(14 JANUARY 2018)The Thought of weeken:Bitcoin: Owner's pride, neighbor's envy?
2017 was a breakout year for cryptocurrencies.
Despite a solid year for most asset classes and portfolios, investors have watched cryptocurrencies' recent gains with a tangible sense of envy. Following high-profile price rallies that have attracted widespread global media coverage, names like Bitcoin and Ethereum have increasingly entered the investment vocabulary. But while we see potential in the underlying blockchain technology, investors should steer clear of speculating in cryptocurrencies, which appear to be in a speculative price bubble.
The reasons being firstly, cryptocurrency has limited real-world use, high turnover, and extraordinary price volatility suggesting many buyers are seeking speculative gain, creating the risk of a collapse in value, in our view.
Second, cryptocurrency price swings cut both ways – Bitcoin has seen more than 10 declines of 30% or more, including two losses of 90%. Lastly, the supply of an individual cryptocurrency is often limited, but with thousands of competitors, the broader stock of cryptocurrencies is not.
Hence, CIO recommends against speculating on either side of the cryptocurrency bubble; markets can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent. We instead advise investing in the underlying blockchain technology, which we expect will generate USD 300–400bn of global economic value by 2027.
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With limited centralized control and no single geographic base, state-level regulatory efforts have so far had more lasting impact on individual exchanges than on the underlying cryptocurrencies.
By UBS
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