slumping to a four year low of 0.7% in October. Economists had forecast an annual increase of 0.8%.
The slowdown in euro area inflation in October prompted the European Central Bank to cut rates to a record low 0.25% at its meeting in November.
Another report showed that the euro zone unemployment rate fell to 12.1% in October, down from 12.2% in September, the first fall since February 2011. However, the youth unemployment rate in the region rose to record high of 24.4% in October.
The euro rose to almost five year highs against the yen, with EUR/JPYending Friday’s session at 139.21, the highest level since June 2009. For the week, the pair gained 1.46%.
The yen remained under heavy selling pressure amid heightened expectations that the Bank of Japan will implement further stimulus measures in order to meet its target of 2% inflation by 2015.
On Wednesday, BoJ board member Sayuri Shirai raised doubts over whether the inflation target can be met because of downside risks to growth, adding that the bank was open to taking further steps if growth slows.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to scale back its stimulus program at one of its next few meetings.
Meanwhile, the outcome of Thursday's ECB policy meeting will also be in focus.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
The euro zone is to release revised data on its manufacturing PMI, while Spain and Italy are also to release individual reports.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington. Later Monday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.
Tuesday, December 3
In the euro zone, Spain is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed.
Wednesday, December 4
The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, while Spain and Italy are to publish their services PMI’s.
The U.S. is to publish a revised estimate of third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. Meanwhile, the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish data on factory orders.
Thursday, December 5
The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
The U.S. is to publish a revised estimate of third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. Meanwhile, the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish data on factory orders.
Friday, December 6
Germany is to release data on factory orders.
The University of Michigan is to release the preliminary reading of its consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
AUD/USD gains after slew of data, yen stronger despite Q3 capex
AUD/USD traded at 0.9134, up 0.26%, after a busy round of data releases that overall showed the scope for a rate cut from a record low 2.5% at Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia review was unlikely.
The performance of manufacturing index, or Australian PMI, slipped back into the contraction zone and back to levels seen before the September federal elections to 47.7. down 5.4 points, according to AI Group.
"While the current downward pressures on the (Australian) dollar are positive for the industry, the currency remains stubbornly high. The dollar and fierce import competition continue to take their toll, as many businesses struggle to maintain market share in an environment of generally weak demand for local goods and equipment. Export markets also remain tough under the influence of the relatively high dollar with the exports sub-index dropping under 30 points again this month," said AI Group's chief executive Innes Willox.
TD-MI data showed month-on-month inflation in Australia accelerated 0.2% in November, taking annual inflation closer to the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% to 3% target band.
TD Securities head of Asia-Pacific Research Annette Beacher said while inflation is expected to remain within the bottom half of the RBA band until mid-2014.
"We expect all forthcoming RBA communiques and speeches to continue talking down the AUD rather than hint at rate cuts. We are of the view that rising house price inflation and the recent spark in credit growth prevents entertaining another cash rate cut."
In official data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said the number of dwelling units approved in Australia fell less than expected in October at -1.8%, compared to a forecast of -5.0%, signaling tentatively that housing construction has the potential to pick up the slack in the economy as resources investment wanes.
ABS also said that business inventories in Australia fell more than expected in the third quarter to -0.5%, compared to a forecast of -0.1%, following an upward revision in second quarter led by wholesale trade and manufacturing, which offset gains in retail and mining.
USD/JPY traded at 102.28, down 0.18%, giving up early weakness even as data on company capital spending plans came in weaker than expected.
Planned capital spending by non-financial Japanese companies rose 1.5% in the third quarter, compared to a forecast of 3.1%, according to a ministry of finance survey, highlighting uncertainty over how soon overseas demand, particularly emerging markets, will pick up and how quickly domestic demand will rebound after a sales tax hike in April.
EUR/USD traded at 1.3602, up 0.08%, on Monday. Data showed that annual rate of inflation in the euro zone rose more-than-expected in November, easing concerns over further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
Eurostat said the annual rate of consumer inflation rose by 0.9% in November, recovering from a four year low of 0.7% in October. Economists had forecast an annual increase of 0.8%.
The euro ended the week 1.46% higher against the broadly weaker yen, with EUR/JPY settling at 139.21, the highest level since June 2009.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to scale back its stimulus program at one of its next few meetings.
Meanwhile, rate decisions by the ECB, the BoE, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will also be in focus.
On Monday, China is to release the final reading of its closely watched HSBC manufacturing PMI and the euro zone reports revised data on its manufacturing PMI, while Spain and Italy are also to release individual reports.
Switzerland is to publish the results of its SVME manufacturing PMI, and the U.K. is to release its manufacturing PMI.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington. Later Monday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.
The U..S. dollar index, a weighted basket of currencies, traded at 80.57, down 0.14%.
God prices down in early Asian trade as investors await US jobs data
Investing.com - Gold prices fell in Asia on Monday in thin trade as investors await key jobs data due out in the United States this week to gain a better handle on prospects for the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus program.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at 1,247.70 a troy ounce, down 0.22%.
Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,226.40 a troy ounce, the low from Nov. 25 and resistance at USD1,258.20, the high from Nov. 26.
Last week, Comex gold prices added 0.5%, amid indications of increased demand from China and as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations after prices tumbled to a four-and-a-half-month low earlier in the week.
Bearish sentiment on the precious metal remained intact after minutes of the Fed’s October meeting said the central bank could start scaling back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November. The Fed, which holds its next meeting on Dec. 17-18, has said the timing of its tapering depends on the health of the labor and housing markets.
Prices of the precious metal are down approximately 26% this year, heading for the first annual loss in 13 years.
Copper for March delivery traded at 3.210 a pound in the Asian time zone, up 0.14%, on expectations of increased demand from top consumer China.
Data released on Sunday showed that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers' index held steady at an 18-month high of 51.4 in November, compared to forecasts for a decline to 51.1.
Copper traders often use manufacturing numbers as indicators for future copper demand growth, as the industrial metal is widely used by the sector.
China accounted for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
HSBC China Nov final manufacturing PMI beats forecast, but dips from Oct
Investing.com - Chinese manufacturing PMI from HSBC showed a final reading of 50.8 in November in figures reported Monday, besting the forecast of 50.5, and beating the flash estimate of 50.4, though below October's final of 50.9.
"China's manufacturing sector kept relatively steady growth momentum in November, as the final manufacturing PMI was revised up from the flash reading on the back of faster new business gains. However, the renewed contraction of employment and the slower pace of restocking activities call for a continuation of accommodative policy. The modest inflationary pressures leave room to do so," said HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin.
HSBC said output and total new orders increased at the fastest pace for eight months and when placed against the CFLP business survey at the weekend, both suggest manufacturing is continuing to expand at a moderate pace.
Data released on Sunday showed that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers' index held steady at an 18-month high of 51.4 in November, compared to forecasts for a decline to 51.1.
Analysts expect next year's growth target to be trimmed to 7% from 7.5% this year.
Bank of Japan's Kuroda pledges action if economic downside risks emerge
Investing.com - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledged to counter any new downside risks to the goal of sustained annual inflation of 2% by 2015, according to remarks Monday made in a speech to business leaders in Nagoya, Japan.
Kuroda said the BoJ would act by "adjusting monetary policy without hesitation."
The remarks come after comments last week by a board member that the BoJ should not underestimate the downside risks to economic growth even as a weaker yen and higher share prices have boosted sentiment.
Forex - AUD/USD gains after slew of data, Yen stronger despite Q3 capex
Investing.com - The Australian dollar gained after a slew of data that left the general consensus intact of steady monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia this week and the Japanese yen gained strength despite weaker than forecast third quarter capex data.
AUD/USD traded at 0.9134, up 0.26%, after a busy round of data releases that overall showed the scope for a rate cut from a record low 2.5% at Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia review was unlikely.
The performance of manufacturing index, or Australian PMI, slipped back into the contraction zone and back to levels seen before the September federal elections to 47.7. down 5.4 points, according to AI Group.
"While the current downward pressures on the (Australian) dollar are positive for the industry, the currency remains stubbornly high. The dollar and fierce import competition continue to take their toll, as many businesses struggle to maintain market share in an environment of generally weak demand for local goods and equipment. Export markets also remain tough under the influence of the relatively high dollar with the exports sub-index dropping under 30 points again this month," said AI Group's chief executive Innes Willox.
TD-MI data showed month-on-month inflation in Australia accelerated 0.2% in November, taking annual inflation closer to the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% to 3% target band.
TD Securities head of Asia-Pacific Research Annette Beacher said while inflation is expected to remain within the bottom half of the RBA band until mid-2014.
"We expect all forthcoming RBA communiques and speeches to continue talking down the AUD rather than hint at rate cuts. We are of the view that rising house price inflation and the recent spark in credit growth prevents entertaining another cash rate cut."
In official data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said the number of dwelling units approved in Australia fell less than expected in October at -1.8%, compared to a forecast of -5.0%, signaling tentatively that housing construction has the potential to pick up the slack in the economy as resources investment wanes.
ABS also said that business inventories in Australia fell more than expected in the third quarter to -0.5%, compared to a forecast of -0.1%, following an upward revision in second quarter led by wholesale trade and manufacturing, which offset gains in retail and mining.
USD/JPY traded at 102.28, down 0.18%, giving up early weakness even as data on company capital spending plans came in weaker than expected.
Planned capital spending by non-financial Japanese companies rose 1.5% in the third quarter, compared to a forecast of 3.1%, according to a ministry of finance survey, highlighting uncertainty over how soon overseas demand, particularly emerging markets, will pick up and how quickly domestic demand will rebound after a sales tax hike in April.
EUR/USD traded at 1.3602, up 0.08%, on Monday. Data showed that annual rate of inflation in the euro zone rose more-than-expected in November, easing concerns over further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
Eurostat said the annual rate of consumer inflation rose by 0.9% in November, recovering from a four year low of 0.7% in October. Economists had forecast an annual increase of 0.8%.
The euro ended the week 1.46% higher against the broadly weaker yen, with EUR/JPY settling at 139.21, the highest level since June 2009.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to scale back its stimulus program at one of its next few meetings.
Meanwhile, rate decisions by the ECB, the BoE, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will also be in focus.
On Monday, China is to release the final reading of its closely watched HSBC manufacturing PMI and the euro zone reports revised data on its manufacturing PMI, while Spain and Italy are also to release individual reports.
Switzerland is to publish the results of its SVME manufacturing PMI, and the U.K. is to release its manufacturing PMI.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington. Later Monday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.
The U..S. dollar index, a weighted basket of currencies, traded at 80.57, down 0.14%.
2013-12-01 21:45 GMT (or 22:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Overseas Trade Index]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
==========
New Zealand Terms Of Trade Spike 7.5% In Q3
New Zealand's terms of trade surged 7.5 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday.
The headline figure was sharply higher than forecasts for an increase of 2.9 percent following the 4.9 percent jump in the second quarter.
The price of exported goods climbed 8.9 percent on quarter, while seasonally adjusted export prices dipped 2.1 percent. Both were strongly affected by prices of dairy products, the bureau noted.
Forex - NZD/USD climbs as China PMI supports
Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar climbed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, as the release of upbeat Chinese manufacturing data lent support to export-related currencies.
NZD/USD hit 0.8224 during late Asian trade, the pair's highest since November 26; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8210, rallying 0.95%.The pair was likely to find support at 0.8116, the low of November 27 and a two-month low and resistance at 0.8302, the high of November 13.
A report earlier showed that China’s final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index inched up to 50.8 in November, up from a preliminary reading 50.4 and above expectations for a reading of 50.5.
The data was published one day after a government report showed that China’s manufacturing PMI held steady at an 18-month high of 51.4 in November, compared to forecasts for a decline to 51.1.
China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.
The kiwi was higher against the Australian dollar with AUD/NZD declining 0.44%, to hit 1.1149.
Also Monday, official data showed that building approvals in Australia declined 1.8% in October, less than the expected 5% drop, after an upwardly revised 16.9% increase the previous month.
A separate report showed that company operating profits in Australia rose 3.9% in the third quarter, beating expectations for a 1% increase, after an uwardly revised 0.4% rise in the three months to June.
Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was to speak at an event in Washington, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.
Forex - AUD/USD rises on China, Australia data
Investing.com - The Australian dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, boosted by strong manufacturing data out of China and positive Australian economic reports.
AUD/USD hit 0.9168 during late Asian trade, the pair's highest since November 26; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9166, climbing 0.61%The pair was likely to find support at 0.9056, the low of November 29 and a two-month low and resistance at 0.9250, the high of November 22.
A report earlier showed that China’s final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index inched up to 50.8 in November, up from a preliminary reading 50.4 and above expectations for a reading of 50.5.
The data was published one day after a government report showed that China’s manufacturing PMI held steady at an 18-month high of 51.4 in November, compared to forecasts for a decline to 51.1.
China is Australia's biggest export partner.
In Australia, official data showed that building approvals declined 1.8% in October, less than the expected 5% drop, after an upwardly revised 16.9% increase the previous month.
A separate report showed that company operating profits in Australia rose 3.9% in the third quarter, beating expectations for a 1% increase, after an uwardly revised 0.4% rise in the three months to June.
The Aussie was higher against the euro with EUR/AUD retreating 0.52%, to hit 1.4844.
Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was to speak at an event in Washington, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.
U.K. manufacturing PMI rises to 33-month high of 58.4 in November
In a report, market research group Markit said that its U.K. manufacturing PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 58.4 in November from a reading of 56.5 in October.
Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to ease down to 56.0 last month.
On the index, a reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
Commenting on the report, Rob Dobson, senior economist at survey compiler Markit, said, “The sector is on course to beat the 0.9% increase in output seen in the third quarter, with the quarterly pace of growth so far in the final quarter tracking comfortably above the 1.0% mark.”
Following the release of the data, the pound added to gains against the U.S. dollar, with GBP/USD rising 0.27% to trade at 1.6415, compared to 1.6387 ahead of the data.
Meanwhile, European stock markets remained mixed. The EURO STOXX 50 fell 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 dipped 0.1%, Germany's DAX tacked on 0.2%, while London’s FTSE 100 dipped 0.3%.