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2013-07-15 12:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Speaks]
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From POLITICO Morning Money :
Featuring: Join POLITICO’s Chief Economic Correspondent Ben White, as he takes his daily newsletter Morning Money live interviewing Federal Reserve Board Member, Daniel K. Tarullo, to discuss the current state of Dodd-Frank implementation, regulatory requirements for the nation’s largest banks and more.
When: Monday, July 15, 2013 at 08:00 am ET
Where: The Newseum
LIVE now - watch this event here
2013-07-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Retail Sales Rise Much Less Than Expected In June :
Retail sales in the U.S. rose by much less than anticipated in the month of June, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday.
The report said retail sales increased by 0.4 percent in June compared to a downwardly revised 0.5 percent increase in May.
Economists had been expecting retail sales to jump by 0.8 percent compared to the 0.6 percent growth originally reported for the previous month.
Excluding a notable increase in auto sales, retail sales came in unchanged in June versus economist estimates for a 0.5 percent increase.
Technical Trading: Gold Bulls Eye $1,300, 'Green Light' Level For Another Rally Leg :
While gold prices firmed overnight in Asia and European action, pre-New York trading has seen August Comex gold futures erase gains and push to slightly weaker levels, on the heels of a stronger U.S. dollar index.
August gold futures have posted a solid near term rally in recent days, climbing from the June 28 low at $1,179.40 to $1,297.20 on Thursday. The minor uptrend pattern is bullish.
But, for now, the bulls are being turned away by a stiff psychological resistance ceiling at $1,300—and that will remain the key near term zone for traders to monitor.
So-called "round-numbers" like $1,300 often act as both magnets for price action and also resistance. Also, the contract marked out minor congestive resistance on June 21 and 24, with daily highs right around $1,300.
Gold traders take note—this is the make-or-break level for gold over the next few days.
Additionally, gold may be forming another "triangle" or consolidation pattern on the daily chart. Recently, gold has a propensity for triangles. A large one formed during the April-June period, which presaged the latest down-leg. Triangles are generally continuation patterns (meaning the previous trend will continue upon a breakout), but sometimes they can act as tops or bottoms as well.
In this case, traders should monitor triangle trendline resistance and triangle trendline support, seen on Figure 1 below. An upside breakout would be bullish, while a downside breakout would mean a continuation of the primary bear trend. The time period on this triangle is fairly short as the apex is approaching.
Very short-term, the August gold contract has edged just above its declining 20-day moving average, which has largely limited upside for months. That level comes in at $1,272.30 on Monday. If August gold were able to achieve several consecutive settlements above its 20-day moving average, then that would be an important bullish signal near term.
Bottom line? The key triggers for the bulls include sustained gains above $1,300 and sustained gains above the 20-day moving average. If that occurs early this week—gold bulls have the green light for another near term rally leg.
Finally, daily momentum, as measured by the nine-day relative strength index (customize setting to nine-period for less whipsaw), may be petering out. While it is an unconventional use of trendlines, sophisticated technical traders sometimes draw trendlines on momentum. The 53%-55% level has acted as a ceiling for momentum in recent months and has presages market declines. If that level holds firm again another dip in gold prices is likely. On the flip side, if the nine-day RSI can bust through the 55%-60% level that would prove to be a bullish momentum breakout as well.
On a different note, open interest data reveals that the "roll" from the August Comex gold futures contract to the December contract is on-going. Open interest simply represents the amount of total "open" or outstanding contracts in any given month. As of July 11, CME Group said open interest for August gold stood at 174,730, which was a decline of 11,773 contracts. The largest increase in open interest went to the December gold contract, which currently has 133,114 open interest and saw a rise of 10,614. The
Comex gold futures contract has a physical settlement. Traders who are currently holding an August gold futures position and don't want to liquidate via physical settlement will need to consider a "rollover" plan over the next several days to weeks if the goal is to stay invested.
As always, watch the charts and trade "what you see" not what you think. The gold market will show you where it wants to go near term and these simple technical tools can aid in confirmation.
We are going to have few high impacted news event for GBP today so this is the information about
2013-07-16 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Consumer Price Index (CPI)]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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GBP/USD - Trading the U.K. Consumer Price Report :
Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
The headline reading for U.K. inflation is expected to increase an annualized 3.0% in June, which would mark the fastest pace of growth since April 2012, and the uptick in price growth may prop up the British Pound as it dampens the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to expand the balance sheet further. Indeed, it seems as though the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee is slowly moving away from the easing cycle as they see a slow but sustainable recovery in Britain, and we may see the central bank continue to operate under its inflation-targeting framework as price growth is expected to hold above the 2% target over the policy horizont
How To Trade This Event Risk
Forecasts for a faster rate of inflation instills a bullish outlook for the sterling, and a positive development may pave the way for a long British Pound trade as it dampens the scope for more QE. Therefore, if price growth expands an annualized 3.0% or greater in June, we will need to see a green, five-minute candle following the release to establish a long entry on two-lots of GBPUSD. Once these conditions are fulfilled, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first objective. The second target will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade hits its mark in order to preserve our profits.
On the other hand, the easing input costs along with the persistent slack in the real economy may drag on inflation, and a weak CPI print may spark a sharp selloff ahead of the BoE Minutes as it renews bets for further monetary support. As a result, if the headline reading for inflation falls short of market expectations, we will carry out the same strategy for a short pound-dollar trade as the long position laid out above, just in the opposite direction.
Impact that the U.K. Consumer Price report has had on GBP during the last month :
(1 hour post event)
(End of Day post event)
This is CPI day today - We had CPI for NZD, we will hace CPI for GBP and we will have CPI for USD. So, Happy CPI Day!
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2013-07-15 22:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
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New Zealand CPI Rises 0.7% On Year In Q2 :
Consumer prices in New Zealand gained 0.7 percent on year in the second quarter of 2013, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - touching a 14-year low.
The headline figure missed forecasts for an increase of 0.8 percent and eased from the 0.9 percent gain in the previous quarter.
"This annual increase is the lowest since 1999, and the fourth annual increase in a row below 1 percent," prices manager Chris Pike said.
Moving higher were prices for cigarettes and tobacco (up 12 percent), reflecting a rise in excise duty. Housing rentals (up 2.1 percent) and purchase of newly built houses (up 4.1 percent) were influenced by price rises in the South Island, particularly Canterbury, the bureau said. Electricity (up 3.4 percent) and local authority rates (4.3 percent) also increased in the year to the June 2013 quarter.
These increases were partly offset by decreases for petrol (down 2.8 percent), telecommunication services (down 4.9 percent), domestic air fares (down 12 percent), and audio-visual equipment (down 14 percent).
On a quarterly basis, consumer prices were up 0.2 percent versus forecasts for 0.3 percent after showing 0.4 percent in the first quarter.
"There were increases in electricity and housing-related prices, countered by lower petrol and motor car prices," Pike said.
In the quarter, electricity prices rose 2.6 percent. Vegetable prices (up 7.0 percent) were influenced by seasonal price rises for tomatoes and lettuce. The purchase of newly built houses (up 1.7 percent) and housing rentals (up 0.4 percent) were influenced by rises in both the North and South islands, the bureau said.
The strongest of these housing-related price rises were in Canterbury, with purchase of newly built houses up 2.9 percent and housing rentals up 1.1 percent. Dwelling insurance (up 9.9 percent) also rose.
Countering these rises, petrol prices fell 2.5 percent in the quarter, and were at their lowest level since the September 2011 quarter. Fruit prices fell 4.5 percent, influenced by seasonally lower prices for apples and kiwifruit. Both second-hand car prices (down 1.9 percent) and new car prices (down 1.0 percent) also fell.
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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U.K. Inflation Accelerates In June :
U.K. inflation rose to 2.9 percent in June on higher motor fuel and clothing and footwear charges, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday. It was the fastest since April 2012.
Although the rate exceeded the 2.7 percent seen in May, it stayed marginally below the expected rate of 3 percent. Month-on-month, consumer prices fell 0.2 percent, offsetting the 0.2 percent increase in the prior month.
CPIH, the new measure of consumer price inflation including owner occupiers' housing costs, grew 2.7 percent in June, up from 2.5 percent in May.
Consumer prices excluding energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, rose 2.3 percent, in line with forecast, but slightly faster than the 2.2 percent increase registered in May.
Retail price inflation also increased in June, to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent in the previous month. On a monthly basis, it was down 0.2 percent.
It was not any significant price movement during USD CPI so I am just posting some press release only sorry.
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U.S. Consumer Prices Rise Slightly More Than Expected In June :
Consumer prices in the U.S. rose by a little more than expected in the month of June, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday, with the price growth largely due to a jump in gasoline prices.
The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.5 percent in June after inching up by 0.1 percent in May. Economists had been expecting prices to increase by 0.4 percent.
Excluding food and energy prices, the core consumer price index edged up by 0.2 percent in June, matching the increase seen in the previous month as well as economist estimates.
2013-07-16 14:00 GMT | [USD - NAHB Housing Market Index]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Unexpectedly Improves To Seven-Year High :
Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly improved in the month of July, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday, with the reading on homebuilder confidence reaching its highest level in well over seven years.
The report showed that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index jumped to 57 in July from a downwardly revised 51 in June.
Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the 52 originally reported for the previous month.
With the unexpected increase, the housing market index rose to its highest level since a matching reading in January of 2006.
NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said, "Builders are seeing more motivated buyers coming through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to tighten."
"Meanwhile, as the infrastructure that supplies home building returns, some previously skyrocketing building material costs have begun to soften," he added.
The unexpected increase by the housing market index reflected increases by all three of the components that make up the headline index.
The component gauging current sales conditions rose to 60 in July from 55 in June, reaching its highest level since early 2006.
Additionally, the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months jumped to 67 in July from 60 in June, while the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers climbed to 45 from 40. Both readings were at their highest level since late 2005.
The report also showed increases by the housing market indexes for all four regions of the country. The index for the West showed a substantial increase, surging up by to 62 in July from 50 in June.
On Wednesday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release its report on new residential construction in the month of June. Economists expect housing starts to climb to an annual rate of 951,000.
Gold prices ended the U.S. day session modestly higher in quieter trading Tuesday. The precious metals were supported by a lower U.S. dollar index Tuesday. More short covering and bargain hunting were featured. August gold was last up $7.00 at $1,290.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $8.60 at $1,292.25. September Comex silver last traded up $0.116 at $19.955 an ounce.
The world market place is looking ahead to Wednesday morning’s appearance by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before the U.S. House of Representatives, where he will report on U.S. monetary policy and the economy. Traders hope the Fed chief will offer fresh clues on when the Fed will start to back off on its monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing). Many are still thinking the Fed will do such later this year and as soon as September. However, Bernanke in remarks last week hinted he wants QE to start to wind down later rather than sooner because he feels the U.S. economic recovery is still shaky.
There was a batch of U.S. economic data out Tuesday. The consumer price index for June came in a bit higher than expected, at up 0.5%, while industrial production and capacity utilization did not stray too far from expectations. This data had little impact on the market place or precious metals.
Reports overnight said demand for physical coming out of India and Asia is on the upswing, which is also supportive for the overall gold market. Some pundits are saying they believe central banks are stepping in to buy gold at the lower price levels.
The London P.M. gold fix is $1,291.50 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,284.75.
Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Tuesday. The bulls are still hanging on to some near-term technical momentum but need to show more power to begin to suggest the fledgling uptrend on the daily chart can be extended. The gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,214.40. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,297.20 and then at $1,300.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,275.60 and then at $1,262.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0
September silver futures prices closed near mid-range Tuesday. Short covering was featured. Bulls have recently gained a bit of upside momentum but have more work to do to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The silver bears still have the overall near-term chart advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $18.67. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $20.25 and then at $20.50. Next support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $19.66 and then at $19.43. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
September N.Y. copper closed up 355 points at 318.00 cents Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw more short covering. Copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 325.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 302.50 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 320.10 cents and then at 323.00 cents. First support is seen at 315.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 312.45 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
Gold Rises for Sixth Time in Seven Days as Dollar Falls :
Gold futures gained for the sixth time in seven sessions as the dollar’s drop increased demand for the metal as alternative investment on speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its monetary stimulus.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, fell as much as 0.6 percent. Gold jumped 5.4 percent last week as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said that “highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what’s needed.” He is scheduled to testify tomorrow before a congressional committee.
“The weakness in the dollar is keeping gold well supported,” Phil Streible, a senior commodity broker at R.J. O’Brien & Associates in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “People expect Bernanke to repeat what he said last week.”
Gold futures for August delivery gained 0.5 percent to settle at $1,290.40 an ounce at 1:44 p.m. on the Comex in New York. On July 11, the price reached $1,297.20, the highest for a most-active contract since June 24.
Futures have plunged 23 percent this year, erasing $59.3 billion from the value of exchange-traded products backed by the metal. Some investors lost faith in gold amid an equity rally and muted inflation. The commodity’s drop to a 34-month low on June 28 spurred more demand for coins, bars and jewelry.
Silver futures for September delivery rose 0.5 percent to $19.935 an ounce on the Comex. Trading was 53 percent below the average in the past 100 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Palladium futures for September delivery advanced 0.5 percent to $735.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price climbed for the seventh straight session, the longest rally since September. The metal reached $737.25, the highest since June 13.
Platinum futures for October delivery rose 0.3 percent to $1,425.10 an ounce. Earlier, the price reached $1,434.90, the highest since June 19.