Press review - page 525

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin could reach for new highs to make many more millionaires (based on the article)

Daily BTC/USD price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on bullish breakout since the beginning of April this year for ascending triangle pattern to be tested above with 2,936 resistance level to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Bitcoin has been flying high lately, making many investors overnight millionaires—investors who poured money into the digital currency when it was trading at a tiny fraction of its current price.  And it will make more millionaires, as it could reach for new highs before coming back down to earth. There are a few good reasons for Bitcoin to do so. First of all there’s the ultra-low interest rate environment, which makes the Bitcoin “carry trade,” an appealing proposition."
• "There are advantages that makes Bitcoin a better hedge against global uncertainties than conventional hedges like gold. At least for the millennial generation, which understands the digital currency better than the baby-boomer generation."
• "Unlike gold, for instance, Bitcoin is a convenient medium of payment around the globe."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-06-09 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Employment Change]

• past data is 3.2K
• forecast data is 11.5K
• actual data is 54.5K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

==========

From winnipegfreepress article:

• "Unemployment rate: 6.6 per cent (6.5).""Employment rate: 61.5 per cent (61.4)."
• "Labour force participation rate: 65.8 per cent (65.6)."
• "Number unemployed: 1,288,900 (1,265,000)."
• "Number working: 18,365,700 (18,311,200)."

==========

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Employment Change news event

[Sergey Golubev]

UK Vote Raises Political, Brexit Uncertainties; intra-day price bearish breakdown  (based on the article)

H4 price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is on testing 1.2634 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "The UK general election result created uncertainty over the policy platform, political cohesion and longevity of the next UK government, Fitch Ratings said Friday."
• "Elsewhere, Moody's Investors Service also said that the election result heightened uncertainty over Brexit negotiations. The strong electoral gains of the anti-austerity Labour Party mean that fiscal consolidation will have a lower priority and public debt will rise further."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 11 - June 18 (based on the article)

The US dollar advanced against its major peers amid the testimony from Comey. The focus now shifts to the highly anticipated Fed decision. We also have three additional rate decisions as well as other figures.

1. US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. Core PPI rose by 0.4% and is expected to decelerate to 0.2% in May.
2. UK jobs report, Wednesday, 8:30. Wages are predicted to remain unchanged at 2.4%.
3. US CPI: Wednesday, 12:30. For the month of May, the headline number is expected to rise by 0.3% and Core CPI by 0.2%.
4. US retail sales: Wednesday, 12:30. Retail sales advanced by 0.4% in April and 0.1% is expected now. Core sales carry expectations for 0.2% after 0.3% beforehand.
5. US Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30. This is one of the Fed’s more important meetings. In addition to the regular statement, the central bank also publishes updated forecasts for growth, employment and inflation. 
6. NZ GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. After a relatively slow growth rate of 0.4% in Q4 2016, expectations stand at 0.7% for Q1 2017.
7. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. The forecast for May stands at a more modest 10.3K. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 5.7%.
8. Swiss rate decision: Thursday, 7:30. No change is expected now, despite a weaker exchange rate.
9. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. 
10. Japanese rate decision:  Friday early morning, no specific hour.
11. US housing data: Friday, 12:30. Housing starts disappointed in April with a fall to 1.17 million and a small increase is likely for May.
12. US consumer sentiment:  Friday, 14:00. In theory, more confident consumers buy more, but the correlation with actual retail sales is not always there.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, June 11 - June 18 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was on the back foot after Draghi managed to drag the euro down and as the greenback recovered. The week ahead consists of French parliamentary elections, an important German survey, the Eurogroup meetings and more.

1. French Parliamentary elections: Sunday, results due before markets open. After Macron won the presidency, he needs his new party to win a majority in parliament in order to pass his reforms. The young president succeeded in attracting candidates from both the left and the right as well as non-politicians. Recent opinion polls are positive for Macron’s party La Republique En Marche. This is the first round of the elections and the second one is next week. A victory for Macron is priced in and the euro would react negatively only if he loses ground. In any case, the impact is not expected to be as strong as in the presidential elections.
2. German WPI: Tuesday, 6:00. A slower increase of 0.2% is projected now.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00.
4. German CPI (final): Wednesday, 6:00.
5. Employment change: Wednesday, 9:00. This quarterly figure comes a bit late, closer to the end of the following quarter.
6. Industrial output: Wednesday, 9:00.
7. French CPI (final): Thursday, 6:45. The second-largest economy saw prices ticking up by 0.1% in May. This will probably be confirmed now.
8. Trade balance: Thursday, 9:00. We now get the data for April which is projected to show 22.4 billion.
9. Eurogroup meetings: From Thursday afternoon and sometimes late into the night. The group of euro-zone finance ministers convenes and Greece tops the agenda.
10. CPI (final): Friday, 9:00.

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin market value saw an increase of 61% over the previous month (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bullish breakout with above Ichimoku cloud by 2936 resistabnce level to be testing to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

If we look at H1 intra-day price so the bullish reversal pattern is forming by the price which si indicating the bullish trend to be continuing in the near future for example, otherwise - the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels by the crossing 2915 support level to below.

• "In May 2017, the Bitcoin trading value in China reached CNY21.708 billion, four times that of April 2017. And the total Bitcoin value reached CNY19,200, a record high price."
• "China's National Committee of Experts on the Internet Financial Security Technology the latest numbers and showed that by the end of May 2017, the world's Bitcoin market value saw an increase of 61% over the previous month to USD37.48 billion. However, the ratio of its market value among global virtual currencies decreased to 45.62%, due to the rapid growth of other competing currencies."
• "In addition, with the growing of trading volume, China's Bitcoin trading price was over CNY10,000 for the first time on May 10 and the price continued to increase in the following two weeks. On May 25, it reached a record high price of CNY19,200."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Analysis by Societe Generale: the euro will rise (based on the article)

Weekly price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging qwithin the following support/resistance levels:\

• 1.1000 support level located in the beginning of the ranging trend to be started with 1.0685 weekly bearish reversal target at 1.0685, and
• 1.1418 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be resumed.

By the way, SocGen is evaluating the most likely future possible trend for this pair as a bullish continuation of case the price breaks 1.15 resistance level to above.

• "The last time that FX vol was durably in a low regime coincided with a period when central bank policies were more accommodative than today. The market now sees reduced political fears and is refocusing on the modalities of ECB tightening, the case for more euro bullishness and more volatility is resurfacing."
• "In our view, it is very likely that both the euro and its volatility will rise."
• "We therefore recommend Buying a 6m EUR/USD call strike 1.15, conditioned by realised volatility being above 9% at the maturity."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-06-13 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

• past data is 2.7%
• forecast data is 2.7%
• actual data is 2.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

==========

From official report:

• "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.9% in May 2017, up from 2.7% in April."
• "The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH, not a National Statistic) 12-month inflation rate was 2.7% in May 2017, up from 2.6% in April."

==========

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Alibaba - weekly bullish breakout; 148.27 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly share price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on bullish breakout by 148.27 resistance level to be testing together with ascending triangle pattern to be formed for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Towards the end of last week, Alibaba pleasantly surprised its investors and more than likely shocked its critics and the forever-short-never-wrong crowd when it raised its forecast going forward for fiscal 2018."
• "The stock made life-time highs of $148.29 at the end of last week before getting caught up in the "fat-finger event" of last week and backing off by about 10% from those lifetime highs."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Current Account and range price movement 

2017-06-13 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Current Account]

• past data is -2.42B
• forecast data is 0.95B
• actual data is 0.24B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter. 

==========

From official report:

• "New Zealand's seasonally adjusted current account balance was a $2,836 million deficit in the March 2017 quarter ($1,143 million larger than the December 2016 quarter's deficit)."
• "For the year ended March 2017, the current account deficit was $8.1 billion (3.1 percent of GDP; it was 3.1 percent of GDP for the March 2016 year)."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Current Account news event