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GBP/USD forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the week, testing the 1.55 region. We find this very interesting, because the 1.55 area was massively resistive in the past, and as a result it should now be massively supportive. We originally went as high as 1.58 last week, and then fell from there. That was where we decided that the trend had changed completely. We did not get above there, and the fact that we have fallen back to this area makes is a very interesting market to us at the moment. After all, we feel like the longer-term trend is been decided before our very eyes at the moment.
We look at this as a market that is going to make a significant decision soon. We believe that if we can break below the 1.54 level, the market should continue to go much lower. At that point in time, we would be sellers and aiming for at least 1.50, if not even lower than that. On the other hand, if we can break above the 1.58 level, we believe that this market should go much higher with a significant amount of noise to be found at the 1.60 handle as is expected by all large, round, psychologically significant regions.
The British pound has of course been very bullish for some time now, so the question then becomes whether or not this is simply a pullback from a massive move higher and just simply the market running out of momentum, or if it is the sign that the market is ready to turn back around and continue the longer-term downtrend. The one thing that we do know is that the US dollar suddenly looks like it’s strengthening, which makes us a little bit concerned about the uptrend. Because of this, we think that longer-term traders are probably going to be best served by waiting for a breakout above 1.58 to start buying again, or of course the aforementioned break down below the 1.54 level. In the meantime, it will probably be more of a short-term trading type of environment.
EUR/USD forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The EUR/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, testing the 1.10 level for support. That’s basically where we close for the week, and this is an area that we should see support at. However, we are closing at the very bottom of the range, and that of course is a very bearish sign. This is a simple set up for us: we believe that if we get a daily close below the 1.10 handle, that the market should continue down to roughly 1.05 or so. On the other hand, if we get a supportive daily candle near the 1.10 level, we believe that the market will then bounce towards the 1.15 handle. With that being said, daily charts will probably be where you need to look for setups.
A Fundamental Push for Key EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY Levels? (based on dailyfx article)
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook (based on actionforex article)
EUR/USD's fall last week and suggests that rebound from 1.0461 could have completed at 1.1466 already, well below. 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 1.0461/0520 support zone. Meanwhile, above 1.1207 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 1.1466.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.3993 is the third leg of such pattern. A medium term bottom is in place at 1.0461, ahead of 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283. Some consolidations could be seen. But after all, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish. We'd still favor another fall to extend the down trend.
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.6039 (2008 high) is viewed as a corrective move with fall from 1.3993 as the first leg. We'll start to look for bottoming signal below 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283. However, sustained trading below 1.0283 will open up the case for a new low below 0.8223.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Something Interesting in Financial Video February 2014
Sergey Golubev, 2014.02.10 11:15
06: DURABLE GOODS
This is the 6th video in a series on economic reports created for all markets, or for those who simply have an interest in economics. In this lesson we cover the Durable Goods report.
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Previous parts:
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Durable Goods OrdersDurable Goods Orders (DGO) is an indicator of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable goods are expected to last more than three years, e.g.: cars, furniture, appliances, etc.
This indicator is important for the market because it gives an idea of the consumers' confidence in the current economic situation. Since durable goods are expensive, the increase in the number of orders for them shows the willingness of consumers to spend their money on them. Thus, the growth of this indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to growth of the national currency.
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USDJPY M5 : 47 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event
EURUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event :
Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD makes a break back below the 100 day MA (based on forexlive article)
The AUDUSD made another stride in the bears direction by falling below the 50 % retracement of the move up from the April 1 low and the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above). Those levels come in at 0.7847 and 0.78415 respectively. This is the new risk defining level for the pair. Stay below and the bears remain in control. Move above and the waters get more muddy.
The pair has been down 6 of the last 7 days. The high corrective price today, stalled right at the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below). Traders short from that risk defining level, were rewarded with a kick lower after the US CPI data. Next support target at 0.7800, then 0.7772 (61.8% of the move up).
Yellen's Words Fuels The Greenback's Rise (based on forbes article)
"The U.S. dollar hit a two-month high against the yen and is holding firm against other Group of 10 currencies on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested late last week the central bank will raise interest rates in 2015."
"With U.S. markets and most of Europe on holiday today, the thinned trading conditions will have most investors looking ahead to tomorrow’s forward-looking U.S. durables data, and Friday’s release of second estimate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) as key fundamental touch points for the dollar’s direction. Obviously, any news on Greece or of a potential Grexit will have an immediate impact on the EUR, similar to what happened in the overnight session in Asia."
"Yellen argued that the slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth was “largely” due to temporary factors, such as the record cold weather and a port dispute. The market took “largely” as being more important or convincing than Yellen’s “in part” verbiage that was used in the most recent FOMC statement (there will be a rebound in growth in the second quarter)."
"Yellen repeated her assessment that “it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds target.” Not a very transparent statement on timing, but if you include rebounding economic growth, plus a pickup in consumer prices that’s supported by wage growth, you have a fixed-income market now pricing in a rate hike no later than September."
Sell AUD/USD At S/T Resistance; Sell EUR/USD At Breakout Zone - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)
Credit Suisse looked at the technical setups for AUD/USD, and EUR/USD where CS is bearish near-term, and recommends selling limit-orders on approaching specific technical levels.
AUDUSD
Starting with AUD/USD, CS notes that the immediate focus turns towards a cluster of supports at .7790/74.
"AUDUSD has reversed its early gains, completing a bearish “outside” session to weigh on a cluster of supports at .7790/74 - the early May low, 61.8% retracement and 55-day average support – where we would expect fresh buying to show here". "A direct break lower though can trigger further selling for .7683 initially, followed by a stronger support from the range lows at .7555/33. Near-term resistance moves lower to .7861/67, followed by .7936. Above can target .7976/86 and then .8030/63 which we look to ideally cap".
CS runs a limit order to sell AUD/USD at 0.7855, targeting a move to 0.7605.
EURUSD
"We look for further weakness here to test the 55-day average at 1.0918 at first, through which can aim at the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0849/43, followed by the low end of the former range at 1.0660/14". "Near-term resistance moves to 1.1062, then 1.1101 with price and “neckline” resistance at 1.1208/48 expected to cap to keep the trend lower. Strategy: Flat. Sell at 1.1060, stop above 1.1248 for 1.0525".
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Overcome 1.10 Figure (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence pointed to fading upside momentum. Near-term support is at 1.0934, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 61.8% level at 1.0808. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 1.1059 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 1.1214.
AUD/USD – Consolidates Below Key 0.7850 Level (based on marketpulse article)
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD is trading in a very narrow range above 0.7820. Current range: trading right above 0.7820.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.7700.
• Above: 0.8200.