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Tuesday, December 5th
The EUR/USD pair regained bearish tone in early Europe, as the greenback caches fresh bids on Tuesday. Yesterday the pair managed to recover some losses on the back of corrective slide of the US dollar, however, the correction did not last long, as US bulls are still full of steam. On the other hand, further retreat of the pair may appear capped, as strong gains of the euro in the cross with the pound, backed by renewed uncertainty over the Brexit deal, are providing some correlational support to the main currency pair. Looking ahead, today the EU calendar will offer only secondary data reports, leaving the pair at the mercy of greenback price dynamics, while the US will publish the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data, which will be able to lend some short-term directional impetus later today.
The AUD/USD pair experienced pretty volatile session and eventually became the top gainer, having refreshed its 3-week highs at 0.7654 spot, on the back of RBA statement and a slew of macro data. As it was widely expected, the Central Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged, however, keeping slightly hawkish stance on inflation. The RBA admitted that inflation is likely to remain low for some time, however, still forecasting gradual pickup in inflation. Moreover, strong Australian retail sales numbers and China services PMI, published in Asia, additionally boosted demand for the Aussie. Attention now turns towards the US ISM services PMI due later in the NA session, while recent economic releases and the RBA monetary policy statement will remain as key determinants for the pair during day.
The GBP/USD pair continues to lose points after yesterday’s shake-up. On Monday, the British pound came under strong selling pressure following Brexit headlines, saying that meeting between EU’s J.C.Juncker and PM T.May ended without any progress, thus increasing market’s concerns over Brexit deal. However, positive Brexit outcome is still possible, as both sides admitted that they are still confident they would reach an agreement ahead of the EU Summit, scheduled next week. However, further retreat of the pair may appear capped on the back of increased demand for higher-yielding assets, which lends some support to the risky pound. Now immediate focus shifts towards the UK service PMI report for fresh short-term impetus, while the release of the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will also be able to bring some trading opportunities during the NA session. Besides macroeconomic releases, investors will also pay attention to any Brexit developments, which may trigger sharp moves of the pound across the board.
The USD/JPY pair trims losses today, as yen remains under bearish pressure lately. Yesterday the pair performed slight downside correction on the back of the US dollar retreat across the market after bullish start of the week. However, the yen came under renewed pressure after slightly dovish BoJ Governor H.Kuroda comments on further Bank’s monetary policy program. Moreover, renewed optimism surrounding higher-yielding assets, backed by upbeat China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI report, added some extra pressure on the safe-haven yen. On the other hand, pickup in risk sentiments may appear limited, as we are heading towards crucial US NFP report that brings some cautiousness amid investors. Today the US will release ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which is likely to bring some fresh trading opportunities during the NA session, while broad market sentiments and USD price actions will continue to navigate the pair on Tuesday.
The main events of the day:
UK Services PMI – 11.30 (GMT +2)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1807 R. 1.1907
USDJPY S. 111.89 R. 113.33
GBPUSD S. 1.3350 R. 1.3602
USDCHF S. 0.9759 R. 0.9913
AUDUSD S. 0.7562 R. 0.7632
NZDUSD S. 0.6824 R. 0.6886
USDCAD S. 1.2614 R. 1.2756
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