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Friday, June 29th
The EUR/USD pair witnessed a volatile session in Asia, having jumped for 100 pips and refreshed its intraday highs on the level of 1.6666. On Friday, 28 EU leaders reached an agreement on migration issue after lasting talks, which implies that EU countries can accept immigrants on a voluntary basis. This outcome has eased concerns over migration issue in Germany, however, Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that German government still has a lot to do to close the question. In addition, bearish dynamics of the US dollar also collaborates to pair’s recovery on Friday. Today traders will focus their attention on the EU CPI data and second round of the EU Summit, while the US data calendar won’t offer us anything relevant at the end of the week.
The GBP/USD pair has finally managed to recover some pips from its 7-month lows, located on the level of 1.3050, after 3-day downside rally. It seems that improved risk sentiment, caused by EU agreement on the migration issue, and weaker US dollar allowed the pair to recover some ground at the end of this week. However, the pound remains extremely vulnerable, as recent talks of the BoE MPC members leave much to be desired. Moreover, on Wednesday the BoE released their latest Financial Stability Report, which again highlighted risks to the UK economy related to uncertainty around Brexit. But now all trader’s attention shifts towards the UK GDP report, which is the only important release for today, so broad market trend will remain the key determinant for the pair later this Friday.
The USD/JPY pair continues trading in the north direction for the fourth consecutive session, having tested its weekly highs on the level of 110.79, on the back of renewed buying interest to higher-yielding assets. Today improved risk-on sentiment remains the underlying theme across the market, which was sparked by the outcome of the EU Summit, where 28 EU leaders reached an agreement on migration issue. Moreover, it seems that better demand for risky assets has overshadowed several bearish drivers, such as negative dynamics of the US dollar and upbeat Japan’s inflation figures, thus limiting pair’s chances on a downside correction. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar won’t be able to surprise investors with anything relevant, so risk sentiment and US dollar price dynamics will continue to determine pair’s further direction.
The AUD/USD pair is one of the best performers of this Asia, having bounced off the area of 1.5-year lows, marked on the level of 0.7324 earlier this week. The main reason pair’s U-turn can be called improved demand for risky assets, such as the Aussie, on the back of agreement between EU countries regarding migration issue. In addition, downward correction of the US dollar is another positive factor for the pair, which allows major currencies to recover the ground at the end of this week. On the data front, today the US economic calendar will remain silent, offering only second-tier data, so broad market trend will remain the key navigator for the pair during this trading session.
Major events of the day:
German Unemployment Change – 11.00 (GMT +3)
UK GDP – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
EU Leaders Summit – 13.00 (GMT +3)
Canada GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1493 R. 1.1639
USDJPY S. 109.67 R. 111.09
GBPUSD S. 1.3009 R. 1.3161
USDCHF S. 0.9931 R. 1.0015
AUDUSD S. 0.7315 R. 0.7381
NZDUSD S. 0.6706 R. 0.6836
USDCAD S. 1.3169 R. 1.3395
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