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Monday, May 7th
The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Monday, having refreshed its intraday lows at 1.1938 spot. It seems that demand for the US dollar has improved across the market, forcing the pair to step closer to its multi-month lows, marked on the level of 1.1911 last Friday in wake of data from the US labor market. At the end of the last week, the US released the NFP report, which failed to match market expectations, however, the US dollar still rose against its major competitors, as the overall US unemployment rate showed positive results. Moreover, growing divergence between the ECB and Fed also keeps the pair under pressure lately on the back of market expectations for two Fed interest rate hikes this year. As for the data for today, the economic calendar won’t be able to offer us anything interesting, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend during this trading session.
The GBP/USD pair remains highly pressured at the start of this working week, trading in the region of its 4-month lows, marked below the level of 1.3500 during the last trading session. The pair have lost more than 8 cents for the last 3 weeks, which could be explained by lowered odds of a rate hike on the next BoE meeting, which will take place this Thursday already. Earlier this year, the BoE showed intention to increase its refi rate on the back of acceleration of the UK economic growth. However, market’s expectations of a rate hike faded away after the most part of UK economic indicators came in red color, forcing investors to look skeptical at the possible tightening of the BoE monetary policy. Moreover, improved demand for the US dollar and increased divergence between the Fed and BoE also contribute to the sharp downside rally of the pair. In the day ahead, broad market trend will continue to play a role of the key navigator for the pair, as the economic calendar won’t bring us anything interesting this Monday.
The NZD/USD pair failed to extend its recovery mode and eased part of its overnight gains, stepping closer to the level of 0.7000. The pair continues to stay in red zone, close to its 4-month lows, marked at 0.6985 spot last week, as buying interest around the greenback, additionally boosted by positive US unemployment rate, continues to dominate across the market at the start of this working week. On the other hand, bullish rally of oil prices, which have refreshed their multi-year highs, offers some support to the commodity-linked Kiwi, thus limiting further downside moves of the pair. The next risky event of the pair is RBNZ meeting, which is scheduled for Thursday, but today the economic calendar won’t offer us anything relevant, leaving the pair at the mercy of market trend.
The AUD/USD pair is the worst performer of this trading session, moving in the direction of it yearly lows, located on the level of 0.7473. This Monday, the pair again came under bearish pressure after 3 consecutive days at a profit on the back of renewed buying interest around the US dollar. Moreover, bloc of mixed data from the Australian economy also collaborated with pair’s recent retreat. In the longer term, it is expected that the pair will keep its bearish tone on the back of increased divergence between the Fed and RBA, as the US regulator is expected to implement 2 rate hikes this year, while the Australian bank will keep its interest rate flat. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar won’t bring us anything important, so investors will focus their attention on the Australian retail sales data due for release during the next Asian trading session.
Major events of the day:
None
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1870 R. 1.2040
USDJPY S. 108.35 R. 109.61
GBPUSD S. 1.3432 R. 1.3632
USDCHF S. 0.9934 R. 1.0054
AUDUSD S. 0.7460 R. 0.7598
NZDUSD S. 0.6961 R. 0.7081
USDCAD S. 1.2783 R. 1.2947
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