What is the true market value of a truly profitable system?
3) then 4)
maybe 2) but very expensive
dont like the first one. its kinda insane in my opinion =)
Option 5...
After you've woken from your slumber & realised it was all a wonderful dream, I'd make a cup of tea, have some toast and get on with the mundane task of looking for that "Holy Grail" once more until I fell asleep across my lap-top and had that same dream again... you know... the one where you've created that killer system and think to yourself - what do I do, 1)... 2)... 3)... or 4)...
GROUNDHOG DAY ! :-)
Seriously - good luck in whatever you plan to do. If you've found the system that works, read this post and delete & download your history again - just for fun...
My thoughts:
1. $1M-$10M;
2. it is retail, small business;
3. second part is impossible, because your trade operations are visible for several professional market participants;
4. primary target.
As for institutions, MQL is a front edge of progressive financial technologies, it is out of their collective minds.
Let's say you have finally, after x years, found a winning combination of indicators that works on all timeframes and financial instruments (fx, futures, commodities, indices,...). You have done backtests on multiple timeframes and they all have an all-round off-the-chart performance (let's say 98% winners, losses=profits in size). You have verified with a bootstrap that your performance is due to skill and not luck.
What would you do?
1) try to sell it on here
2) set up a website or a signal service to generate revenue
3) slowly build up your account with sound risk management and never speak about it to anyone
4) open a hedge fund and try to raise capital
And if you were to sell it, how much would such a thing be worth? Would institutional parties (banks, funds, prop desks) be interested in a piece of mql4 code? And how much would a realistic price be?
$100k? $1M? $5M? ...?
Think about this the next time you see someone trying to sell the next super system / indicator / signal service !
And by the way, let me know your thoughts: 1, 2, 3 or 4?
3 .... but I'd go to several accounts and never let them get too large and constantly withdraw small amounts. Because most of the brokeres are bucket shops and
and cannot handle large losses and wil just shut you down and likely keep your money. The larger honest ones will eventually figure out that you are winning way too much and shut you down, but at least they will pay you what you have earned. Long term I suspect that a successful Ea will force radical changes to the Forex market, think about it, no one will allow you to just siphon off money relentlessly. They will react, so be discreet and good luck.
PS Does anyone have thoughts on how the industry would react to successful Ea"s? Limit Trades? Limit Accounts?
Thoughts about the industry
1. Notion "EA" will be replaced by notion "trading robot".
2. Trading robots will crowd out human traders.
3. Successful trading robots will be widely distributed entities.
4. Trading robot clans will be controlled by most major robots manufacturers.
5. Trading robot manufacturers will be most major participants of financial markets.
Thoughts about the industry
1. Notion "EA" will be replaced by notion "trading robot".
2. Trading robots will crowd out human traders.
3. Successful trading robots will be widely distributed entities.
4. Trading robot clans will be controlled by most major robots manufacturers.
5. Trading robot manufacturers will be most major participants of financial markets.
You don't think that the brokers will retaliate against successful robots?
Keith
I wonder if those guys commenting that FX Brokers will shut down profitable traders understand the basic fundamentals of Forex Trading.
Brokers are NOT like Casinos trying to make a buck out of the total take. Brokers make a tiny percentage on EVERY transaction placed thru them - WIN or LOSE. They earn what is in the spread. They are not paying out any profits, suffering any losses, only earning a commission on a transaction to buy or sell some currency. The more you play - the more they make. Offering better service than a competitive Broker they aim to keep you inhouse forever. Your winnings keep them happy. The profits paid to any trader come from the losses of other traders - people like you and I who get it wrong MOST of the time. Who was it who claimed 86% of FX bets are losing FX bets? That's better than running any Roulette Wheel! So, why would they need to rob anybody? They get quite enough voluntarily.
I agree, there are scam artists that have become Brokers - and we read about them only very occasionally. But those kinda poeple are in all walks of life - just check your eMail.
No one was more stressed than I to learn that a powerful Web-based FX school recommended such a scam artist recently - unwittingly. So, we have to beware - they are getting clever.
And one last thing - WHO first said 86% are losing bets - and how did he do the counting?
Brush up on your systems to spend more time with your loved-ones. They are the ones suffering until you admit you aint ever gonna get it right.
I wish you all every success.
I wonder if those guys commenting that FX Brokers will shut down profitable traders understand the basic fundamentals of Forex Trading.
Brokers are NOT like Casinos trying to make a buck out of the total take. Brokers make a tiny percentage on EVERY transaction placed thru them - WIN or LOSE. They earn what is in the spread. They are not paying out any profits, suffering any losses, only earning a commission on a transaction to buy or sell some currency. The more you play - the more they make. Offering better service than a competitive Broker they aim to keep you inhouse forever. Your winnings keep them happy. The profits paid to any trader come from the losses of other traders - people like you and I who get it wrong MOST of the time. Who was it who claimed 86% of FX bets are losing FX bets? That's better than running any Roulette Wheel! So, why would they need to rob anybody? They get quite enough voluntarily.
I agree, there are scam artists that have become Brokers - and we read about them only very occasionally. But those kinda poeple are in all walks of life - just check your eMail.
No one was more stressed than I to learn that a powerful Web-based FX school recommended such a scam artist recently - unwittingly. So, we have to beware - they are getting clever.
And one last thing - WHO first said 86% are losing bets - and how did he do the counting?
Brush up on your systems to spend more time with your loved-ones. They are the ones suffering until you admit you aint ever gonna get it right.
I wish you all every success.
Reality check, of the 200 or so Mt4 brokers, only a handful are pure ECN brokers, the rest are trading against you.
The ability of a pure ECN broker to survive on the spread depends on their ability to lay off your trade to someone else. Who is this someone else willing and anxious to lose all this money? Forex is basically a zero sum game, your gain is someones loss, someone who will eventually get tired of losing.
I hope the current situation continues at least until I can get my hands on some decent profits, non-the-less I will be watching for industry movements to limit or curtail trading robots.
Cheers
Keith
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Let's say you have finally, after x years, found a winning combination of indicators that works on all timeframes and financial instruments (fx, futures, commodities, indices,...). You have done backtests on multiple timeframes and they all have an all-round off-the-chart performance (let's say 98% winners, losses=profits in size). You have verified with a bootstrap that your performance is due to skill and not luck.
What would you do?
1) try to sell it on here
2) set up a website or a signal service to generate revenue
3) slowly build up your account with sound risk management and never speak about it to anyone
4) open a hedge fund and try to raise capital
And if you were to sell it, how much would such a thing be worth? Would institutional parties (banks, funds, prop desks) be interested in a piece of mql4 code? And how much would a realistic price be?
$100k? $1M? $5M? ...?
Think about this the next time you see someone trying to sell the next super system / indicator / signal service !
And by the way, let me know your thoughts: 1, 2, 3 or 4?