Press review - page 532

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and range price movement 

2017-07-04 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

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From official report :

• "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
• "Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate news event

(Brainwashing trading system chart)

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD - intra-day bearish reversal with breakdown; 1.1219 level is the key (based on the article)

H4 price was bounced from 1,254 resistance level which is Senkou Span line and virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is on bearish breakout with 1,1219 support level to be testing for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "The traders return on Wednesday to the release of FOMC meeting minutes from the bank’s rate decision in June followed by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. And given the pronounced down-trend that’s been seen in the Greenback of late, with fresh 10-month lows printing on Friday just ahead of the close of Q2 – there will likely be considerable focus on these drivers as traders attempt to read the tea leaves around what the Fed might be doing in the second half of the year."
• "This is relevant for Gold prices given the fact that the continued sell-off in the Dollar has failed to inspire any lasting strength in Gold: While the U.S. Dollar drove down to 10-month lows, Gold prices continued to sell-off to fresh seven-week lows, and this speaks to the rising inflation expectations being seen globally after last week’s comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President, Mario Draghi. This can keep Gold prices moving-lower even, with USD-weakness, and traders can continue to move-forward with a down-side bias for Gold prices."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index - correction to the bearish reversal; 2.303 support is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition. The price is breaking Ichimoku cloud to below with descending triangle pattern to be breaking to below together 12.303 support level for the primary daily bearish reversal to be started.

• "The Thursday/Friday move put the DAX through the first zone of support in the 12537/486 vicinity, which now makes this once-viewed support an area of resistance. The early-week bounce put it to test, with yesterday’s high coming right at 12486. Stay below this zone and a push towards the French election gap starting at 12289 is viewed as the most likely scenario. It will only require a small lower-low from the Friday low to do so. A firm push into the gap will have the market on its heels as the likelihood increases significantly that we see a gap-fill down to 12048. The next level of support below the gap comes in at a swing-low just prior to the gap comes in at 19941."
• "The technical landscape is shaping up nicely for the election-gap to finally fill. From a tactical standpoint, those looking to play for a gap-fill are offered a solid risk/reward set-up at current levels. Resistance is close by, so stops can be placed just on the other side should the market break higher, while the target lies a good distance away."

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 - ranging bullish; 2,405 is the key for the possible bearish reversal (based on the article)

The price on S&P 500 daily chart is on bullish ranging above Ichimoku cloud: price is on ranging within 2,453 resistance level for the bullish to be continuing and 2,405 support level for the daily bearish reversal to be started.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the possible bearish reversal in the future.

• "We see a clean closing daily break below the Thursday low and subsequently the bottom of the range and November trend-line, the bias will quickly shift to bearish. In this case, the first potential line of support is a slope rising up from December under the May low. How much the market leans on it as support is unclear. Price action around a test of this line, should we see a drop, will determine whether we should pay mind to it. If it were to give-way then there isn’t anything significant until the May low at 2352, and then the important February 2016 trend-line which lies not far below."
• "Heads up: Later today we have June FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT, then Friday the June jobs report will be released. Both have market-moving potential over the short-term, with the minutes likely holding the largest implications."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia's Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-07-06 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 0.09B
• forecast data is 1.00B
• actual data is 2.47B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. 

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From official report :

• "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,956m in May 2017, a decrease of $363m on the surplus in April 2017."
• "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,471m in May 2017, an increase of $2,381m on the surplus in April 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia's Trade Balance news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

US Dollar (USD) to Argentine Peso (ARS): daily bullish breakout; 17.1278 is the key (based on the article)

USD/ARS daily price is on bullish breakout by ascendsing triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 17.1278 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the pruice breaks16.6319 support so the correction will be started, and if the price breaks 15.8342 support level to below on close daily bar so we may see the daily bearish reversal, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.

• "Merval index rose by 0.13%, closing at 22,415.77 points, boosted by the peso devaluation, which increased the demand for companies that rely on exports and have their shares traded on foreign financial markets. Lower oil prices, however, weighed on oil and gas shares and kept the Merval from rising further."
• "Traders mentioned that the dollar rise reflects political uncertainty before the legislative elections, higher demand by banks and companies to cover short positions and the MSCI's decision to keep Argentina as a frontier market, instead of upgrading the country to the emerging market status."

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin and tesla Investors is in a bubble territory (based on the article)

Bitcoin/US Dollar - daily price is located above the Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 2,998 bullish continuation resistance level and 2,047 bearish reversal support level. If the price breaks 2,633 resistance to above so we may see the bext target at 2,998 with the good possibility to the bullish trend to be resumed. If the price breaks 2.255 support to below so the support at 2.047 will be the next target leading to the daily bearish reversal.

• "Bitcoin and Tesla have turned scores of investors who bought early into these investments into millionaires. But these investors can lose their millions faster than they made them, and then sum, if the market momentum turns in the wrong direction. That’s what usually happens to many investors who decide with the emotional side rather than the rational side of their brains—including Sir Isaac Newton, who lost a small fortune in South Sea Bubble."
• "To be fair, it isn’t known whether an asset is in a bubble territory until the bubble bursts and investors lose a great deal of money.  What’s known is that bubbles usually burst following four Fed interest rate hikes. At least that's what set the stage for the burst of the dot.com bubble back in the early 2000s."
• "The good news for Tesla and Bitcoin investors is that the Fed isn't there yet. This means that even if there's a bubble, it's in the “sweet spot.” That's usually the time between the first and the fourth interest rate hike. During this time, the impact of a stronger economy on earnings is greater than its impact on interest rates, fueling strong momentum for speculative assets."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD with short probability (based on the article)

Daily price is on above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish ranging within the following s/r levels:

• 1.1445 resistance level located in the beginning of the daily bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 1.1109 support level located in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be startred.

If the price breaks 1.1312 support so we may see the secondary correction with 1.1171 target to re-enter.

• "Retail trader data shows 26.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.73 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06424; price has moved 6.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% higher than yesterday and 31.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.3% lower than yesterday and 4.8% lower from last week."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - intra-day ranging near bearish reversal (based on the article)

Price on H4 chart is located near and above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is near the border brtween the primary bullish and the ranging bearish market condition waiting for the direction.

• If the price breaks 1.1445 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
• If the price breaks 1.1312 support to below on close daily bar so we may see the price to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.
• If not so the price will be on ranging waiting for the direction.

• "Last week – EURUSD – after running sharply higher from a pullback ran into resistance by way of a trend-line extending lower from the August 2015 peak over the 2016 high. In this vicinity also lies several swing highs as far back as early 2015, with the most recent turning points coming during the first-half of 2016. The confluence of swing-highs and long-term trend-line make the mid-11400s an important inflection point, and a formidable area for buyers to push the single-currency through."
• "Looking at one-week implied volatility (currently at 7.3%), the projected one-standard deviation projected high clocks in at 11481, which is 36 pips above last week’s top. It suggests we may see a move beyond the beforementioned resistance and depending on momentum at the time it could turn out to be a meaningful breakout which could expose the 2016 high at 11615."
• "Looking lower, the projected one-week low is at 11251, which falls just below solid horizontal and trend-line support. Giving the benefit of the doubt to the strength of the trend and support the lower-bound looks less likely to be breached looking out over the next week. A decline to the 11300/285 area may present an attractive spot for would-be longs to enter. If, however, we see a close below the trend-line and support then a move back towards 11100 (200-day MA at 11446) may be in the works. A daily closing bar below support would be our cue that the lower range threshold may be underpriced and selling could become aggressive."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-07-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 152K
• forecast data is 175K
• actual data is 222K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events