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Friday, July 6th
The EUR/USD pair remains positive at the end of this week, keeping its positions above the level of 1.1700, on the back of ongoing sell-off of the US dollar. Yesterday markets negatively reacted on the FOMC minutes, as the Committee highlighted potential risks related to a protectionist trade policy of the US. However, investors still see an additional rate hike this year, so the impact of the protocols on the greenback was limited. Meanwhile, today investors’ eyes remain glued to the US-China trade war, which officially started today with the US tariffs on Chinese imports. On the other hand, as Chinese officials stated earlier this week, Beijing has already prepared retaliatory measures, which will be implemented in near future. Besides the US-China conflict, today investors will also pay attention to the release of the NFP report, which is another risky event of this Friday.
The GBP/USD pair gained bullish momentum in early Europe, having recovered some positions after yesterday’s drawdown. The main reason of pair’s positive tone can be called ongoing sell-off of the greenback, which dominates the market this week. However, today the underlying theme across the FX-space remains escalation of the US-China trade conflict, as the US imposed import fees on Chinese goods. And now investors are waiting for further developments, as both economies have already prepared a response in case of further aggression that in turn heats up demand for the safety. Moreover, today markets will likely to stay cautious, as we are heading towards another key risky event of this week – release of the US employment data, which will be able to bring additional impact on the market during the NA session.
The USD/JPY pair shows minor gains for the second session in a row, having entered the area of 110.70 in Asia. On Friday, the main navigator across the market remains the tension due to the trade war between two world’s largest economies, as today the US officially implemented new tariffs on Chinese imports. Now markets remain in anticipation of retaliatory measures from Chinese side. Initial reaction of investors to this event was limited, however, further aggravation of the situation will have significant consequences in long-term projection. Now the pair is trading in the north direction, however, further gains look limited, as we are awaiting the increase in demand for safety due to recent events and upcoming NFP report that will offer some support to the safe-haven yen.
The AUD/USD pair gained some pips this morning after quiet Asian session, having again spiked the level of 0.7400. Ongoing weakness of the US dollar still dominates the market so far this week that positively affects the pair. However, further gains of the major are unlikely, as now all market’s attention remains glued to the US-China trade conflict, which officially began with the US applied new tariffs on Chinese imports. According to the latest reports, China vows to respond with tariffs on top US agricultural goods, such as soybeans and cotton. So now, markets expect acceleration of risk aversion, which will put some pressure on the higher-yielding Aussie. As for the data, today investors will also pay attention to the important data from the US labor market, which will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.
Major events of the day:
US Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Ivey PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1615 R. 1.1759
USDJPY S. 110.13 R. 110.99
GBPUSD S. 1.3135 R. 1.3317
USDCHF S. 0.9891 R. 0.9967
AUDUSD S. 0.7337 R. 0.7433
NZDUSD S. 0.6731 R. 0.6829
USDCAD S. 1.3081 R. 1.3195
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