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Friday, January 19th
The EUR/USD pair extends its rebound from weekly lows, marked at 1.2165 spot a day before, on the back of renewed sell-off of the greenback. Recent weakness of the US dollar is mainly explained by new-fashioned market trend, caused by speculations that the Federal Reserve no longer the only central bank, which intends to raise its interest rate. However, further growth of the pair looks capped, as investors start gradually to shift their attention to the ECB interest rate decision, which is scheduled for next week. Expected that the regulator will keep its rate unchanged, while any dovish comments from the ECB President M.Draghi will notably weight on the common currency. Looking ahead, today we will have another quiet session, as both economic calendars won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so broad market trend will remain the key determinant for the pair at the end of this week.
The GBP/USD pair continues to move northward, trying to regain the region of its post-Brexit vote highs. The latest upside trend of the pair is mainly attributed to the renewed weakness of the US dollar versus its major rivals after several unsuccessful attempts to correct its positions, seen earlier this week. Adding to this, positive comments of the UK PM T.May regarding Brexit issue also contribute to the latest bullish trend of the pair. Mrs. May stressed during a brief press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron that Brexit wouldn’t affect close relations between two countries. Now all traders’ attention shifts towards UK retail sales numbers, however, it will be the only important release for today, so US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair this Friday.
The dollar/yen pair keeps its offered tone for the second day in a row, following broad market trend. Seems that US bulls again lost the control over the market, allowing most major currencies to benefit from the weakness of the greenback, and the yen is no exception. Adding to this, slightly increased demand for safety provides support to the yen, thus exerting extra pressure on the pair. In the day ahead, the economic calendar won’t offer investors anything important at the last day of this trading week, so the US dollar price dynamics will remain a sole driving factor for the pair during this trading session.
The AUD/USD pair remains the top gainer of this trading session, re-entering the area of its 4-month highs, marked at 0.8023 spot earlier this week. The main reason of pair’s latest upside rally remains renewed weakness of the US dollar, which is dominating the market at the final working day of this week. However, further growth of the pair looks limited on the back of subdued dynamics on the commodity market, especially of oil prices, which exerts some negative pressure on the resource-linked Aussie. On the data front, today the US economic calendar will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of greenback price dynamics during this session.
Major events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2122 R. 1.2322
USDJPY S. 110.29 R. 111.89
GBPUSD S. 1.3759 R. 1.3979
USDCHF S. 0.9518 R. 0.9700
AUDUSD S. 0.7916 R. 0.8048
NZDUSD S. 0.7213 R. 0.7363
USDCAD S. 1.2365 R. 1.2511
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