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Friday, September 15th
Today the EUR/USD pair consolidated its positions in the region of 1.1900-20 after moderate recovery from its 2-week lows, marked at 1.1838 on Thursday. Yesterday the pair came under selling pressure after the US economy released CPI figures, which came above markets expectations. This data from the US economy has lifted Fed rate hike expectations by the end this year, which undoubtedly is a positive factor for the US dollar. However, the pair managed to recover a smile and bounced off its recent lows on the back of prevailing risk-off sentiments, underpinned the news of another North Korean missile launch. Today Eurozone’s docket will bring only several secondary tier reports, while the US will release key retail sales numbers, which will be able to set up pair’s next short term trend during the NA trading session.
The GBP/USD pair remains in a bid tone on Friday, benefiting from yesterday’s BoE meeting. Currently the pair is trading near the level of 1.3455, which was last seen in June 2016. Yesterday the BoE left its interest rate on its current level, fully matching market’s expectations, while accompanying statement showed that the MPC remains optimistic regarding UK economic growth pace, which appeared extremely supportive to the pound. All MPC members believe that the interest rate increase will be implemented faster than currently expected, if the economy continues to develop in line with August’s forecast. Adding to this, the pound is still benefiting from the UK August inflation figures that exceeded market expectations on Wednesday. However, further pair’s upside may appear capped, as renewed geopolitical tensions around Korean Peninsula are negatively affecting higher-yielding UK currency. Since the main events for the pound have passed, investors will continue to digest the outcome of yesterday’s BoE meeting, while the US retail sales data will be able to bring some impetus during the NA session.
The USD/CHF pair was consolidating its positions in the region of 0.9630-45 during the Asian session, after yesterday’s “dovish” outcome of the SNB meeting, which allowed the pair to refresh its 3-week highs at 0.9705 mark. On Thursday, as it was widely expected, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rates unchanged. However, in its Monetary Policy Assessment the Central Bank noted that current exchange level of the Franc remains too high, also reiterating its readiness to intervene in the FX market, if necessary. However, the pair quickly reversed SNB-led spike, having lowered to its key support level of 0.9600, as the Swiss Franc benefited from increased risk aversion, underpinned by another N.Korean missile launch. Now focus turns towards the US retail sales numbers, which will be released during the NA session, but until then the pair will continue tracing broad market trend to determine its further direction.
The dollar/yen pair regained its positive tone in Asia and recovered back above the key 110.00 psychological mark, as the dollar continues to benefit from the upbeat US CPI print for August. Recently the pair came under strong selling pressure on the back of latest headlines that N.Korean missiles once again intruded Japanese airspace, provoking strong risk aversions across the market. However, the pair managed to recover its previous losses, as increased odds of the Fed rate hike by the end of this year, boosted by positive US inflation prints, exert support to the pair at the end of this week. On the data front, today investors will look forward to important US macro data, while risk-off trend and US dollar price dynamics will remain as key determinants for the pair during this trading session.
The main events of the day:
US Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1807 R. 1.1977
USDJPY S. 109.47 R. 111.41
GBPUSD S. 1.3054 R. 1.3576
USDCHF S. 0.9563 R. 0.9739
AUDUSD S. 0.7932 R. 0.8052
NZDUSD S. 0.7144 R. 0.7302
USDCAD S. 1.2103 R. 1.2269
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