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Friday, January 12th
The EUR/USD pair extends its sharp bullish rally, having refreshed its 3-year highs at 1.2137 spot this morning. Yesterday the pair received strong bullish impetus following hawkish ECB minutes, which showed confidence amid Bank’s members regarding further inflation growth. Moreover, the ECB December meeting protocols noted that the regulator is considering a gradual adjustment in the forward guidance to better reflect the improved growth prospects. The regulator admits that forward guidance could be revisited early in 2018. Moreover, ongoing softness of the US dollar, additionally boosted by downbeat US PPI data, also provides some support to the major currency pair at the end of this week. Looking ahead, today the US has prepared us another bloc of important releases, such as inflation data and retail sales numbers, which will help the pair to form its further trajectory during the NA session.
The GBP/USD pair keeps positive tone at the last working day of the week, extending its upside trend for the second consecutive day. The main reason of pair’s recent growth remains broad weakness of the US dollar, triggered by hawkish interpretation of the ECB protocols, published a day before. Moreover, recent drop of the greenback could also be explained by lower-then-expected US producer price index, which was also released on Thursday. However, ongoing concerns surrounding Brexit are still weighing the UK currency, thus limiting pair’s further gains. On the data front, today the UK calendar won’t provide us with anything noteworthy, while the US will publish a slew of crucial data, which will be able to form further market trend.
The USD/JPY pair remained broadly silent during the Asian session, consolidating its positions within 111.20-35 range. Bearish trend of the pair, seen this week, could be mainly attributed to BoJ's announcement of a tweak to its asset purchases and broad weakness of the US dollar. However, it seems that the pair has finally stalled its recent retreat, as investors keep cautious stance ahead of the key release of this Friday – the US inflation data, scheduled on the NY session. Meanwhile, ongoing weakness of the US dollar is still persisting across the market, thus limiting any chances of the pair of further recovery. Besides the US inflation, today the US retail sales numbers will also be able to attract investors’ attention and bring some fresh impetus to the pair during the NA trading session.
The NZD/USD pair finally stalled its upside trend after meeting resistance at its 4-month tops, marked on the level of 0.7276. It seems that broad weakness of the US dollar is still gripping the market at the end of this week, thus allowing the pair to refresh its recent highs. Moreover, positive Chinese trade balance numbers also added some positive sentiments around the Kiwi, as China is the main business partner of New Zealand. However, the pair failed to extend its recent bullish dynamics on the back of slight correction of oil prices from its multiyear tops that exerted some negative pressure on commodity-linked Kiwi. Today all traders’ attention will remain glued to the US inflation data, which will be able to bring some volatility across the market during the NA session.
Major events of the day:
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1875 R. 1.2139
USDJPY S. 110.56 R. 112.24
GBPUSD S. 1.3418 R. 1.3616
USDCHF S. 0.9684 R. 0.9854
AUDUSD S. 0.7814 R. 0.7934
NZDUSD S. 0.7154 R. 0.7316
USDCAD S. 1.2463 R. 1.2619
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