Press review - page 455

[Sergey Golubev]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Forecasts: $51 Per Barrel in 2017 (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located within 100-day SMA/200-day SMA ranging area of the chart: the price is on testing 44.76 support level to below for the reversal from the ranging bullish to the primary ebarish market condition. Alternative, if the price breaks 38.2% Fibo level at 48.18 to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.

Weekly price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging condition and above Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) for the bullish trend so we are having ranging bullish market condition on weekly Ichimoku chart. If the price breaks 41.49 support level to below so we may get long-tern nearish reversal, alternarive - if the price breaks 53.71 resistance to above so the primary long-tern bullish trend will be resumed.

"The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released on November 8 forecasts that North Sea Brent crude oil prices will average $43 per barrel (b) in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $43/b in 2016 and $50/b in 2017."

Most likely scenario for the price movement in 2017: the ranging trend within 54/41 levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 16 pips range price movement

2016-11-14 15:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech at the Italian Treasury, in Rome.

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From Forex Crunch article: EUR/USD finds support only at 2016 lows – why and what’s next

• "The US dollar continues storming forward, and EUR/USD sees no mercy. The world’s No. 1 currency pair is trading at the lowest levels since early 2016. So far, it has reached 1.0728, above support at 1.0710. The pair did break below the low of 1.0825 seen in March. At that time, the ECB presented a lot of new measures but also said they were done for the time."
• "If 1.0710 breaks, we will be in areas where the pair spent little time. 1.0630 is a stepping stone on the way down. Stronger support awaits at 1.0520, the level the pair visited on another ECB rate event: the December 2015 meeting. And the last line in the sand belongs to 1.0460, last seen in March 2015, and the lowest level in well over a decade. Some even see an open door to parity Resistance awaits at 1.0820, 1.0960 and 1.10."

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

[Sergey Golubev]

ECB's Constancio Cautions Against 'Hasty & Positive' Conclusions On Trump Win (based on the article)

 

"Markets have rushed into concluding that the U.S. economy is poised for more growth on an expansionary budget policy, after Donald Trump won the presidential election last week, European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said Monday." 

"This may be the case in the short-term but the real negative effects of heightened uncertainty can come later," he said. 

"We should be cautious in drawing hasty, positive conclusions from those market developments because they may not necessarily indicate that the world economy will have an accelerating recovery with higher growth." 

"However, considerable risks and uncertainties to financial stability remain." 

[Sergey Golubev]

A Trump Playbook For Fixing America's Economy (adapted from the article)

"I’m a professor of economics at Boston University. I’m one of many economists who is deeply concerned about the direction of America’s policy and the course of economic policy. I’ve taken the initiative to write you a playbook for economic reform. The playbook contains a number of very simply (postcard length) reforms, which I’ve developed with economists who specialize in taxes, healthcare, Social Security, banking, environmental economics, fiscal accounting, education, and immigration."

Free to Download: A Trump Playbook for Fixing America’s Economy 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 28 pips range price movement

2016-11-15 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From Econotimes article: RBA likely to stay on hold for sometime on domestic, global uncertainty

• "The Reserve Bank of Australia’s November Board meeting minutes were widely in line with the narrative from the Monetary Policy statement. The overall tone seems very optimistic, with economic growth projection to be around potential in the quarters ahead, noted ANZ in a research report."
• "Significantly, the November meeting minutes imply that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be more comfortable with the inflation outlook and possibly increasingly confident that pressures of disinflation have peaked. The minutes reiterated that the risks to global inflation are quite balanced but also judged risks to domestic inflation as “broadly balanced”, underpinned by “evident that wage growth in Australia had stabilized”, said ANZ."
• "We continue to see the RBA on hold with the cash rate steady at 1.5 percent. While the RBA’s forecasts for persistently low inflation implies an easing bias, this is tempered by a more balanced assessment of the inflation risks and ongoing financial stability concerns."

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AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD : German Gross Domestic Product

2016-11-15 07:00 GMT | [EUR - GDP]

• past data is 0.4%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

"German economic growth is losing some momentum. In the third quarter of 2016, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% on the second quarter of 2016 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations; this is reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In the first half of the year, the GDP had increased somewhat more, by 0.4% in the second quarter and 0.7% in the first quarter."

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CAD M5: 25 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events

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AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and GOLD (XAU/USD): Advance Retail Sales

2016-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 1.0%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From Market Watch article: U.S. retail sales post biggest back-to-back sales since 2014

"Retail sales jumped 0.8% last month after a revised 1% gain in September, the government said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a seasonally adjusted 0.7% advance."

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events

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USD/CAD M5: 29 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Labour Price Index and 27 pips range price movement

2016-11-16 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Wage Price Index]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Wage Price Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses.

==========

From official report:

 

• "The trend index and the seasonally adjusted index for Australia both rose 0.4% in the September quarter 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Australia Labour Price Index news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.K. Claimant Count Change (adapted from dailyfx)

• "GBP/USD may continue to carve a near-term series of lower highs & lows as U.K. Jobless Claims are projected to increase another 2.0K in October, but a marked pickup in household earnings may heighten the appeal of the British Pound as the Bank of England (BoE) warns ‘monetary policy can respond, in either direction.’"
• "It seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is gradually move away from its easing cycle as Governor Mark Carney warns ‘inflation is going up. A pass through of a 20% fall in sterling is going to come and will build towards the end of this year and into 2017,’ and the sterling may stage a larger recovery over the near-term as BoE officials argue that ‘there are limits to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated,’ Nevertheless, the MPC appears to be in no rush to remove the highly accommodative stance as the outlook for the U.K. economy remains clouded with high uncertainty, and the British Pound remains at risk of facing headwinds over the coming months as the region prepares to depart from the European Union (EU)."

Bearish GBP Trade: Job & Wage Growth Falls Short of Market Forecasts

• "Need red, five-minute candle following the report to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
• "If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Employment Report Beats Expectations

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD position."
• "Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse."

Daily price is on bullish trending along Senkou Span line which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area on the chart. The price is on ranging within 1.2673 'bullish continuation' resistance level and 1.2352 'bearish reversal' support level waiting for the direction of the primary trend to be started.

• If the price will break 1.2673 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If price will break 1.2352 support on close daily bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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GBP/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news events 

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Quick Technical Overview - Brent Crude Oil: ranging waiting for the daily bearish reversal or for the bullish trend to be resumed (based on the article)

The price is located abobe 200-day SMA and below 100-day SMA for the bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 47.82 resistance level located near and above 100 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 44.76 support level located below 200 SMA in the primary bearish trend to be resumed.

• "The bearish move in Crude Oil prices this week has been short lived, with the commodity now trading back to weekly highs at $45.29. This move has been predicated on the hope that OPEC will agree to cut production later in the week. This morning’s advance should be seen as significant as it is the first sign of a meaningful reversal after Crude Oil Prices have declined as much as $9.73 a barrel from the October high of $51.91." 
• "Technically, Crude Oil prices are now trading back above the 200 day MVA (simple moving average). Typically this indicator is used as a trend qualifier, and if Crude remains above the MVA it may be seen as a bullish signal for the market. It should be noted that the last time that Crude Oil prices traded above the MVA was in August, which saw the commodity advance as much as $12.68 a barrel. Even though that prices are now trending higher, traders should continue to monitor the MVA at $43.95. A move in Crude Oil prices back under the MVA could just as easily signal shift towards bearish market conditions." 

• If the price breaks 47.82 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If price breaks 44.76 support on close bar so the primary bearish reversal will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
47.82	44.76
48.95	44.18
50.07	N/A