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Wednesday, April 18th
The EUR/USD pair has been trading back and forth so far this week, having faced another resistance at 1.2382 spot in early Europe. It seems that the greenback has finally found support on the back of easing talks over the US-China trade war, as the market lacks any headlines regarding further escalation of the conflict. Adding to this, increased investors’ interest to risky assets puts some extra pressure on the common currency, thus limiting pair’s further upside correction. In the day ahead, the EZ will offer investors important inflation data, which will be able to help the pair to determine its further direction. On the other hand, the US has prepared for today only secondary data releases and several Fedspeaks, which expectedly won’t attract any attention, thus leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend.
The USD/CAD pair bounced off its 2-month lows, marked yesterday on the level of 1.2527, and managed to recover some pips on the back of typical cautiousness ahead of BoC meeting. It is expected that the Canada’s regulator will show bullish stance regarding its further monetary policy today. Positive inflationary dynamics, strong oil prices, easing uncertainty on NAFTA and positive data from the labor market - all these make possible for the BoC to consider a potential rate hike in the near future. Moreover, mildly bullish bias of the US dollar also contributes to pair’s slight recovery this Wednesday. Besides today’s BoC interest rate decision, investors will also pay attention to the US crude oil stockpiles, which will help the commodity-linked Loonie to form its further trajectory.
The GBP/USD pair lost its bullish momentum and retreated yesterday from its post-Brexit highs, marked at 1.4376 spot, on the back of mixed data from the UK labor market and slight recovery of the US dollar. However, the pair found some support in the region of 1.4280 and today trades with a mildly bullish bias, as the recovery in risk sentiment allows the higher-yielding pound to regain its positions near the level of 1.4300. Meanwhile, today we have a set of important UK data due for release in the European session, which will be able to indicate on further BoE monetary policy tightening. Today all traders’ attention will remain glued to the UK inflation data, while the US data calendar won’t offer investors anything relevant, so widespread trend will remain the key determinant for the pair during the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair was mostly flat in Asia, trading within the range of 0.7759-74. The pair was stuck in its intraday corridor due to confrontation of bulls and bears this Wednesday. On the one hand, slight recovery in risk sentiment supports higher-yielding Aussie. On the other hand, ongoing speculations regarding recent RBA minutes, which once again repeated that there is no need to adjust current rate, are playing the role of a negative factor for the pair. Adding to this, attempts of the US dollar to recover the ground across the market also limit any gains of the pair this Wednesday. On the data front, today the US data calendar won’t offer anything interesting, so investors will remain in anticipation of Australia’s employment change numbers, which will be able to spark some volatility during the next Asian session.
Major events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
BoC Interest Rate Decision – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2294 R. 1.2450
USDJPY S. 106.70 R. 107.36
GBPUSD S. 1.4221 R. 1.4411
USDCHF S. 0.9542 R. 0.9738
AUDUSD S. 0.7742 R. 0.7804
NZDUSD S. 0.7300 R. 0.7392
USDCAD S. 1.2501 R. 1.2603
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