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Monday, October 23rd
The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control on Monday, as continuing political uncertainty surrounding Spain and positive mood of the US dollar are limiting pair’s chances to recover its positions. Recent comments of Spanish authorities, stating that the government agreed to implement Article 155, which allows the central government to take control of Catalonia, are pointing on escalation of the conflict on the political field of Spain. These developments play the role of negative factor for the euro, thus limiting pair’s further recovery. Moreover, ongoing optimism around the greenback, triggered by the approval of the US Senate 2018 budget blueprint, which gives a greenlight to long-awaited US President D.Trump’s tax reforms, is also contributing to pair’s retreat. On the data front, today the economic calendar will remain broadly silent, so any headlines about developments in Spain and the US dollar dynamics will be key navigators for the pair during this trading session.
The USD/JPY pair opened today with a bullish gap in the vicinity of 114.00 level, following Japan’s snap elections and improved risk appetite. As it was widely expected, PM S.Abe's Liberal Democratic Party gained an absolute majority of votes, so the market has already managed to price-in its victory. In terms of monetary policy, this is potentially negative factor for the yen, as it means further implementation of ultra-easing measures of monetary policy. In this regard, Japan’s policymakers have already claimed that the authorities intend to accelerate the implementation of "abenomics", calling the economy as the highest priority for the government. These events provoked demand for higher-yielding assets that additionally weighed the Japanese yen across the market. However, the pair was not able to keep its positions above the level of 114.00 and retreated to the area of 113.70 during Asia, as investors took profits off the table after a predictable outcome of recent events. Looking ahead, today we have absolutely empty data calendar, so the pair will continue to trace broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics during this trading session.
The NZD/USD pair once again refreshed its 5-month lows at 0.6913 level this morning, but managed to regain its positive tone and to recover about 60 pips. Recall, the pair came under strong selling pressure last week as the leader of NZ First W.Peters after month of negotiations finally made a decision to form the coalition with Labour, which triggered a sharp sell-off of the Kiwi in wake of unclear prospects of further actions of the new government. However, seems that the pair has recovered ground and now is navigating towards its psychological level of 0.70 on the back of renewed risk appetite and short-term recovery after massive downside rally, seen last week. In absence of any relevant macroeconomic releases from the US side, the pair will remain influenced by broad market trend, while the NZ market will continue to stay closed due to observance of Labour Day.
The GBP/USD pair extends its Friday’s positive trend, trying to consolidate its positions above the level of 1.3200, as several factors are supporting the pound today. Renewed demand for higher-yielding assets was key theme of the Asian session that allowed pound bulls to take control over the pair. Moreover, shadow of soft Brexit, underpinned by optimistic comments of UK PM T.May, who stated that the UK respects the financial commitment made to the EU, is also positively affecting the pair lately. On the other hand, ongoing optimist around the US, triggered by recent tax reform developments, limits pair’s gains at the first working day of the week. Today both economic calendars won’t bring anything interesting, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics during this day.
The main events of the day:
New Zealand - Labour Day
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1704 R. 1.1894
USDJPY S. 112.11 R. 114.25
GBPUSD S. 1.3044 R. 1.3270
USDCHF S. 0.9711 R. 0.9915
AUDUSD S. 0.7761 R. 0.7909
NZDUSD S. 0.6901 R. 0.7065
USDCAD S. 1.2415 R. 1.2735
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