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Thursday, March 9th
The EUR/USD pair bounced off its recent lows, marked at 1.0525 spot in early Europe, and now is trading around mid-point of 1.05. The major currency pair is staying directionless, as traders are remaining in anticipation of key risk event of this day – the ECB monetary policy decision, with following ECB President M.Draghi’s conference. Expected that the ECB will keep its rate and QE program unchanged, while any monetary policy outlook improvements, considering growth of inflation and solid manufacturing data, will be able to determine next legs of directional move for the pair. Moreover, today besides ECB meeting, the EU Summit will also take place, where main themes for the discussion will be Greece and Brexit.
The USD/CAD pair pulled back slightly, having faced resistance at 1.3500 level this morning. However, the Looney remains highly pressured lately, as numerous factors are collaborating with pair’s further growth. Yesterday the positive US ADP report fueled market’s expectations of better NFP numbers, which in its turn will be able to provide some clues on Fed rate hike at the upcoming meeting. Moreover, solid increase in US Crude Oil Inventories forced the commodity-linked Looney to extend its drop vs. American neighbor, despite positive data from Canadian housing market, also seen yesterday. Today only secondary data reports are scheduled in event calendar from both sides, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s sentiments during this trading session.
The AUD/USD pair remains in a red territory, however, having managed to recover some pips in early Europe. Seems that bears have took a breather after strong rally, triggered by another set of poor Chinese data, allowing the pair to recover some ground from six-week lows, posted at 0.7503 handle this morning. Moreover, chances that the Fed will increase its rate on the next week remains at 90% mark, underpinning US dollar’s positions across the market. With lack of fundamentals in today’s docket the pair will remain influenced by USD price dynamics, while investors are awaiting for Friday’s payrolls data for fresh near-term trading opportunities.
The pound continues to lose ground against its American peer for the fourth session in a row in wake of ongoing demand for the US currency. Today poor Chinese inflations figures, following yesterday’s disappointing trade balance data, prolonged risk-off trend across the market, thereby negatively influencing the pound. Moreover, ongoing demand for the USD, underpinned by yesterday’s upbeat ADP jobs report, is also adding some bearish pressure to the pair. Today’s docket remains relatively empty, so now all focus turns on the ECB policy decision, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair.
The main events of the day:
ECB Interest Rate Decision – 14.45 (GMT +2)
ECB Press Conference – 15.30 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0509 R. 1.0589
USDJPY S. 113.09 R. 115.41
GBPUSD S. 1.2098 R. 1.2248
USDCHF S. 1.0109 R. 1.0173
AUDUSD S. 0.7470 R. 0.7636
NZDUSD S. 0.6858 R. 0.7004
USDCAD S. 1.3359 R. 1.3567
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