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Monday, May 14th
The EUR/USD pair remains positive for the third session in a row, having refreshed its weekly highs on the level of 1.1974. Today broad-based retreat of the greenback, triggered by weak inflation figures, remains the key navigator across the market, offering support to the pair. Moreover, US bulls remain exhausted after recent massive rally, which was underpinned by prospects of more aggressive Fed monetary policy this year. However, markets have eased odds of a fourth rate hike in 2018 in wake of recent weaker-than-expected US economic data. On the data front, today the economic calendar will remain silent, offering only secondary data reports, so widespread market trend will be the key determinant for the pair during the first trading session of this week.
The GBP/USD pair trades with mildly bullish bias this Monday, extending recovery from its 4-month lows, marked last week on the level of 1.3460. Recall, on Thursday the BoE left its interest rate unchanged, while noting that further increases in rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, as the latest economic indicators showed a decline in the UK economic growth. However, this outcome of the BoE meeting was broadly expected and the pair regained its slightly bullish tone shortly. In addition, retreat of the greenback against its major rivals due to weak economic data also offers some support to the pair this Monday. In the day ahead, broad market trend will remain the key determinant of the pair, as the economic calendar won’t offer us anything interesting during this trading session.
The AUD/USD pair tries to extend its last week’s recovery, trading at a profit for the fourth consecutive session. Recent recovery of the pair is mainly attributed to broad retreat of the US dollar, which is the key theme across the market this Monday. It seems that the greenback is still suffering from disappointing US inflation figures, which lowered odds of an additional rate hike this year. However, it is expected that the further recovery of the pair won’t last long, as we are getting closer to the RBA monetary policy meeting, which will take place during the next Asian session already. The RBA lately was showing dovish stance due to weak economic data and markets are not awaiting for any surprises from this meeting. But today, nothing interesting is scheduled in economic calendar, so the pair will continue to follow the US dollar price dynamics for further direction.
The USD/JPY pair remains mostly flat at the start of this week, trading around the level of 109.30. It seems that the yen fails to benefit from broad retreat of the US dollar. Moreover, there was no clear catalysts for pair’s recovery, however, recent mildly bullish trend of the pair can be mainly explained by improved divergence between the Fed and BoJ. Looking ahead, today we are expecting pretty calm session, as nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend at the start of this working week.
Major events of the day:
None
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1855 R. 1.2009
USDJPY S. 108.94 R. 109.76
GBPUSD S. 1.3450 R. 1.3640
USDCHF S. 0.9940 R. 1.0068
AUDUSD S. 0.7499 R. 0.7587
NZDUSD S. 0.6934 R. 0.7002
USDCAD S. 1.2698 R. 1.2846
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